Syz the moment

2024 is 3rd best Election Q1 since 1950 tracking. Historically, there is a dip in April-May before gains till year-ned. There was only 2 losses in the last 7 months of election years since 1950 (2000 & 2008) Source: Ryan Detrick, CMT, AlmanacTrader

Following Iran's launch of approximately 300 attack drones and missiles at Israel. The New York Times reveals that despite support from some members of Israel's war cabinet for a response attack, the limited damage caused by Iran and Netanyahu's conversation with Biden resulted in the strike being called off. Source: i24 News

When the attack happened last night, bitcoin and cryptos (which are the only assets traded over the week-end) went down substantially (-10% in 30 minutes for the bitcoin). But it seems that the fact that 1) Israel and US were able to intercept the vast majority of drones and missiles; 2) Biden administration comment that they will not support any Israel counter-attack seem to calm down investors for the time being. Indeed, President Biden told Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu during a call on Saturday that the U.S. won't support any Israeli counterattack against Iran, a senior White House official told Axios. Bottom-line: Further escalation does not seem to be the core scenario at this stage. This morning, Bitcoin is back to $64k/$65k and Israeli stocks open slightly higher after Iran drone attack foiled. TA 35 index is up 0.5% after opening but trade remains nervous. However, stocks in the Arab world are down. Saudi Arabia’s main bourse opened 1.2% lower. Source: Bloomberg, HolgerZ

-> President Biden told Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu during a call on Saturday that the U.S. won't support any Israeli counterattack against Iran, a senior White House official told Axios. -> Why it matters: Biden and his senior advisers are highly concerned an Israeli response to Iran's attack on Israel would lead to a regional war with catastrophic consequences, U.S. officials said. -> A U.S. defense official earlier said U.S. forces in the region shot down Iranian-launched drones targeting Israel. -> Biden told Netanyahu the joint defensive efforts by Israel, the U.S. and other countries in the region led to the failure of the Iranian attack, according to the White House official. -> "You got a win. Take the win," Biden told Netanyahu, according to the official. -> The official said that when Biden told Netanyahu that the U.S. will not participate in any offensive operations against Iran and will not support such operations, Netanyahu said he understood. -> U.S. Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin spoke on Saturday with his Israeli counterpart Yoav Gallant and asked that Israel notify the U.S. ahead of any response against Iran, a senior Israeli official said. Source: Axios https://lnkd.in/etEV2wwm

The index is up 9% year to date which is more than DOUBLE the average YTD return in an election year. In the past, the median return during a US presidential election year was about 11%. There are still several months until the presidential election but the index is on track to significantly exceed its historical performance. Source: The Kobeissi Letter

Since the December 2023 low, oil prices are up over 25% as geopolitical tensions have escalated. This comes as PPI, CPI and PCE inflation all posted year-over-year increases in February. Demand forecasts are being raised and supply disruption risks continue to rise. Higher oil prices are simply just the new normal in the post-pandemic world. Is the fight against inflation really over? Source: The Kobeissi Letter

The decision is a massive victory for Trump, whose eligibility on Colorado's ballot was challenged. The decision was issued one day ahead of Super Tuesday when 16 states will hold primary elections. Source: Business Insider

The share of voters who strongly disapprove of President Biden’s handling of his job has reached 47%, higher than at any point in his presidency. The betting markets are now also backing Trump. PredictIt has him 6%-pts ahead. Source: Bloomberg, HolgerZ