3 scenarios on Iran War by UBS
1. Quick de-escalation: Hormuz flows resume quickly; Brent averages ~$80 in March then mid-$70s, while TTF gas falls from ~€50 to high-€30s as inventories cushion short-term disruptions. 2. ~1-month Hormuz disruption: Markets tighten; Brent rises above $100 in March and TTF gas approaches €80, with faster inventory drawdowns and delayed normalization. 3. Extended disruption / infrastructure damage: Severe supply shock; Brent could reach $150+ by 2Q26 and TTF ~€80, creating a crisis similar to the 2022 European gas shock. ➡️ One thing is clear: OVX is not pricing the de-escalation scenario, closing at 121. Source. UBS, TME
The history of WTI Crude oil geopolitical spikes
Source: Evan @StockMKTNewz Leverage Shares
This is what Bloomberg thinks oil prices could be if the strait of Hormuz is shut for different time periods
1 month - ~$105 per barrel 2 months - ~$140 3 months - ~$165 Source: Evan Evan StockMKTNewz Bloomberg Economics
Korean stocks volatility trades like oil volatility
The KOSPI “VIX” currently trades more like an oil volatility proxy than a traditional equity vol index. Latest note on Korea here. Source: LSEG Workspace, TME
IEA Plans Record Oil Release, But Supply Shock May Persist
The IEA proposes releasing 400 million barrels—the largest ever—to ease crude prices amid the U.S.-Israel–Iran conflict. Yet with 18–20 mb/d of disrupted supply through the Strait of Hormuz, even coordinated G7 releases (~2.2 mb/d over six months) can only partially offset the shock, cooling but not stopping the oil rally. Source: WSJ, Bloomberg, Joumanna Bercetche
Fed Faces Uncertain Path as Inflation Data Lags Reality
February CPI data shows inflation cooling and core CPI at 2.5%, suggesting possible Fed rate cuts. But the report predates the U.S.–Iran conflict and oil spike. With softening jobs and rising energy costs, Fed policymakers face a tough March 18 decision amid conflicting signals between outdated data and current global shocks. Source: Bull Theory, Crypto Rover
Everyone keeps asking the wrong question about Iran. “Why hasn’t Trump crippled Iran’s oil exports?”
Kharg Island handles about 90% of Iran’s oil exports, making it a critical but vulnerable target. Striking it could quickly cripple Iran’s oil economy. However, it has not been attacked because doing so could trigger retaliation against Gulf energy infrastructure and cause a surge in global oil prices. Some analysts suggest the strategy is to preserve Iran’s oil assets rather than destroy them. Source: FT, Mario Nawfal
Today, oil printed one of the biggest shooting star candles we have ever seen
* $35 range * Rockets 30% higher Sunday night (green) * Crashes 30% the rest of the day (red). Source: Jim Bianco @biancoresearch
