Recurring Deal-Making Pattern: Markets, Denials, and Strategic Timing
A familiar strategy emerges: in April 2025, yields rose and Donald Trump signaled a China deal, denied by China before confirmation weeks later. Now, similar dynamics appear with Iran—denials, market pressure, and rising yields suggest ongoing hidden negotiations. This “denial phase” implies continued volatility, conflicting headlines, and delayed market stabilization as leverage is maintained until agreements finalize. Source: The Kobeissi Letter, CNBC, WSJ
Will the equity market follow the historical script around geopolitical shocks
"The historical playbook is for a sharp selloff of about -6% to -8% but a bottom on average in 3 weeks, and a full recovery in another 3, usually long before the underlying escalation is resolved. The current selloff is in the vicinity of a typical bottom in size and timing." - Deutsche Bank Source: Sam Ro @SamRo DB
U.S. Energy Ultimatum to Europe: Strategic Pressure for Long-Term Dependence
President Donald Trump demands Europe sign a $750B energy deal or lose U.S. LNG access. With supply constrained (Qatar offline, Russia absent, Norway maxed, prices up 35–50%), the U.S. dominates EU LNG (57%). Tensions with Iran spike oil, then ease to influence markets. The deal locks Europe into LNG, oil, and nuclear dependence by 2028, mirroring Russia’s parallel strategy in Asia.
Trump’s “ceasefire” is only a partial pause
Trump announced a five-day pause on strikes against Iranian energy infrastructure, following a 48-hour threat that Iran ignored. Meanwhile, missile attacks continue, Hormuz remains closed, and 4,500 Marines are still deploying. The pause applies only to energy strikes; all other military actions continue. Media frames it as diplomacy, Iran sees a win, and the bond market reacts with volatile yields. The real indicator of impact will be market behavior, not political statements. Source: The Kobeissi Letter, Whale Guru on X
Iran is RAMPING UP oil shipments:
Iran's oil exports spiked to ~4.5 million barrels on March 17, more than DOUBLE the 2025 average of ~2.2 million barrels per day. The surge came after exports nearly collapsed to zero on March 14 and 16, following US and Israeli military strikes near the Kharg Island export terminal. Iran is reportedly rushing to load as many tankers as possible when conditions allow, funnelling the revenue to fund military operations and keep the economy running. Iranian tankers continue to pass through the Strait of Hormuz, unlike many other vessels that remain blocked, particularly those from US-allied nations. Iran is exporting oil in bursts whenever it can. Source: Global Markets, Goldman Sachs
Will this time be different?
Yet despite the growing tension, the price action is still closely following the typical historical pattern seen in US equities during geopolitical shocks. So far, this looks like a standard shock, not a regime break, and we may now be nearing the point where markets tend to bottom. To hold or not to hold... Source: DB
Finally some TACO ?
Source: Bloomberg
Trump’s Truth Social Post Shifts Gulf Energy Dynamics
Without press conferences, Trump’s Truth Social post redrew Gulf security: blamed Israel, cleared Qatar, condemned Iran, warned Israel, and threatened Iran’s South Pars gas field. The world’s largest shared gas field vital for Qatar (~80% revenue) and Iran faces risk. The post acts as a tripwire: any Iranian strike on Qatar triggers immediate escalation, signaling deterrence, power, and energy warfare amid global market and supply chain tensions. Source: Shanaka Anslem Perera, Truth Social
