Syz the moment

Apart from higher oil prices 🇺🇸 now eases up on sanctions and lets India and probably others buy more of oil. Source: Carl Bildt

Iran finds itself in a dramatically weakened state following the opening days of the conflict. The country's leadership structure was effectively dismantled almost immediately, with Supreme Leader Khamenei killed within the first 30 minutes of fighting — a catastrophic blow to a regime that had spent decades positioning itself as a regional power bent on confronting Israel and the United States. Without coherent leadership, Iran's military response has been visibly deteriorating. On the first day of fighting (February 28), Iran launched its largest barrage — an estimated 150–200 ballistic missiles targeting Israel and other regional positions. By the following day, launch volumes had already fallen sharply to single or low double digits per barrage. By day four, only around 40 missiles were fired, with a near-total interception and miss rate of 99.9%. That represents a decline of roughly 80% in missile launch capacity in under a week — a strong indicator that Iran has rapidly exhausted a significant portion of its arsenal. Compounding the military setbacks is Iran's growing diplomatic isolation. Rather than rallying regional support, the conflict has seen Arab nations turn against Tehran, further limiting Iran's options. While fears of escalation into a broader or nuclear conflict have circulated, the data on the ground suggests the opposite trajectory: Iran's strike capability has already peaked and collapsed, and the conflict may wind down sooner than many analysts expected. Source: Jacob King on X

Source: Open Square Capital, Goldman Sachs

Effective IMMEDIATELY, I have ordered the United States Development Finance Corporation (DFC) to provide, at a very reasonable price, political risk insurance and guarantees for the Financial Security of ALL Maritime Trade, especially Energy, traveling through the Gulf. This will be available to all Shipping Lines. If necessary, the United States Navy will begin escorting tankers through the Strait of Hormuz, as soon as possible. Markets bounced and oil retreated on the news Source: zerohedge

(Note: likely understates flow because this will not capture tankers who are making the run with their transponders turned off) Source: Rory Johnston, FT

Source. Bloomberg

As expected, there is some escalation as the war between the U.S. + Israel and Iran is intensifying. Here’s what changed in the last 24 hours: ✈️ Air Superiority Established US and Israeli air forces now hold near-total air control over Iran. Dozens of missile launchers, rear bases, and command centers were hit — especially in Tehran. 🎯 But Iran is far from neutralized Iran continues launching drones and missiles across the region. Some reached critical U.S. bases. Now the conflict has expanded geographically: • Hezbollah joined the fight from Lebanon • Israeli airstrikes followed inside Lebanon • Iranian strikes hit Saudi Arabia (including Ras Tanura / ARAMCO refinery) • US Embassy in Riyadh targeted • Ongoing strikes across Iraq, Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, UAE, Jordan, Cyprus, and Israel ⚠️ Notably: 3 American F-16s were reportedly shot down in Kuwait — by error. The Regional Fallout • Protests erupted around U.S. embassies in Iraq and Bahrain • The U.S. has called on all American citizens to leave the region • 20 U.S. cargo aircraft are en route to reinforce logistics and defense systems Strategic Questions Now Emerging ▫️ Despite 4 days of heavy bombardment, the Iranian regime remains intact ▫️ Iranian counter-strikes continue — but how deep are their missile stocks? ▫️ Gulf countries and Israel may soon face air-defense missile shortages This is no longer a contained confrontation. It’s a multi-front regional escalation with air dominance on one side and missile saturation strategy on the other. The coming days will likely determine whether this stabilizes… or spreads further. Source: @Clément Molin on X

Most were drones. These saturation attacks aim to overwhelm air defenses and drain interceptors. $20-50k Shahed drones vs. $4.19M PAC-3 interceptors put US and its partners on the wrong side of the cost curve. Source: Bloomberg, Becca Wasser