Syz the moment

President Donald Trump demands Europe sign a $750B energy deal or lose U.S. LNG access. With supply constrained (Qatar offline, Russia absent, Norway maxed, prices up 35–50%), the U.S. dominates EU LNG (57%). Tensions with Iran spike oil, then ease to influence markets. The deal locks Europe into LNG, oil, and nuclear dependence by 2028, mirroring Russia’s parallel strategy in Asia.

Trump announced a five-day pause on strikes against Iranian energy infrastructure, following a 48-hour threat that Iran ignored. Meanwhile, missile attacks continue, Hormuz remains closed, and 4,500 Marines are still deploying. The pause applies only to energy strikes; all other military actions continue. Media frames it as diplomacy, Iran sees a win, and the bond market reacts with volatile yields. The real indicator of impact will be market behavior, not political statements. Source: The Kobeissi Letter, Whale Guru on X

Iran's oil exports spiked to ~4.5 million barrels on March 17, more than DOUBLE the 2025 average of ~2.2 million barrels per day. The surge came after exports nearly collapsed to zero on March 14 and 16, following US and Israeli military strikes near the Kharg Island export terminal. Iran is reportedly rushing to load as many tankers as possible when conditions allow, funnelling the revenue to fund military operations and keep the economy running. Iranian tankers continue to pass through the Strait of Hormuz, unlike many other vessels that remain blocked, particularly those from US-allied nations. Iran is exporting oil in bursts whenever it can. Source: Global Markets, Goldman Sachs

Yet despite the growing tension, the price action is still closely following the typical historical pattern seen in US equities during geopolitical shocks. So far, this looks like a standard shock, not a regime break, and we may now be nearing the point where markets tend to bottom. To hold or not to hold... Source: DB

Source: Bloomberg

Without press conferences, Trump’s Truth Social post redrew Gulf security: blamed Israel, cleared Qatar, condemned Iran, warned Israel, and threatened Iran’s South Pars gas field. The world’s largest shared gas field vital for Qatar (~80% revenue) and Iran faces risk. The post acts as a tripwire: any Iranian strike on Qatar triggers immediate escalation, signaling deterrence, power, and energy warfare amid global market and supply chain tensions. Source: Shanaka Anslem Perera, Truth Social

Source: BofA, TME

“What if we actually FINISHED OFF what’s left of the Iranian Terror State… and let the countries that USE the Strait of Hormuz (while we don’t) be responsible for keeping it open?”