The limited flow of traffic moving through the Strait of Hormuz is now sailing exclusively through an IRGC-controlled corridor requiring specific clearance codes and an Iranian escort service.
Source: LLoyd's List
SHIPS PASSING THROUGH THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ
🟢 Feb 26 → 🚢 132 🟢 Feb 27 → 🚢 128 🟠 Feb 28 → 🚢 98 🟠 Mar 01 → 🚢 18 🟠 Mar 02 → 🚢 7 🔴 Mar 03 → 🚢 2 🔴 Mar 04 → 🚢 2 🔴 Mar 05 → 🚢 1 🔴 Mar 06 → 🚢 0 🔴 Mar 07 → 🚢 1 🔴 Mar 08 → 🚢 2 🔴 Mar 09 → 🚢 1 🔴 Mar 10 → 🚢 2 🔴 Mar 11 → 🚢 1 🔴 Mar 12 → 🚢 0 🔴 Mar 13 → 🚢 3 🔴 Mar 14 → 🚢 1 🔴 Mar 15 → 🚢 0 🔴 Mar 16 → 🚢 1 🔴 Mar 17 → 🚢 2 🔴 Mar 18 → 🚢 1 🔴 Mar 19 → 🚢 0 🔴 Mar 20 → 🚢 1 🔴 Mar 21 → 🚢 2 🔴 Mar 22 → 🚢 3 🔴 Mar 23 → 🚢 5 🔴 Mar 24 → 🚢 6 Source: Windward Maritime Intelligence, Lloyds List, PIB India, and regional briefings.
Is the petrodollar era starting to erode?
A Deutsche Bank report questions the future of the petrodollar system, where oil trade in USD underpins global demand for the currency. Emerging shifts Middle Eastern oil flowing to Asia, countries like Russia and Iran trading outside the dollar, and Saudi Arabia considering alternatives are increasing pressure. Geopolitical tensions and risks to Gulf supply routes could accelerate change. Combined with the rise of renewables and energy independence, a gradual decline in USD dominance may reshape global financial power.Source: ZeroHedge, Deutsche Bank
Dow Chemical just doubled their polyethylene price increase, from $0.15/lb to $0.30/lb, effective April 1st. That's roughly a 60% price hike on the most widely used plastic on Earth.
LyondellBasell has gone even further, $0.35/lb in cumulative increases through May. Polyethylene is in your packaging, your water bottles, your grocery bags, your construction materials, your medical supplies. About 50% of global production capacity is now either offline or feedstock-constrained because of the Hormuz crisis. This is how a war in the Middle East shows up at your grocery store. Energy costs don't stay in the energy sector. They flow through everything you buy. Source: TFTC @TFTC21
Energy power depends on infrastructure, not reserves
In 2026, global gas reserves tell a misleading story: Russia, Iran, and Qatar hold over 50% of reserves, yet disruptions, sanctions, and conflict limit output. The US, with only ~5% of reserves, dominates through operational export terminals, LNG shipping, and intact infrastructure. The lesson: energy power comes from extraction, processing, and logistics not the size of reserves. Gas in the ground or stranded by damaged infrastructure holds no real value; the strategic asset is functional infrastructure. Source: Jack Prandelli on X
Nice infographic on Qatar LNG and Ras Laffan.
Source: S&P Global
Everyone has heard about the German carmakers' crisis.
Take a look at what's going on in its key chemical sector: production is at levels seen during the GFC, and this during good times, even before the current energy crisis. Source: Bloomberg, Michel A.Arouet
China and Iran a tangled geopolitical web
In 2017, China bought 26% of Iran's oil. Last year? 90%. Every other buyer EU, India, Japan, Korea has been sanctioned out. So when Trump asks China to send warships to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, he’s asking the one country keeping Iran financially alive to help militarily contain it. China funds Iran's war chest, while Iran mines China’s oil supply. This is one of the most tangled relationships in geopolitics, and Beijing has to choose very carefully. Source: Giacomo Prandelli
