Syz the moment

Source: Open Square Capital, Goldman Sachs

Effective IMMEDIATELY, I have ordered the United States Development Finance Corporation (DFC) to provide, at a very reasonable price, political risk insurance and guarantees for the Financial Security of ALL Maritime Trade, especially Energy, traveling through the Gulf. This will be available to all Shipping Lines. If necessary, the United States Navy will begin escorting tankers through the Strait of Hormuz, as soon as possible. Markets bounced and oil retreated on the news Source: zerohedge

(Note: likely understates flow because this will not capture tankers who are making the run with their transponders turned off) Source: Rory Johnston, FT

Source. Bloomberg

As expected, there is some escalation as the war between the U.S. + Israel and Iran is intensifying. Here’s what changed in the last 24 hours: ✈️ Air Superiority Established US and Israeli air forces now hold near-total air control over Iran. Dozens of missile launchers, rear bases, and command centers were hit — especially in Tehran. 🎯 But Iran is far from neutralized Iran continues launching drones and missiles across the region. Some reached critical U.S. bases. Now the conflict has expanded geographically: • Hezbollah joined the fight from Lebanon • Israeli airstrikes followed inside Lebanon • Iranian strikes hit Saudi Arabia (including Ras Tanura / ARAMCO refinery) • US Embassy in Riyadh targeted • Ongoing strikes across Iraq, Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, UAE, Jordan, Cyprus, and Israel ⚠️ Notably: 3 American F-16s were reportedly shot down in Kuwait — by error. The Regional Fallout • Protests erupted around U.S. embassies in Iraq and Bahrain • The U.S. has called on all American citizens to leave the region • 20 U.S. cargo aircraft are en route to reinforce logistics and defense systems Strategic Questions Now Emerging ▫️ Despite 4 days of heavy bombardment, the Iranian regime remains intact ▫️ Iranian counter-strikes continue — but how deep are their missile stocks? ▫️ Gulf countries and Israel may soon face air-defense missile shortages This is no longer a contained confrontation. It’s a multi-front regional escalation with air dominance on one side and missile saturation strategy on the other. The coming days will likely determine whether this stabilizes… or spreads further. Source: @Clément Molin on X

Most were drones. These saturation attacks aim to overwhelm air defenses and drain interceptors. $20-50k Shahed drones vs. $4.19M PAC-3 interceptors put US and its partners on the wrong side of the cost curve. Source: Bloomberg, Becca Wasser

For the first time in history, a hyperscaler data center was physically struck during a war. An Amazon Web Services facility in the hashtag#UAE went offline after “objects struck” it—AWS’s carefully chosen words for what appears to be missile or drone debris. Power was cut. One availability zone went dark. Others stayed up. If reports from The Jerusalem Post are accurate that the facility supported Israeli military workloads, the implications are massive: dual-use cloud infrastructure just became a legitimate military target. That collapses a long-standing assumption: Data centers are civilian assets protected by fences and biometrics—not by missile defense systems. AWS, Azure, and Google Cloud all cluster regions in the same conflict-adjacent corridor. Oracle operates infrastructure in Dubai Will Wall Street price in this new risk for the hyper-scalers? Source: Shanaka Anslem Perera

China is the main destination of the 13.1mm barrels of oil that passes through the Strait every day. Source: zerohedge, Goldman Sachs