Trump said China had allegedly agreed not to supply weapons to Iran as part of deal tied to keeping the Strait of Hormuz open.
- Says he is opening the strait "for China too, and the World" - He expects to meet Xi soon. Claims Xi Jinping will give him "a big, fat, hug" when he visits in a few weeks - Says both countries are "working together smartly and very well" - Adds the U.S. remains "far better than anyone else" at fighting if needed - "This situation will never happen again"
Trump's 7 steps maximum pressure
Source: Marko Papic
The US naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz is now in effect:
The US military began enforcing a blockade of all vessels entering or departing Iranian ports and coastal areas at 10 a.m. Eastern on Monday, while allowing non-Iran-bound traffic to transit the strait freely. Strait transits have collapsed to single digits per day, from ~135 in peacetime, and a full blockade could reduce that further. Asian nations, which rely on more than 80% of the energy that usually transits the strait, are bearing the brunt of the disruption, with downstream industries from fertilizers to packaging also taking a hit. The ceasefire expires on April 22, and the window for diplomacy is shrinking fast. Source: Global Markets Investor, Bloomberg
This could be among the reasons the market rallied yesterday
NEW YORK TIMES: Iran offered to suspend their nuclear enrichment program for 5 years. JD Vance asked for 20. While Trump rejected the 5 year offer, a second round of talks are likely, potentially in Pakistan again, by the end of this week. ⚠️ Why is this BULLISH? The fact that Iran even offered a 5-year suspension means they are WILLING to talk. The US obviously wants more years, but all the market cares about is that a deal is reached. Maybe we settle at 10 years, maybe 20. The point is…this might now become a question of WHEN a deal is reached vs. IF it is reached. Seems like that’s what the market priced in yesterday as well as we went up 1% and continued the best stretch of momentum since October 2025. Source: amitisinvesting
US Warships that are actively in the Middle East or in transit - 23 ships.
Source: Negligible Capital
Weekend negotiations in one cartoon
Source: Guy Venables
Trump accuses Iran of violating the ceasefire agreement over the Strait of Hormuz.
Six hours ago Trump warned Iran to stop charging fees to tankers or face consequences. 1 hour later he escalated, saying "that is not the agreement we have." Source: TS
Headline relief is not the same as physical normalization.
2-week ceasefire announced. Brent dropped $13 instantly. But the market is missing the real bottleneck: 172M barrels still sitting on 187 tankers in the Gulf Those cargoes must unload first — that alone could take 14+ days Qatar LNG may not restart for 2+ weeks And even then, will tankers actually enter? Iran still controls the process Saudi + UAE still have ~4M b/d shut in UBS expects only a gradual resumption through Q2 2026. A ceasefire does not equal an open Hormuz. A ceasefire does not equal restored supply. The physical dislocation is still there. Source: UBS, Qasem Al-Ali
