Oil product exports from the Middle East dropped 65% in March compared to February.
However, they may increase going forward. Why? Iran has recently categorized countries as: 1. Friendly; 2. Neutral; and 3. Non-friendly. Friendly countries will have free passage through the Strait of Hormuz, while neutral countries will be allowed to pass with a fee. This should enable higher levels of oil and other exports from the Middle East, but possibly still less than in February. Source: BraVoCycles Newsletter
The military budget Trump proposed today is $1.5 trillion.
Adjusted for inflation, that's $260 billion higher than the largest military budget on record. Source: Stephen Semler
Markets have historically tended to bottom well ahead of broader spillover effects.
As Andreas Steno Larsen notes, “markets typically bottom when the rate of change improves.” Source: TME
Iranian “missile hit rates against Israel have risen from 3% during the first two weeks of the war to 27%.”
Source: Carl Quintanilla
Iran's attacks on Arab countries
Source: AlMajallaEN
JP Morgan just published a countdown for when the last ships carrying il from the Middle East will reach each continent:
🇨🇳 Asia: April 1st (today) 🇪🇺 Europe: April 10th 🇺🇸 North America: April 15th 🇦🇺 Australia: April 20th Source: Rand Group @cryptorand JP Morgan
Maybe not the TACO everyone was expecting
S&P 500 futures are rallying following a Wall Street Journal report that President Donald Trump had told aides he was willing to end military hostilities in the Middle East even if the Strait of Hormuz remained largely shut. The plan to reopen the strait would stretch the conflict far beyond his projected 4-6 week timeline so instead, he’s deferring to diplomacy or shifting the burden onto allies. The United States initiated a war that shut down a critical waterway responsible for 20% of global oil shipments—and is now preparing to exit without reopening it. Five weeks. More than 3,000 dead. $200 billion requested. Over 300 Americans wounded. Oil prices have surged past $100. The risk of a global recession is climbing. Asian countries are rationing fuel. Gulf allies are enduring nightly bombardments. And the strait that sparked the entire escalation remains under Iranian control...
A broker for Pete Hegseth, the US defence secretary, attempted to make a big investment in major defence companies in the weeks leading up to the US-Israeli attack on Ira
According to three people familiar with the matter. Hegseth’s broker at Morgan Stanley contacted BlackRock in February about making a multimillion-dollar investment in the asset manager’s Defense Industrials Active ETF, the people said, shortly before the US launched military action against Tehran. The inquiry on behalf of the high-profile potential client was flagged internally at BlackRock, according to the people familiar with the matter. Note however that if this is true, he would still have lost some money (-12.7% as shown on the chart below). Source: FT, Bloomberg, RBC
