According to CNBC, a looming federal government shutdown appeared even more likely after top Democrats and Republicans met with President Donald Trump at the White House on Monday.
“I think we’re headed to a shutdown because the Democrats won’t do the right thing,” Vice President JD Vance told reporters after the meeting, which came less than two days before the shutdown will begin in the absence of a funding deal. The Democratic participants, House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries and Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, likewise said that the two sides remain far apart. “We have very large differences,” Schumer said after the meeting. But he added that he believes Trump heard Democrats’ objections “for the first time,” suggesting the face-to-face was at least partially constructive. Both sides continued to assert that the other will be to blame if the government shuts down starting Wednesday. Source: CNBC, Reuters
The effective US tariff rate on China (red)
The effective US tariff rate on China (red) based on imports and estimated duties paid - has stabilized near 43%, which is up from 17% before Trump 2.0 and up from 5% before Trump 1.0 before that. The effective tariff rate on everyone else (excluding Canada and Mexico) is 14%. Source: Robin Brooks on X
LAST MINUTE: Trump to Meet Top Congressional Leaders as US Shutdown Near¨s
The top four congressional leaders will meet with President Donald Trump at the White House on Monday. *JEFFRIES: 'HOPEFUL' ABOUT AVOIDING GOVERNMENT SHUTDOWN. House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries said Sunday he is "hopeful" a government shutdown can be avoided as Congress lurches toward its Tuesday deadline to reach a spending agreement. Jeffries' comments come after President Donald Trump canceled a meeting last week with Jeffries and Senate Democratic leader Chuck Schumer to hammer out a deal before saying Saturday he'd meet with the Democrats and Senate Majority Leader John Thune and House Speaker Mike Johnson on Monday. Source: Jim Bianco
Government shutdowns all have the same cause:
Congress fails to approve new spending when previous spending bills expire. But their impact can vary based on timing, duration and quirks of the budget process that can make money available to some agencies but not others. Here's what shuts down in a shutdown - Bloomberg
President Trump rolled out a new round of tariffs:
•25% on all heavy trucks •30% on upholstered furniture •50% on kitchen cabinets, bathroom vanities, and related products •100% on branded or patented pharmaceuticals unless the company is building its manufacturing plant in the US Source: StockMarket.news
China controls close to 90% of the global rare earth market, and it has a track record of weaponizing exports when tensions rise.
Any new tariffs could invite retaliation, slower licensing, outright restrictions, or targeted disruptions that hit automakers, electronics, and magnet producers with higher costs and production delays. The ripple effects wouldn’t stop there, more expensive inputs could feed inflation and strain global supply chains. The G7 and the EU are weighing new ways to chip away at China’s rare earths dominance. Tariffs or taxes on Chinese exports are on the table along with price floors and subsidies to jump start mining and processing capacity outside Beijing’s reach. Source: StockMarket.news
US government shutdown by October 1
Source: Polymarket
Tariffs, Courts & Treasuries
A U.S. federal appeals court has ruled that the Trump administration misused emergency powers to impose tariffs that have been bringing in roughly $30 billion per month. If upheld, the decision could force Washington to repay importers and remove the steepest trade taxes in a century. The case is now on an expedited track to the Supreme Court, with a key October 14 deadline looming. What’s at stake? - Congress relied on these tariff revenues to help offset this year’s tax cuts. A rollback could leave a deeper fiscal hole, unsettling Treasury buyers. - Importers say nothing changes until the court outcome, but market uncertainty is rising. - Steel and aluminum duties (1962 Act) and other tariffs (1974 Trade Act) are not affected — the dispute centers on the 1977 emergency powers. Trade policy and fiscal stability are deeply intertwined.
