Syz the moment

The U.S. is currently allowing Iranian oil tankers to pass through the Strait of Hormuz to keep global markets supplied. Iran is still exporting around 1.5 million barrels per day, though tanker traffic in the region has dropped sharply due to attacks. Some ships supplying India and China are still moving through. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent says the priority is preventing a global supply shock while tensions remain high. The Strait of Hormuz normally carries about 20% of the world’s oil, and oil prices have jumped roughly 40% since the conflict began, with Brent crude hovering around $102 per barrel. The expectation is that once the conflict stabilizes and shipping protection increases, oil prices could fall well below $80. The U.S. denies intervening in oil futures markets. For now, the strategy is simple: keep the oil flowing, stabilize global supply, and avoid a bigger crisis. Source: U.S. Treasury, market reports

The KOSPI “VIX” currently trades more like an oil volatility proxy than a traditional equity vol index. Latest note on Korea here. Source: LSEG Workspace, TME

The IEA proposes releasing 400 million barrels—the largest ever—to ease crude prices amid the U.S.-Israel–Iran conflict. Yet with 18–20 mb/d of disrupted supply through the Strait of Hormuz, even coordinated G7 releases (~2.2 mb/d over six months) can only partially offset the shock, cooling but not stopping the oil rally. Source: WSJ, Bloomberg, Joumanna Bercetche

Only a few dozen mines are confirmed so far… but that’s the appetizer. Analysts say Iran has thousands more ready to go, enough to turn the strait into a long-term maritime death maze. Clearing it could take months, and that’s if no one’s shooting during the process. Source: Map Narratives, Mario Nawfal on X

Kharg Island handles about 90% of Iran’s oil exports, making it a critical but vulnerable target. Striking it could quickly cripple Iran’s oil economy. However, it has not been attacked because doing so could trigger retaliation against Gulf energy infrastructure and cause a surge in global oil prices. Some analysts suggest the strategy is to preserve Iran’s oil assets rather than destroy them. Source: FT, Mario Nawfal

Source: Nick Sortor @nicksortor

Despite promises of escalation “20× harder,” the military campaign against Iran has already been intense, with 3,000 targets struck, most air defenses degraded, and dozens of warships sunk. Further escalation would likely target civilian infrastructure. However, this would not reopen the Strait of Hormuz, whose closure stems from insurance withdrawals under Solvency II. Shipping remains constrained until insurers’ risk models normalize, regardless of military outcomes. Source: Shanaka Anslem Perera on X

The Strait of Hormuz is the world’s most critical energy passage. Daily, about 100 cargo vessels transit the strait, carrying around 20% of global oil consumption, 27% of seaborne oil trade, and 20% of global LNG. Asia is the most exposed, receiving 89% of crude and 83% of LNG shipments, while the U.S. imports only about 7% via the strait. Any closure could trigger a major global energy disruption. Source: Visual Capitalist, Global Markets Investor