Will this time be different?
Yet despite the growing tension, the price action is still closely following the typical historical pattern seen in US equities during geopolitical shocks. So far, this looks like a standard shock, not a regime break, and we may now be nearing the point where markets tend to bottom. To hold or not to hold... Source: DB
Finally some TACO ?
Source: Bloomberg
Trump’s Truth Social Post Shifts Gulf Energy Dynamics
Without press conferences, Trump’s Truth Social post redrew Gulf security: blamed Israel, cleared Qatar, condemned Iran, warned Israel, and threatened Iran’s South Pars gas field. The world’s largest shared gas field vital for Qatar (~80% revenue) and Iran faces risk. The post acts as a tripwire: any Iranian strike on Qatar triggers immediate escalation, signaling deterrence, power, and energy warfare amid global market and supply chain tensions. Source: Shanaka Anslem Perera, Truth Social
Geopolitics is now the biggest tail risk according to the latest BofA Fund Manager Survey
Source: BofA, TME
US President Donald Trump on Wednesday said countries that rely on the Strait of Hormuz should take responsibility for securing the waterway, in a post on Truth Social.
“What if we actually FINISHED OFF what’s left of the Iranian Terror State… and let the countries that USE the Strait of Hormuz (while we don’t) be responsible for keeping it open?”
An interesting development in the Iran war.
As Trump asks for international assistance in reopening the Strait of Hormuz, some countries are electing to negotiate with Iran directly (India, Italy, and Spain). Part of this decision may stem from the change in political preferences among allies with key relationships seeing China as a more dependable partner, per Politico. Source: zerohedge
Latest OPEC+ production data heading into the Iran War, as well as estimates of how much production has already been shut in across the Gulf
Source: Rory Johnston
Oil is at $104
Bloomberg estimates ➡️ the Iran war accounts for about a third of the price
