Goldman Sachs models a scenario where the Strait of Hormuz remains disrupted through late 2027.
Under these conditions, they project Brent crude could spike above $120/bbl by Q4 2026, before settling at an average of ~$100/bbl throughout 2027. This contrasts sharply with Goldman's $80 base case, suggesting current prices still assign relatively low odds to a prolonged physical supply disruption Source: GS, TME
BRENT CRUDE OIL JUST JUMPED BACK OVER $90 PER BARREL
Source: Evan @StockMKTNewz Bloomberg
Hedge Funds going long oil at the fastest pace in a decade
Source: Barchart
The EIA just published a warning today that reported Cushing inventory may overstate how many barrels are actually usable as stocks approach tank bottom levels.
This is the exact mechanism from the storage schematic covered in the below post. The suction line near the bottom of a tank means the last portion of reported inventory was never really accessible. If Cushing tightens further, the headline barrel count will look higher than what the market can actually draw on. Watch operationally accessible barrels. Source: Jack Prandelli on X
Strait of Hormuz 🇮🇷 oil crossings (in white) have not recovered, yet oil prices (in blue) are near the levels they were pre-war.
Source: Gordon Johnson
U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) stocks fall to 43-year low
Source: Hedgeye
Saudi Arabia cut the price of its main crude grade for Asian customers, effective August, amid weakening demand and easing tensions.
It's the largest reduction in over two decades. The sharp price cut comes as pressure grows on the world's largest crude exporter, as softer demand in Asia coincides with improving supply conditions following the easing of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.Source: The Times Of India
UAE Crude Output Nears Record High Following OPEC Exit Amid Surge In Chinese Buying
Source: zerohedge