Syz the moment

Brent is closing in on $110 after Houthi strikes shut the Saudi East-West pipeline, with Riyadh’s output at a 30-year low of roughly 6m b/d and Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb presenting a two-front chokepoint risk. This is a supply shock, which means it doesn't fade on its own, and the WTI/10Y correlation has hit 0.96. Every barrel higher is a basis point in the long end. Then there's the quiet second claim on the same buyer pool: the AI build out. Hyperscaler capex now runs >100% of operating cash flow, implying ~$1.3tn of debt by 2028, with tech leading the $380bn 2026 bond supply, competing directly with Treasuries while bidding up chips, power and labor. The trade funding the equity bull is now financing the tightening cycle. Source: TME

$155.14 This is the only Middle Eastern crude that does not have to pass through either the Strait of Hormuz or Bab el-Mandeb. That means oil prices in the rest of the world will eventually have to catch up with Oman. Source: Karel Mercx

Source: Barchart

The stockpiles are in free fall. And if this line reaches 6.8, the global economy might get into big troubles. Source: JP Morgan,

Saudi Arabia’s East–West pipeline was reportedly shut down on Friday following recent attacks, potentially affecting around 4 million barrels per day of export capacity. At the same time, risks around the Bab el-Mandeb Strait could threaten flows of up to 9 million barrels per day, while the Strait of Hormuz is reportedly operating at roughly 20% of its pre-war capacity. Taken together, close to 30 million barrels per day of oil flows may be disrupted or exposed to disruption. There is some overlap between these routes, so the figures should not simply be added together. Still, against a global oil market of roughly 100 million barrels per day, the potential impact is significant. This does not necessarily mean a lasting supply shock—but it highlights how vulnerable global energy markets have become. Source: The Kobeissi Letter

Global tanker freight rates are surging to record levels with little respite in sight, a sign of the growing strain in oil markets as traders, shipowners, producers and buyers grapple with a drawn-out conflict in the Persian Gulf and increasingly complex workarounds. Earnings for supertankers sailing on the benchmark Middle East-to-China route are at a record of nearly $800,000 a day. Meanwhile, for the US Gulf to Asia run, charterers have been offering very large crude carriers at a record lump-sum fee of $29.5 million — close to $15 per barrel without considering additional war risks or fees for unexpected delays. (Bloomberg) Source: Tracy Shuchart (𝒞𝒽𝒾 )

Chinese oil demand has unexpectedly rebounded, pushing Shanghai crude above $100 per barrel and to a significant premium over Brent. That marks a sharp reversal from earlier in 2026, when weak Chinese imports and refining activity helped contain global oil prices. Now, Chinese buyers are aggressively competing for supplies from Africa, Canada and Latin America as Iranian exports collapse and disruption around the Strait of Hormuz persists. Some African crude grades are reportedly trading at premiums of up to $20 over Brent, while Russian ESPO prices are also strengthening. The rebound appears driven by improving refinery margins, renewed fuel exports and inventory restocking—not necessarily a full economic recovery. But the market implication is clear: Brent is approaching $100 Alternative supplies are becoming more expensive Further shipping disruptions could send prices toward $120 China may have just removed one of the biggest brakes on global oil prices. Source: Zerohedge, Bloomberg

Diesel at $240 a barrel. Gasoline at $4.10 a gallon. The US 10-year yield at 4.75%. As the economic pain mounts, the President will face growing pressure to do—or say—whatever it takes to bring oil prices down. Source: Brad Moseley