Brent crude has returned to $100 a barrel after Houthi militants attacked two Saudi tankers in the Red Sea
The attacks have widened the Middle East conflict and increased the risk of further oil supply disruptions. Shipping was already under pressure in the Strait of Hormuz because of renewed tensions between the US and Iran. The Bab el-Mandeb Strait had become an important alternative route, but more vessels are now avoiding it. Oil markets are also facing attacks on the Caspian Pipeline Consortium terminal, which handles most of Kazakhstan’s crude exports. With global inventories already reduced by months of conflict, the risk of a supply squeeze is rising. According to Saxo Bank, oil flows now face two major bottlenecks. This has pushed up the risk premium in crude prices and renewed inflation concerns. Source: zerohedge
Crude Oil only has 43 days of supply left in the U.S., the lowest inventory in 45 years 🚨 🚨
Source: Barchart, BofA
Goldman Sachs models a scenario where the Strait of Hormuz remains disrupted through late 2027.
Under these conditions, they project Brent crude could spike above $120/bbl by Q4 2026, before settling at an average of ~$100/bbl throughout 2027. This contrasts sharply with Goldman's $80 base case, suggesting current prices still assign relatively low odds to a prolonged physical supply disruption Source: GS, TME
BRENT CRUDE OIL JUST JUMPED BACK OVER $90 PER BARREL
Source: Evan @StockMKTNewz Bloomberg
Hedge Funds going long oil at the fastest pace in a decade
Source: Barchart
The EIA just published a warning today that reported Cushing inventory may overstate how many barrels are actually usable as stocks approach tank bottom levels.
This is the exact mechanism from the storage schematic covered in the below post. The suction line near the bottom of a tank means the last portion of reported inventory was never really accessible. If Cushing tightens further, the headline barrel count will look higher than what the market can actually draw on. Watch operationally accessible barrels. Source: Jack Prandelli on X
Strait of Hormuz 🇮🇷 oil crossings (in white) have not recovered, yet oil prices (in blue) are near the levels they were pre-war.
Source: Gordon Johnson
U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) stocks fall to 43-year low
Source: Hedgeye
