Finally some TACO ?
Source: Bloomberg
Trump’s Truth Social Post Shifts Gulf Energy Dynamics
Without press conferences, Trump’s Truth Social post redrew Gulf security: blamed Israel, cleared Qatar, condemned Iran, warned Israel, and threatened Iran’s South Pars gas field. The world’s largest shared gas field vital for Qatar (~80% revenue) and Iran faces risk. The post acts as a tripwire: any Iranian strike on Qatar triggers immediate escalation, signaling deterrence, power, and energy warfare amid global market and supply chain tensions. Source: Shanaka Anslem Perera, Truth Social
Geopolitics is now the biggest tail risk according to the latest BofA Fund Manager Survey
Source: BofA, TME
US President Donald Trump on Wednesday said countries that rely on the Strait of Hormuz should take responsibility for securing the waterway, in a post on Truth Social.
“What if we actually FINISHED OFF what’s left of the Iranian Terror State… and let the countries that USE the Strait of Hormuz (while we don’t) be responsible for keeping it open?”
An interesting development in the Iran war.
As Trump asks for international assistance in reopening the Strait of Hormuz, some countries are electing to negotiate with Iran directly (India, Italy, and Spain). Part of this decision may stem from the change in political preferences among allies with key relationships seeing China as a more dependable partner, per Politico. Source: zerohedge
Latest OPEC+ production data heading into the Iran War, as well as estimates of how much production has already been shut in across the Gulf
Source: Rory Johnston
Oil is at $104
Bloomberg estimates ➡️ the Iran war accounts for about a third of the price
Donald Trump has asked Beijing to postpone his upcoming meeting with Xi Jinping in China, casting doubt on the long-awaited summit between the US president and his Chinese counterpart.
Trump told reporters in the Oval Office on Monday afternoon that he wanted to delay the summit by a month as he grapples with the war in Iran. He had been scheduled to leave for Beijing in just over two weeks. “I’d love to but because of the war, I want to be here,” Trump said, adding the White House had requested Beijing “delay” the visit by “a month or so”. “It’s very simple. I have got a war going on,” he added. Trump’s push to delay the summit comes as the White House deals with the dramatic fallout from the ongoing conflict in the Gulf, including the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. The closure of the strait, through which 20 per cent of the world’s oil passes, has had a major impact on the price of crude, sending the cost of petrol soaring in the US just months before critical midterm elections. Source: FT
