The EU owns 40% of us debt
Source: Bloomberg
GS says very small effects of the 10% tariff on Europe
"While implementation is highly uncertain, we estimate that a 10% tariff would lower real GDP in the affected European countries by 0.1-0.2% via lower exports. The inflation effects would likely be very small and a Taylor rule would point to modestly lower policy rates, all else equal." Source: TME
China’s GDP grew 4.5% in the October to December period, slowing from 4.8% in the third quarter, the weakest in nearly three years as consumption misses forecasts
Full-year economic output came in at 5%, meeting the official target of around 5%. Retail sales grew 0.9% in December from a year earlier, the slowest growth since late 2022. Industrial output climbed 5.2% in December, topping expectations for a 5% growth. Source: CNBC
The K-shaped economy is becoming even more K-shaped...
The shift towards capital away from labor is one of the reason Source chart: Blackrock
China last year registered the lowest number of births since records began
This marks the fourth consecutive year of population decline as policymakers grapple with a demographic crisis. Source: FT
Total Repo Exposure has reached an all-time high of $12.6 Trillion
Source: barchart
% of subprime auto loans that are 60 days or more overdue on their payments hit an all-time high of 6.65%
Source: Barchart
The Great American Oil Paradox
The U.S. is executing a unique energy “double-play,” exporting massive amounts of light, sweet shale crude while still importing heavy, sour oil to match its legacy refinery infrastructure. This paradox being both a top exporter and importer makes the country the central hinge of the global oil market. Far from a weakness, this interdependence gives the U.S. leverage, allowing it to balance supply and influence prices worldwide as we head into 2026. Source: Jack Prandelli
