We aren't just talking about trade embargoes or "backdoor deals" anymore. We are talking about a direct naval showdown on the high seas. 🌊⚓️
Here is the situation: The U.S. is moving to seize the Marinera, a Russian-flagged tanker carrying sanctioned Venezuelan oil. Russia’s response? They deployed a submarine to escort it. 🇷🇺🇻🇪🇺🇸 The Breakdown: -> The Move: The U.S. is enforcing sanctions with physical force. -> The Counter: Moscow is signaling they will use military hardware to protect their assets. ->The Global Ripple: China is watching closely. 🇨🇳 Why this matters: This isn't just about oil prices. It’s about the shift from Economic Diplomacy to Kinetic Confrontation. If the U.S. succeeds, American sanctions become the ultimate global law. If Russia blocks them, the era of U.S. naval dominance faces its biggest test in decades. Source: Mario Nawfal on X, Reuters, @sentdefender, WSJ
30,000,000 to 50,000,000 barrels. 🛢️
That is the scale of the move Donald Trump just announced. The US is officially escalating its push into the Venezuelan oil sector. Here is the breakdown of what is happening right now: 🚀 The Move: A US flotilla is already inbound to Venezuelan waters. The goal? To load up to $3B worth of "stranded" crude and bring it directly to US docks. ⚖️ The Control: Trump has stated this money will be controlled by the White House to "benefit the people of Venezuela and the United States." Energy Secretary Chris Wright is already on the move to execute. 🏗️ The Crisis: Venezuela’s infrastructure is at a breaking point. Without this "relief," analysts predict a total production collapse. Storage is full. The pumps are stopping. 📉 The Market: Brent and WTI are already reacting, sliding as the world braces for the "Donroe Doctrine." The Big Debate: Is this a strategic masterstroke to stabilize a collapsing neighbor and secure US energy interests? Or, as Yale’s Jeffrey Sonnenfeld suggests, is it an "imperialistic" move in a world already facing an oil glut? One thing is certain: The "wait and see" approach to Venezuela is officially over. We are watching a real-time restructuring of global energy flows. The meeting between the Energy Secretary and Chevron executives in Miami today will likely set the tone for the next decade of South American energy. Your turn: Is this the right move for US energy security, or does it set a dangerous precedent? 👇 Let’s discuss in the comments. Source: FT
US oil stocks react to Venezuela:
1. Chevron, $CVX: +11% 2. Valero, $VLO: +11% 3. ConocoPhillips, $COP: +10% 4. Marathon, $MPC: +10% 5. Exxon Mobil, $XOM: +7% 6. Phillips 66, $PSX: +6% 7. Occidental Petroleum, $OXY: +4% 8. EOG Resources, $EOG: +4% 9. Devon Energy, $DVN: +4% 10. Kinder Morgan, $KMI: +3% These stocks have now added +$100 BILLION in market cap on the news President Maduro being captured by the US. US big oil has won again. Source: The Kobeissi Letter
The IEA’s “historic oil glut” narrative is collapsing in real time.
US production, the foundation of their entire forecast, has now been quietly revised downward. And not by a small amount. This is the largest US supply revision in the IEA’s entire history. 660,000 kbpd just for the month of September The reason: - US shale, the only global source of meaningful growth for 15 years, is peaking. - Tier 1 acreage is drilled out - Gas-to-oil ratios are exploding - Water cuts are rising across every major basin - Decline rates are accelerating as sweet spots exhaust Shale’s boom phase gave the world a decade of easy barrels, masking the fact that the rest of the world wasn’t investing. Its bust phase will do the opposite... leave a supply hole the world cannot fill in the short term.
🌍 The IEA just dropped a bombshell:
If the world stays on its current path, oil and gas demand will keep rising for the next 25 years. That’s right — no peak this decade, no major drop in CO₂ emissions, and likely no chance of keeping global warming below 1.5°C. 🔥 2024 was the hottest year on record. Yet the International Energy Agency says “climate change is rapidly declining on the global energy agenda.” Why? Governments are prioritizing energy security and affordability over climate goals. Growth of electric vehicles is slowing. Demand for energy from AI, air conditioners, and manufacturing is exploding. 📈 Under the IEA’s new “Current Policies” scenario: Oil demand grows from 100M → 113M barrels/day by 2050 EV adoption plateaus around 40% by 2035 Gas demand continues to climb Coal finally peaks — but still lingers 💡 Even so, renewables will shoulder most of the new electricity demand — especially in India, SE Asia, Latin America, and Africa. ⚠️ Translation: The clean energy revolution is real… …but fossil fuels aren’t going anywhere unless policies change fast. Source: FT
Not much improvement for the commodities-to-dow ratio
Dow Jones hit new all-time high while oil stays in a down trend. Source: Bloomberg, Finding Value Finance on X
The world’s leading energy groups are stepping up their hunt for new oil and gas reserves
As slower than expected transition to renewables sets the stage for stronger fossil fuel demand for decades to come. Source: FT
WHO RUNS THE OIL WORLD?
The US isn’t just flipping burgers - it's pumping 22.7 million barrels of oil a day, more than double Saudi Arabia or Russia. That’s 22% of the world’s supply. Saudi Arabia and Russia trail with 10.7 and 10.5 million barrels/day. Canada’s in 4th (6.0), followed by China (5.3), Iran (4.7), Iraq (4.5), and Brazil (4.3). Total world production? 102.8 million barrels a day. Which means the U.S. alone is doing over a fifth of the heavy lifting. Source: Statista thru Evan on X
