Syz the moment

-> Many in the startup world rejoiced at Trump’s VP pick -> Vance has criticized big tech and has backed small players Major Silicon Valley investors hailed Donald Trump’s choice of Ohio senator and former venture capitalist JD Vance as his running mate, a move that puts the technology industry closer to center stage in Washington if the former president takes the White House in November. Elon Musk called the decision a “great choice” and said the lineup “resounds with victory” on X, the social platform he owns. David Sacks, an investor and Trump supporter scheduled to speak at the GOP convention on Monday night, called Vance an “American patriot” in a post. According to Tech Crunch >>> "Vance spent years as a venture capitalist before leaving the industry when elected to the U.S. Senate in 2022. After graduating from Yale Law School in 2013, Vance moved to San Francisco, where he was a principal at Mithril Capital, a fund co-founded by Peter Thiel and Ajay Royan. Mithril raised two funds, a $540 million and an $850 million vehicle in 2013 and 2017, respectively. Thiel was publicly active in politics in 2016, backing Trump’s first presidential campaign, and helped fund Vance’s Senate race, but has said he’s not planning to donate to any Republicans in the 2024 election. In 2017, Vance left Mithril and joined Steve Case’s Washington, D.C.-based Revolution as a managing director. His move came when his wife, Usha Chilukuri Vance, landed a role as a Supreme Court clerk. While at Revolution, Vance helped Case launch Rise of the Rest, a strategy focused on investing in startups outside the main U.S. tech hubs. At Revolution, the Republican VP nominee led deals into Michigan-based Aatmunn, a startup that develops software and wearable devices for on-the-job safety for construction workers. He also backed and served on the board of Kentucky-based AppHarvest, an indoor farming startup, that went public via a SPAC in 2021 but filed for bankruptcy protection in 2023". Source: Bloomberg, Tech Crunch

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Source: Bloomberg, RBC

Ohio Sen. J.D. Vance, less than a decade ago, rose to prominence as a Trump critic. But over the last few years, Vance, 39, has emerged as a Trump loyalist, becoming one of his most vocal defenders in the Senate and a frequent surrogate on television as he called for the party to embrace Trump’s populist agenda. Vance could expand Trump’s appeal in the swing states. Indeed, he hails from the Rust Belt, which includes portions of the critical swing states of Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin. He’s also a Marine veteran, and would be the second youngest vice president — tied with Richard Nixon — if Trump wins in November. Source: FT

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Source: Google Trends

Source: Interactive Polls

Meanwhile, this could lead to more upward pressure on bond yields and a steepening of the yield curve. We also expect the "pro-republican" type of stocks to move higher. Pro-trump / republican seep victory sectors include Energy, Defense, Immigration-enforcement, For-profit education, Financials, some healthcare stocks, etc. Among the losers: Tech, Renewables, etc. From a geographical point of view, some US-friendly countries (India, Vietnam, etc.) might benefit from a Trump re-election. China and Mexico (and US stocks related to them) might suffer. Same for European autos exporters for instance. Source table: Bob Elliott