European gas futures are back near their highest level since the Iran war started
The reason: Europe is losing the LNG bidding war. Imports down 35% y/y over the last month; China's up 8%. TTF is back near its post-Iran-war high — not because Europe wants more gas, but because it has to pay up to get any. The cargoes aren't disappearing, they're just sailing east. US exporters are indifferent to which. Source: Jack Prandelli on X, Bloomberg
Prediction markets sharply lowered the perceived odds of a ground invasion, helping fuel a strong rally in the S&P 500.
Following conciliatory remarks from Iran and President Trump's announcement of a bombing pause earlier this year, investors concluded that neither side had the appetite for a prolonged ground conflict. Those odds have started to climb again, however, even as equities remain relatively resilient. Source: TME, Bloomberg/Authers
The US has said it will hit Canada with tariffs of 50 per cent on a wide range of goods in a move that threatens to reignite Donald Trump’s trade war
Senior Trump administration officials accused Canada of engaging in unfair trade practices, saying its provinces had halted the purchase of US alcohol, slapped tariffs on US cars and discriminated against American cheese. “At the outset of the president’s trade policy, which he implemented earlier last year, there were only two countries that retaliated against the United States: the People’s Republic of China and Canada,” said a senior administration official. Trump’s move on Monday risks re-inflaming a global trade skirmish that had eased after the US Supreme Court earlier this year knocked down the president’s global emergency tariffs. Canada is the US’s second-biggest trading partner, with trade between the two amounting to $716bn last year. Source. FT
Iraq just signed 48 DEALS with US companies, including with USA oil giants to bypass the Strait of Hormuz via a new pipeline
Total deals are worth over $60 BILLION, per Reuters. Chevron, ExxonMobil, Shell and more are also involved They also involved other industries, including healthcare, communications and infrastructure. It’s not clear when the oil deals will be able to create viable alternatives to the Strait of Hormuz, through which about a fifth of the world’s oil flows. Goldman Sachs estimates that pipelines in just one country take at least two and a half years to build, and these pipelines would travel through two or more nations. Iran has sought to close the Strait repeatedly since the U.S.-Iran war began Feb. 28, causing sharp gyrations in oil and gas prices. Alternatives routes for oil will weaken Iran's main bargaining power. Will China be the big loser here? Source: AP, Al Jazeera
BRENT CRUDE OIL JUST JUMPED BACK OVER $90 PER BARREL
Source: Evan @StockMKTNewz Bloomberg
The U.S. will impose 25% tariffs on imports from Brazil, the world's 10th-largest economy.
The U.S. cited Brazil's unfair trade practices, including weak anti-corruption enforcement and trade barriers, despite running a goods trade surplus with the country for years. Some products include Beef, chicken meat and coffee will be exempt from the new tariffs. The tariffs will take effect on July 22. Source: Bull Theory
Her's why crack spreads are surging everywhere... Russia's refining system is showing real signs of strain.
Russian refinery throughput fell to just 3.8 million barrels per day in June, down 1.5 million bpd from the start of 2026. For comparison, refinery runs during 2023–2025 were consistently around 5.0–5.7 million bpd at this point in the year. Then came April 2026. Throughput collapsed—and has yet to recover. The key driver? Ukrainian drone strikes appear to have inflicted more immediate damage on Russia's refining capacity than years of Western sanctions. The impact extends far beyond Russia. With fewer Russian refined products reaching global markets, diesel and other fuel supplies have tightened, helping drive crack spreads sharply higher. Sometimes the clearest signal isn't the price of crude—it's what refiners can no longer produce. Source: Jack Prandelli on X
Update (7/12 PM): The tape keeps thinning
7 commercial crossings in the last 24h (5 E→W / 2 W→E), down from 11 yesterday and barely ~6% of the Jan–Feb run-rate. Brent's grinding higher, ~$78.79 and climbing as the closure prices in. Flow down, crude up Source: @TheTerminal Michael McDonough
