After a landmark Supreme Court ruling struck down previous trade policies, the new 15% global blanket tariff is officially set to go live this Tuesday.
But the data reveals a massive irony that most people are missing. According to new analysis from Global Trade Alert, the very countries frequently singled out for criticism are set to see their average tariff rates drop the most. The Winners (The Surprise): Brazil: Enjoying a massive 13.6% reduction in average tariff rates. China: Seeing a 7.1% reduction. Vietnam, Thailand, & Malaysia: Set to benefit significantly as previous specific levies are replaced by the blanket rate. The Losers (The Allies): Traditional US allies—including the UK, EU, and Japan—are bracing for the biggest hit. They are moving from lower historical rates straight into the 15% line of fire. The Bottom Line: US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer is holding firm, stating the "urgency of the situation" demanded the jump from 10% to 15%. While this new regime is only valid for 150 days without Congressional approval, the message to global markets is clear: Volatility is the new constant. Source: FT
A trade-off between more uncertainty in the near term and a lighter tariff regime in the medium to long term
LONG-TERM: Morgan Stanley sees an opportunity for the President to alleviate some components of the existing tariff regime over time IN THE NEARER TERM: uncertainty will likely prevail in terms of which authorities will replace the existing tariffs, which sectors/countries will face more legally durable tariffs (Sec. 232/301 after months of investigation), and most importantly, what happens to the bilateral framework deals that are currently in place. That means the broader macro impact could be modest in the context of these two competing factors. Source: zerohedge
Replacing the IEEPA Tariffs With a 15% Tariff Under Section 122 for Now Would Reduce the Increase in the Effective Tariff Rate Since the Start of 2025 from Just Over 10pp to 9pp
Goldman Sachs estimates that the changes will reduce the increase in the effective tariff rate since the start of 2025 from just over 10% to about 9% once the Sec. 122 tariffs are implemented. Source: Zerohedge
tariffs collected by Trump so far
Source: Bloomberg
Us Tariffs range from 8.3% to 15.3%
The headline: The trade-weighted average US tariff rate is now 13.2% under Section 122 at 15%. That's down from 15.3% before the ruling, but well above the 8.3% that would have applied with no replacement. Source: Global Trade Alert
What’s worrying billionaires?
• Trade tensions, geopolitics, and policy uncertainty top the list • Tariffs dominate in Asia-Pacific and inflation and conflict lead fears in the Americas Source: Visual Capitalist
The Trump Administration secretly smuggled 6,000 Starlink satellite terminals into Iran in January after the Iranian government cut off internet in the country, per WSJ.
Source: The Kobeissi Letter
Japan’s prime minister Sanae Takaichi has led her party to a crushing victory in Japan’s snap general election on Sunday
Japan’s Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi won a landslide election, securing a two-thirds majority that enables major reforms. Her agenda includes strong economic stimulus, tax relief on food, increased tech investment, and possible constitutional change. Markets welcomed the political stability, pushing Japanese stocks to new highs.
