The Stock Market is approaching a major top and a possible 1987-like crash, warns Michael Burry, the man who has predicted 60 of the last 2 market crashes
Source: Barchart
SpaceX's first print as a public company (Tue 4 Aug, after the close) was a clean operational beat that the market rejected on cash flow. That gap is the whole story.
The numbers Revenue $7.81bn, +92% YoY from $4.1bn, against ~$6.9bn consensus; EPS: loss of $0.09/share vs -$0.26 expected; net loss narrowed to $541m from $1.0bn; Adjusted EBITDA $3.5bn vs $2.0bn consensus. All three segments beat 🚀 And then: capex $18.37bn, more than six times year-ago levels, of which $15.83bn went to AI — against a $13.22bn FactSet estimates 🔥. Segment split: -> Connectivity $4.29bn (+66% YoY), 1.7m net adds with ARPU held flat at $66, enterprise/government revenue +108%, Starlink now at 12 million subscribers. -> AI $2.6bn (+247% YoY), first quarter of positive segment adjusted EBITDA at $1.1bn, helped by $1.6bn of incremental Colossus cloud services revenue. -> Space only $962m with a $205m EBITDA loss — Starship remains an R&D line, not a business. 🤔 Why the stock reversed Shares closed +9.43% at $125.33, then fell to ~$114.6 after hours — the entire day's rally erased. ➡️ Reuters framed it precisely: the concern is cash flow, or the absence of it, with analysts fearing the burn rate forces a return to markets for equity and/or debt; the bonds have already been weak, and 911.5 million insider and employee shares come free on Thursday. ⚠️ Management guided Q3 and Q4 capex to broadly match Q2 — so roughly $55bn of capex in a single year against a $100bn cash pile, most of which is IPO proceeds. Set against that, Johnsen's claim of a sub-one-year payback on compute deployments, $6.7bn of additional cloud contracts signed in the first weeks of Q3, a $100bn ARR (Annual Recurring Revenue) target for December, and the $1trn revenue projection pulled forward from 2031 to 2030. 😎 Classic Musk: the promise lengthens as the cash burn steepens. With 34% short interest on the float, the after-hours move is also positioning, not just fundamentals. ‼️ Market drivers to carry forward - Nvidia exclusivity is the cleanest read-across. Musk committed SpaceX to Vera Rubin processors exclusively, and NVDA rose ~2% after hours. - A target of 15–20GW of power and cooling online by end-2027, deliberately built ahead of GPU supply — that is a bid for turbines, transformers and grid capacity as much as for silicon. - Memory is the bottleneck, and the tape agrees. The Kospi added 4.0% overnight led by SK Hynix and Samsung, shrugging off SpaceX and AMD. 👉 My read: SpaceX is now the purest listed proxy for the AI capex question — a business with genuine cash-generative assets (Starlink at 40%+ segment margins) funding an option on compute at a burn rate no cash flow currently supports. Thursday's lockup is the near-term technical risk; the $100bn December ARR figure is the near-term fundamental test. Anyone who owns this at 1.6trn is underwriting Starship reusability and Starlink V3 economics, not this quarter's numbers. App Economy Insights
Why So Many Companies Are Failing by Avoiding Risk Instead of Pursuing Opportunity
Source: Marketoonist
Jeff Bezos sold $4,073,700,000 worth in Amazon $AMZN stock today, his first sale of stock in over a year.
Source: Trend Spider
Oil Reserves Are Still Dominated by the Giants
Proved reserves show where long-term oil power still sits Saudi Aramco remains in a league of its own with around 260 billion boe Source: Jack Prandelli on X
The Financial Times has called the end of the Magnificent Seven as an investment concept
Source: Mr Family Office
US produces 13.59 million barrels a day.
That is more than Russia and Saudi Arabia , at 10.16 million and 9.73 million. It is nearly triple Iran's 4.45 million. America is not just the largest oil producer on earth, it is exporting record volumes of that supply overseas. Source: Jack Prandelli on X
The best organisations don't reward noise, they reward impact.
As leaders, our responsibility is to ensure that excellence never goes unnoticed simply because it arrives without fanfare. Source: Robertson Hunter Stewart
