US shale oil production crossed 1 mil b/d in 2011.
Since then, Saudi's market share has been on slow but steady decline, punctuated only briefly by steep price drops in 2015-6 and 2020. How can Saudi regain market share? Either they maintain a $60+ price and see their market share continue to erode, or they increase production to reclaim market share, and see prices plummet. Either way, it's lower revenue in the short term. Should they pump more to decrease prices and regain market shares? Taking the market to <$40 again will be painful for them in the near-term, but they have the financial wherewithal to survive. Source: John Arnold on X
The U.S. crude oil and natural gas renaissance, in one panel chart...
Source: Mason Hamilton, API
Inflation expectations have diverged from crude oil prices.
Source: The Daily Shot
Another poor US Treasuries auction yesterday.
This was the trigger that pushed yields higher (despite oil prices crashing -6%...) Bond yields no longer have much to do with how strong/weak the economy is. It’s all about deficits, high government spending, and huge Treasury auctions. Source: QE infinity
With oil at $68, Russian FX reserves at/near all-time highs while Russian foreign debt, in USD, at 12+ year lows...
Source: Macrobond
Washington Post: Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has told the Biden administration he is willing to strike military rather than oil or nuclear facilities in Iran.
Oil gaps down on the new 👇 Source: Markets & Mayhem
BREAKING: Oil prices surge back above $70/barrel as investors begin pricing-in potential supply disruptions in the Middle East.
We now have a port strike, rising oil prices, aggressive Fed rate cuts and a china monetary + fiscal package. Could this combination trigger a second wave of inflation?
Investors are currently holding one of the lowest long positions in WTI oil contracts in the last ten years.
Surce; Bloomberg, Tavi Costa
