Syz the moment

Donald Trump has announced the US will levy 25 per cent tariffs on imports from India and also impose an unspecified penalty. In a post on his Truth Social platform on Wednesday, the US president said Indian tariffs were “among the highest in the World”, adding that New Delhi had “the most strenuous and obnoxious non-monetary Trade Barriers of any Country”. India had “always bought a vast majority of their military equipment from Russia” and was Moscow’s biggest purchaser of energy at a time when the Ukraine war was still raging, Trump said. “ALL THINGS NOT GOOD!” he wrote. “INDIA WILL THEREFORE BE PAYING A TARIFF OF 25%, PLUS A PENALTY FOR THE ABOVE, STARTING ON AUGUST FIRST.” The US president had said on Tuesday he would be imposing sanctions on Russia, including “secondary tariffs” on its energy customers, if Moscow did not halt the war in Ukraine within 10 days. Trump has also been pushing countries to boost purchases of US energy and military equipment. The EU said it would buy more American weapons as part of a trade deal with the US struck over the weekend. In a separate post on Wednesday, Trump added: “WE HAVE A MASSIVE TRADE DEFICIT WITH INDIA!!!” The US had a $45.7bn goods trade deficit with India in 2024.

That’s because the cash would come entirely from private sector investment over which Brussels has no authority, two EU officials said The deal included a pledge to invest an extra $600 billion of EU money into the U.S. over the coming years. “It is not something that the EU as a public authority can guarantee. It is something which is based on the intentions of the private companies,” said one of the senior Commission officials. The Commission has not said it will introduce any incentives to ensure the private sector meets that $600 billion target, nor given a precise timeframe for the investment. However, the first official said that the $600 billion figure was "based on detailed discussions with different business associations and companies in order to see what their investment intentions are." Source: Politico

German Chancellor Friedrich Merz said, "I'm not satisfied with this result in the sense of calling it 'good.' But considering where negotiations started with the US, achieving more just wasn't realistic." French Prime Minister François Bayrou went further, calling the EU’s acceptance of the deal a “dark day” and a sign of submission. The EU is the US’s largest trading partner, with a trade surplus of ~$250bn. Critics argue the asymmetrical deal reflects the true balance of power – and that a region which lags economically and relies on US security shouldn't be surprised when it's forced to make concessions. Source: Yahoo Finance, HolgerZ

The world has "chickened out" against Trump, per FT. "America’s trading partners have largely failed to retaliate against Donald Trump’s sweeping tariffs, allowing a president taunted for “always chickening out” to raise nearly $50bn in extra customs revenues at little cost. Four months since Trump fired the opening salvo of his trade war, only China and Canada have dared to hit back at Washington imposing a minimum 10 per cent global tariff, 50 per cent levies on steel and aluminium, and 25 per cent on autos. At the same time US revenues from customs duties hit a record high of $64bn in the second quarter — $47bn more than over the same period last year, according to data published by the US Treasury on Friday".

➡️ The “visa integrity fee,” included in the sweeping policy legislation that President Donald Trump signed into law this month, will require visitors traveling on a non-immigrant visa to pay an additional $250. ➡️ This group includes leisure and business travelers as well as international students from a wide range of countries such as India, China, Mexico, Brazil, South Africa and the Philippines. ➡️ Applicants must pay this amount on top of other visa fees that often total nearly $200. The Department of Homeland Security can adjust the fee based on inflation, starting in October. The bill does not specify when the fee will go into effect. In a statement, DHS said the new law “provides the necessary policies and resources to restore integrity in our nation’s immigration system. The visa integrity fee requires cross-agency coordination before implementation.” Source: The Washington Post

During the expected 90-day extension, the U.S. and China will agree not to introduce new tariffs or take other actions that could further escalate the trade war, the report said. Source: Reuters

➡️ The trade deal will include 0% tariffs, the EU buying $750B of US energy, and reduced automotive tariffs to 15% with an understanding that the EU will purchase more US vehicles. ➡️ The US and EU have struck a tariff deal that will avert a transatlantic trade war between the two sides but still impose American tariffs of 15 per cent on most imports from the bloc. ➡️ As part of the deal the EU has also agreed to spend hundreds of billions of dollars on additional US energy products and weapons, in exchange for the broad 15 per cent levy that covers many European exports including cars. ➡️ The agreement was struck following a meeting on Sunday between US President Donald Trump and European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen at his Turnberry golf resort in Scotland. 🎯 The deal marks a victory for Trump, who has spent months forcing America’s trading partners into bruising negotiations by threatening steep tariffs, although the terms are in line with what Brussels had told EU member states to prepare for. “This is probably the biggest deal ever reached in any capacity, trade or beyond trade,” Trump said as he announced the agreement. “Today’s deal creates certainty in uncertain times . . . for citizens and businesses on both sides of the Atlantic,” von der Leyen said, adding that the 15 per cent US tariff would apply to European cars, pharmaceuticals and semiconductors — important products for Brussels. 👍 Japan done, EU done, China closer to getting done with another 90 day tariff pause… If we can get Canada, Mexico, Australia & South Korea soon… 🚀 bullish Source: FT

With a trade surplus of €69bn, Germany is even willing to accept an asymmetrical deal — one where European exports face a 15% US tariff, while American goods enter Europe duty-free. Source: HolgerZ, Bloomberg