Syz the moment

Source: Goldman, Mike Zaccardi, CFA, CMT, MBA

Calling the trial of former Brazilian president Jair Bolsonaro a “witch hunt.” Responding to criticism from President Trump, Brazil’s president said: “We don’t want an emperor.” Donald Trump said Brazil would be subject to US tariffs of 50 per cent on its goods, accusing the country of treating former president Jair Bolsonaro unfairly. In the eighth letter published to social media on Wednesday, Trump said Bolsonaro was a “Highly Respected Leader throughout the world during his Term.” “This Trial should not be taking place. It is a Witch Hunt that should end IMMEDIATELY!” Trump wrote. He added that the tariff would be applied “in part” because of Brazil’s “insidious attacks on Free Elections, and the fundamental Free Speech Rights of Americans.” Bolsonaro is on trial over an alleged coup plot, which prosecutors say aimed to keep him in power after losing an election in 2022. Brazil was previously facing a tariff of 10 per cent. Source: FT

Bilateral Leverage and Trade Balance: The UK, as a single nation, has less negotiating power than the EU, a bloc of 27 countries with a larger collective market. The US can secure concessions more easily from the UK. Additionally, the US runs a trade surplus with the UK (e.g., $25.9 billion in goods in 2024), while it has a significant trade deficit with the EU (e.g., $209 billion in 2024). Lower UK tariffs align with maintaining favorable trade dynamics, while higher EU tariffs aim to address the deficit. Post-Brexit Alignment: Since Brexit, the UK has sought closer ties with the US to offset its reduced EU market access. The US leverages this to secure a favorable deal, offering exemptions (e.g., auto, aerospace) and lower tariffs (e.g., 10% baseline vs. EU’s potential 20-50%). The UK’s flexibility, unbound by EU regulations, allows quicker agreement on US priorities like digital trade and agriculture. Geopolitical Strategy: The US views the UK as a key ally in countering EU influence and promoting a US-led trade framework. Lower tariffs strengthen the US-UK “special relationship,” especially in defense and intelligence (e.g., AUKUS), while higher EU tariffs pressure the EU to concede on issues like steel and digital services taxes. Source: SuperGrok

Source: RBC, Oxford Economics

Source: Neil Sethi @neilksethi

Source: Mario Nawfal on X

"Now that the budget bill has passed Congress, we can see what the projections look like for deficits, government debt, and debt service expenses. In brief, the bill is expected to lead to spending of about $7 trillion a year with inflows of about $5 trillion a year, so the debt, which is now about 6x of the money taken in, 100 percent of GDP, and about $230,000 per American family, will rise over ten years to about 7.5x the money taken in, 130 percent of GDP, and $425,000 per family. That will increase interest and principal payments on the debt from about $10 trillion ($1 trillion in interest, $9 trillion in principal) to about $18 trillion (of which $2 trillion is interest payments), which will lead to either a big squeezing out (and cutting off) of spending and/or unimaginable tax increases, or a lot of printing and devaluing of money and pushing interest rates to unattractively low levels. This printing and devaluing is not good for those holding bonds as a storehold of wealth, and what’s bad for bonds and US credit markets is bad for everyone because the US Treasury market is the backbone of all capital markets, which are the backbones of our economic and social conditions. Unless this path is soon rectified to bring the budget deficit from roughly 7% of GDP to about 3% by making adjustments to spending, taxes, and interest rates, big, painful disruptions will likely occur".

🔴 Donald Trump has secured passage of his flagship tax and spending legislation after the House of Representatives approved the bill, handing the US president a political triumph six months into his second term ✅ ▶️ The 218 to 214 vote by the House on Thursday came after Democratic minority leader Hakeem Jeffries spoke against what he called the “ugly” legislation for a record eight hours and 44 minutes, in a symbolic act of defiance. ▶️The House’s approval came hours after the president quashed a rebellion among House Republicans who threatened to hold up what Trump calls his “big, beautiful bill”. ▶️ The president would sign the bill into law at 5pm on Friday in Washington, according to White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt, meeting his self-imposed deadline of July 4. ▶️ The legislation extends vast tax cuts from Trump’s first administration, paid for in part by steep cuts to Medicaid, the public health insurance scheme for low-income and disabled Americans, and other social welfare programmes. ▶️ The bill will also roll back Biden-era tax credits for clean energy, while scaling up investment in the military and funds for Trump’s crackdown on immigration. Source: FT (link to the article ▶️ https://lnkd.in/errs6gtu)