This could be among the reasons the market rallied yesterday
NEW YORK TIMES: Iran offered to suspend their nuclear enrichment program for 5 years. JD Vance asked for 20. While Trump rejected the 5 year offer, a second round of talks are likely, potentially in Pakistan again, by the end of this week. ⚠️ Why is this BULLISH? The fact that Iran even offered a 5-year suspension means they are WILLING to talk. The US obviously wants more years, but all the market cares about is that a deal is reached. Maybe we settle at 10 years, maybe 20. The point is…this might now become a question of WHEN a deal is reached vs. IF it is reached. Seems like that’s what the market priced in yesterday as well as we went up 1% and continued the best stretch of momentum since October 2025. Source: amitisinvesting
US Warships that are actively in the Middle East or in transit - 23 ships.
Source: Negligible Capital
Weekend negotiations in one cartoon
Source: Guy Venables
Trump accuses Iran of violating the ceasefire agreement over the Strait of Hormuz.
Six hours ago Trump warned Iran to stop charging fees to tankers or face consequences. 1 hour later he escalated, saying "that is not the agreement we have." Source: TS
Headline relief is not the same as physical normalization.
2-week ceasefire announced. Brent dropped $13 instantly. But the market is missing the real bottleneck: 172M barrels still sitting on 187 tankers in the Gulf Those cargoes must unload first — that alone could take 14+ days Qatar LNG may not restart for 2+ weeks And even then, will tankers actually enter? Iran still controls the process Saudi + UAE still have ~4M b/d shut in UBS expects only a gradual resumption through Q2 2026. A ceasefire does not equal an open Hormuz. A ceasefire does not equal restored supply. The physical dislocation is still there. Source: UBS, Qasem Al-Ali
Why an Attack on Iran’s Power Grid Would Ripple Across the Region
Iran’s electricity grid is interconnected with several neighboring countries, so disruptions wouldn’t stay contained—they could spread beyond its borders. Key links include: • Iraq, Afghanistan, Pakistan — import Iranian power • Turkey — two-way grid connection • Armenia, Azerbaijan, Turkmenistan — tied through energy networks A major disruption could: Cause blackouts or shortages in connected countries Disrupt regional energy trade and markets Increase instability in states relying on Iranian electricity Power grids are interconnected systems, not isolated assets—so impacts are often regional, not just domestic. Source: Dr. Taimoor Zaman Khan, wikipedia
Meanwhile... Power is shifting in Vietnam, one of Asia’s fastest-growing economies. Here's why you should pay attention.
Vietnam’s new president, To Lam, has consolidated both party and state leadership — a first in decades. This move signals faster decision-making, deeper reforms, and a more centralized vision for growth. What’s happening: • Stronger leadership control • Aggressive anti-corruption drive • Government restructuring at scale (150,000 bureaucratic jobs cut; 8 ministries abolished) • Private sector pushed to the forefront. 10%+ GDP growth targeted. And he’s just getting started. Why it matters: Vietnam is a critical node in global supply chains and a key alternative to China. But with rising reliance on the US and external shocks (energy, geopolitics), the stakes are higher than ever. The big question: Can centralized power accelerate growth — without losing internal consensus? This is not the Vietnam of 10 years ago. This is a nation that has found its footing — and is now running. Vietnam is entering a defining chapter. Source: FT
Many scenarios for the end of the Iran war suggest that Tehran will gain permanent control of the Strait of Hormuz
An analysis by JP Morgan suggests that Tehran could raise up to $90 billion a year this way, instantly making Iran one of the wealthiest Gulf economies. Source: ChrisO_wiki
