Syz the moment

This is roughly half the historical average of ~33 days dating back to 1990. Meanwhile, oil prices are still almost 30% above the target price the US is set to refill… Source: The Kobeissi Letter

Does it mean that the market sees higher oil prices as a "growth killer" and thus disinflationary at some stage? Source chart: TME, Refinitiv

As tweeted by The Kobeissi Letter, Russia and 3OPEC are now cutting a massive 4 million barrels per day of crude oil production. This is the highest level of production cuts outside of recessions over the last two decades. As Saudi Arabia and Russia extend production cuts of 1.3 million barrels per day, supply is going to remain limited for a while. OPEC has proven multiple times over the last three years that they are committed to higher oil prices. Source: The Kobeissi Letter, JP Morgan

Source: Visual Capitalist

The largest US bank expects the global oil deficit hitting a record 7mmb/d in 2030, a staggering shortfall which would require prices to rise higher... much higher. In a nutshell: JPM is reiterating their $80/bbl LT target and their view framed in Supercycle IV that the upside risk to oil is $150/bbl over the near to medium term term and $100/bbl LT. The primary drivers of their structural thesis are : 1) higher for longer rates tempering the flow of capital into new supply, 2) higher cost of equity driving elevated Cash Breakevens of >$75/bbl Brent (post buybacks) as companies return structurally more cash to shareholders, in turn, pushing the marginal cost of oil higher, 3) Institutional and policy led pressures driving an accelerated transition away from hydrocarbons and peak demand fears. Taken together, their corollary is a self-reinforcing ‘higher-for-longer’ energy macro outlook as the industry struggles to justify large investments beyond 2030. Consequently, they forecast a 1.1mbd S/D gap in 2025 widening to 7.1mbd in 2030 driven by both a robust demand outlook and limited supply sources.

With Diesel prices already soaring, recently sending the diesel crack to 2023 highs and assuring that refiners have another blowout quarter, Russia just handed a gift to the Exxons of the world when it "temporarily banned" exports of the diesel in a bid to stabilize domestic supplies, adding pressure on already tight global fuel markets. “Temporary restrictions will help saturate the fuel market, that in turn will reduce prices for consumers” in Russia, the government’s press office said on its website. The "temporary" ban, which also applies to gasoline, comes into force today, Sept. 21, and doesn’t have the final date, according to the government decree, signed by Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin. Source: www.zerohedge.com, Bloomberg

Source: J-C Parets

Source: The Macro Guy