Syz the moment

Way more debt it is. Fascinating. Deficit and debt projections via Bloomberg Source: Daniel Lacalle

The left-wing New Popular Front (NFP) is set to come in FIRST, and Marine Le Pen’s far-right National Rally in THIRD in absolute shock result for the French legislative elections. Within NFP, radical left LFI leader J.L Melenchon wants the current Prime Minister to leave and rules out any coalition with the centrists (i.e he claims the Prime Minister seat for him or someone else from LFI) We note that within NFP (left-wing), the socialist party PS and the Greens have a strong score relative to radical left LFI. As such, it is unlikely that LFI will be able to claim the Prime Minister seat. Three scenarios: 1/ NFP government (with a Prime Minister coming from the less radical arm of NFP); 2/ A center-left coalition government (Macron’s Ensemble + less radical left + green).; 3/ If no political solution is found, a caretaker government could be appointed, OR instead a so-called technocratic government led by a non-political prime minister. All-in, the result is rather negative for markets (equities and bonds) as the radical left & left NFP party program is somewhat of a flash-back into the old French socialist program: - Retirement age at 60-year old - Increase of the minimum salary - Increase of taxes Such a political program would obviously be both inflationary and increase debt load and budget deficit. Still, it remains unlikely that left & radical left would be able to impose this program as their majority is a relative one. All in all, we do expect some sell-off of French equities and a rise of the OAT-Bund spread tomorrow. With regards to the new PM and the economic & social program to be applied, next few days will be critical (unless they postpone any decision after the Olympic Games...).

Sir Keir Starmer’s Labour party is headed for a huge majority in the House of Commons after Rishi Sunak conceded defeat in the UK general election. With the final results still streaming in, a national exit poll suggests Starmer will become prime minister more than 400 of 650 Commons seats, with the Tories holding most likely around 110 seats, the party’s worst result in its 190-year history. Sunak, who won his seat of Richmond and Northallerton, said he took “responsibility for the loss”. A victorious Starmer had earlier declared: “The change begins right here. It’s now time for us to deliver.” Source: FT, Bloomberg

This week in The Economist: "Why Biden must withdraw - The president and his party portray themselves as the saviours of democracy. Their actions say otherwise"

Source: No Context Brits on X

Source: Bloomberg

Source: Bloomberg, Michael McDonough

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