BREAKING: US oil futures surge above $85/barrel after reports of a retaliatory strike by Israel in Iran.
Iran has just suspended all flights to Tehran, Isfahan and Shiraz. Stock market futures are down nearly 1% on the news. Source: The Kobeissi Letter
Oil prices are now down nearly 10% from their highs as fears over higher interest rate policy spread.
With markets now seeing less than 2 rate cuts in 2024, demand outlook is questionable. This has put oil prices at their lowest level since March 28th. However, prices are still up more than 15% from their February 2024 lows. Source: The Kobeissi Letter
Will the big deflationary wave out of China offset the inflationary pressures stemming from rising oil prices and hot job market in the US?
Source: Michel A.Arouet
Looks like saudi arabia's balance of payments breakeven oil price (oil price that avoids a current account deficit) is now close to $85 a barrel...
This could explain why there is some scale back from NEOM + the need for oil prices to stay higher for longer... Source: Brad Setser
Oil-related stocks are cooking now!
Exxon $XOM, Conocophillips $COP, and Hess $HES have all formed Golden Crosses Source: Barchart
Below the relative chart of oil ETF $USO vs. S&P 500 ETF $SPY and the relative chart of oil stocks XLE vs. S&P 500 ETF $SPY.
Both just hit a 4.month relative high Source: J-C Parets
BREAKING: Oil prices have officially broken above $85.00 for the first time since October 2023.
Since the December 2023 low, oil prices are up over 25% as geopolitical tensions have escalated. This comes as PPI, CPI and PCE inflation all posted year-over-year increases in February. Demand forecasts are being raised and supply disruption risks continue to rise. Higher oil prices are simply just the new normal in the post-pandemic world. Is the fight against inflation really over? Source: The Kobeissi Letter
Oil prices are now up 17% this year and well above $80/barrel again.
OPEC remains committed to production cuts and geopolitical tensions have threatened supply. Meanwhile, global demand forecasts are being raised and inflation is rebounding. Even as non-OPEC production is at record highs, oil prices continue to skyrocket. It seems like high oil prices are just the new normal for consumers. And it is not gooing to help healdine inflation to move back to the Fed's target. Source: The Kobeissi Letter
