*ANDURAND LOST 52% IN APRIL FIRST HALF AS CEASEFIRE HURT OIL BET
Pierre Andurand’s hedge fund lost 52% in the first few weeks of April and is now down 37% YTD Yikes. Probably don’t deserve to call it a hedge fund at this point. Clearly not much hedging going on for Pierre Source: Negligible Capital, Bloomberg
Oil flows from the Gulf
"Estimated oil flows from the Gulf (including pipeline redirections) increased to 10.4mb/d or 45% of normal on higher Yanbu exports as Saudi East-West pipeline full pumping capacity was restored within 4 days after the damage." Source: Goldman, zerohedge
HUGE: The US exported a record 12.7 million barrels of oil per day last week amid the Iran War.
Source: Bloomberg
China's oil supply pre-war:
29% Other Middle East, Hormuz blocked 26% Rest of world , scrambling 20% Russia, back to sanction as US just confirmed 14% Saudi Arabia , 700K bpd offline 11% Iran, blockaded⚠️ That's 54% of China's oil either blocked, sanctioned or disrupted. Source: Jack Prandelli on X, Bloomberg
We can always use a bit of good news, right?
This chart from BofA shows that the US economy has become more and more resilient to oil shocks over time. Source: Markets & Mayhem
Oil and US dollar strength move in tandem, which could mitigate inflationary pressures on import prices for America.
US oil exports to hit record as Iran war triggers race for supplies. Source: Daniel Lacalle on X, Bloomberg
The US naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz is now in effect:
The US military began enforcing a blockade of all vessels entering or departing Iranian ports and coastal areas at 10 a.m. Eastern on Monday, while allowing non-Iran-bound traffic to transit the strait freely. Strait transits have collapsed to single digits per day, from ~135 in peacetime, and a full blockade could reduce that further. Asian nations, which rely on more than 80% of the energy that usually transits the strait, are bearing the brunt of the disruption, with downstream industries from fertilizers to packaging also taking a hit. The ceasefire expires on April 22, and the window for diplomacy is shrinking fast. Source: Global Markets Investor, Bloomberg
5.0 Million b/d US Exports Just Hit Record As Hormuz Flatlines
+23% above March.... In 1 month This isn't a coincidence. It's the market rerouting. Hormuz closes → Asian buyers panic → empty VLCCs race to US Gulf Coast → American crude fills the gap Source: Jack Prandelli on X, Bloomberg
