From yesterday's Financial Times article, “EU economy falls behind global rivals due to complacency.”
“One year on, Europe is . . . in a harder place,” Draghi told a news conference on Tuesday. “Our growth model is fading. Vulnerabilities are mounting . . . and we have been reminded, painfully, that inaction threatens not only our competitiveness but our sovereignty itself.” “Too often, excuses are made for this slowness. We say it is simply how the EU is built. Sometimes inertia is even presented as respect for the rule of law,” Draghi added. “That is complacency.” https://lnkd.in/e3facfZk
As highlighted by @AndreasSteno on X, the credit impulse is turning positive.
That is not what you normally see in a slowdown...
Happy FOMC day.
Stocks: all-time high Home Prices: all-time high Gold: all-time high Money Supply: all-time high National Debt: all-time high CPI Inflation: 4% per year since Jan 2020, 2x the Fed's "target" Time for the Fed to cut rates. Let's get this party started. Source: Trend Spider
Atlanta Fed is now projecting that Q3 GDP will be +3.4%… a massive expansion
The US economy is running HOT. But the fed is going to cut rates... Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta
China economic slowdown deepens in August
➡️ Retail sales rose 3.4% in August from a year earlier, missing analysts' estimates for a 3.9% growth and slowing from July's 3.7% growth. ➡️ China’s industrial output growth slipped 5.2%, the worst performance since August last year. ➡️ Fixed-asset investment, reported on a year-to-date basis, expanded just 0.5%, a sharp slowdown from the 1.6% expansion in the January to July period. ➡️ China's survey-based urban unemployment rate in August came in at 5.3%. Source: CNBC
US Federal Government Spending as % of GDP...
1950s: 17%, 1960s: 18%, 1970s: 21%, 1980s: 22%, 1990s: 21%, 2000s: 20%, 2010s: 23%, 2020s: 27%. Source: Charlie Bilello
Yesterday, ECB ups inflation outlook for 2025, 2026, cuts it for 2027
2025 Inflation forecast now 2.1% (from 2%), 2026 inflation forecast now 1.7%; (prior forecast 1.6%). ECB sees 2027 at 1.9% (prior estimates 2%). Source: HolgerZ, Bloomberg
Initial jobless claims spiked today, but ex Texas, they look normal for this time of year
Per the Texas Workforce Commission, filings for Disaster Unemployment Assistance related to the lethal floods in the Texas Hill Country earlier this summer were due by September 4... Source: Bespoke
