Investing at the time of high nominal growth...g all this money to build data centers with no revenue models. It's all going bust." (Clone)
BofA writes that nominal GDP is in the midst of a 75% boom in 7 years, from $20tn in ‘20 to $35tn in ‘27... In that kind of macro context, equities historically outperformed bonds. Period. Source: BofA, zerohedge
There is a manufacturing boom underway in America.
Source: Anthony Pompliano
The 189K initial jobless claims print yesterday was the lowest print since 1969 !
Meanwhile, Meta, Nike, Morgan Stanley, Amazon all cutting heads. But the number still prints like full employment !!! So what's going on? It seems the "low-hire low-fire" economy is turning as a "roach motel" for the unemployed: can't get in, can't get out. 💀 Source: Markets & Mayhem
On the other side of the world, China’s economic signals are shifting.
While trade dynamics fluctuate, attention is turning to its energy position. Estimates suggest China holds roughly 1.4 billion barrels in oil reserves—enough to cover about six months in a worst-case disruption scenario . At the same time, efforts by BRICS nations to move away from the U.S. dollar in oil trade have made limited progress, with the dollar still dominating global transactions. China has long relied on discounted oil imports from countries like Iran and Venezuela, but geopolitical pressures may complicate that strategy. Amid global tensions and proxy conflicts, the broader strategic rivalry between the U.S. and China remains a defining theme. Source: NY Times, Rothmus on X
US economic data keeps surprising to the upside, while European data keeps surprising to the downside.
That gap just keeps growing, according to Bloomberg economic surprise indexes. Source: Bloomberg, Lisa Abramowicz
The Fed expanded the money supply by nearly $9 trillion under Powell.
Inflation has averaged >4% per year over the past 6 years. Powell's explanation? It was nearly all due to rolling “supply shocks" over which the Fed has no control. The truth: this inflation was made in Washington as it always is - from too much government borrowing/spending and too much government creation of money. Source: Charlie Bilello
Young talents, don't believe all the negative headlines of AI killing jobs for graduates. Unemployment rate for 20-24 years in the US is actually plummeting...
Source: BofA
Market based inflation expectations are rising across the curve (1,2,5,10 year).
Source: Bloomberg, RBC
