How to go long geopolitical risk...
Goldman's US Geopolitical Risk basket (composed of US-listed equities that are sensitive to geopolitical risk, diversified across 40% defense, 40% oil producers, and 20% oil tankers) has surged to start 2026... Source: zerohedge, Bloomberg
Bonds - not oil - were the play... Venezuela debt has doubled in the last 6 months.
Source: The Long View @HayekAndKeynes
A new type of insider... the geopolitical insiders...
One of them bet $33k through Polymarkets on Venezuela-related developments and turned into $400k. It has been described as a "clear case" of insider trading. Source: Bloomberg
Conflicts watchlist 2026
Source: Epic Maps 🗺️ @theepicmap
Ayatollah Khamenei plans to flee to Moscow if Iran unrest intensifies
The report says the plan is limited to a tight inner circle with assets already positioned abroad and is modeled in part on Bashar al-Assad’s escape to Russia. It reflects growing concern over Khamenei’s health, his isolation during recent protests, and fears that economic strain and public anger could fracture loyalty inside the security apparatus. Source: Open Source Intel @Osint613
The midterm election year is without question the worst year in the four-year election cycle.
Source: Connor Bates
The most important Supreme Court decision you haven’t heard about is coming in January ⚖️
And it could trigger a massive downside risk to current tariff rates. 📉 Goldman’s latest insight suggests the "tariff era" as we know it is about to hit a major legal wall. Here is the breakdown: The Core Issue: The Supreme Court is currently reviewing the IEEPA (International Emergency Economic Powers Act). This is the "emergency" authority used to hike tariffs this year. The Likely Verdict: Oral arguments suggest a majority of Justices believe the administration exceeded its authority. What happens next? 1. The "Big Reset": If the court rules against all IEEPA tariffs, it wipes out 7.5 percentage points of the 11.4pp increase we’ve seen this year. That is a massive shift for global trade. 2. The "Specific" Limit: The court might allow tariffs for specific emergencies, but kill the idea of broad "reciprocal" tariffs. The Bottom Line: The risk to tariff rates is firmly to the downside. Even if the administration pivots to "Section 122" as a backup, rates would likely be capped at 15%. The result? A potential 1.6pp drop in the effective tariff rate almost overnight. So keep an eye on the SCOTUS docket. But let's also keep in mind that Trump administration have already prepared to retaliate. Tariffs are more about the HOW they will be implemented rather than the IF Source: Neil Sheti, Goldman
Democrats surge in midterm odds. 80% chance they take the House.
Source: Polymarket Polymarket
