The Pentagon just proposed the largest defense budget in U.S. history at $1.5T or +42% in one year.
• $65.8T (warships & support ships) - Largest shipbuilding program since Kennedy. • $54.6T (autonomous warfare) • $6.1T (next-gen B-21 bomber) • 85 F-35 jets • 18 battle force ships • 16 non-battle force ships • Golden Dome missile defense • 12 critical munitions restocked • critical minerals supply chain investment Record drone investment. 44,000 new troops. The Iran war costs are not included. That’s a separate bill. America is no longer preparing for a war. It’s preparing for wars (with a "s")👁️ Source: Visual capitalist, Voronoi
The US blockade of the blockade seems to work rather well for the US.
It's substantially reduced Iran's oil exports (and inflow of hard currency), seized an Iranian ship and threatened secondary sanctions on Chinese banks that deal in Iranian oil. Meanwhile, oil prices are down from their highs. And the US is exporting record volume of il & gas. Kudos! Source: Robin Brooks
Trump said China had allegedly agreed not to supply weapons to Iran as part of deal tied to keeping the Strait of Hormuz open.
- Says he is opening the strait "for China too, and the World" - He expects to meet Xi soon. Claims Xi Jinping will give him "a big, fat, hug" when he visits in a few weeks - Says both countries are "working together smartly and very well" - Adds the U.S. remains "far better than anyone else" at fighting if needed - "This situation will never happen again"
Trump's 7 steps maximum pressure
Source: Marko Papic
The US naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz is now in effect:
The US military began enforcing a blockade of all vessels entering or departing Iranian ports and coastal areas at 10 a.m. Eastern on Monday, while allowing non-Iran-bound traffic to transit the strait freely. Strait transits have collapsed to single digits per day, from ~135 in peacetime, and a full blockade could reduce that further. Asian nations, which rely on more than 80% of the energy that usually transits the strait, are bearing the brunt of the disruption, with downstream industries from fertilizers to packaging also taking a hit. The ceasefire expires on April 22, and the window for diplomacy is shrinking fast. Source: Global Markets Investor, Bloomberg
This could be among the reasons the market rallied yesterday
NEW YORK TIMES: Iran offered to suspend their nuclear enrichment program for 5 years. JD Vance asked for 20. While Trump rejected the 5 year offer, a second round of talks are likely, potentially in Pakistan again, by the end of this week. ⚠️ Why is this BULLISH? The fact that Iran even offered a 5-year suspension means they are WILLING to talk. The US obviously wants more years, but all the market cares about is that a deal is reached. Maybe we settle at 10 years, maybe 20. The point is…this might now become a question of WHEN a deal is reached vs. IF it is reached. Seems like that’s what the market priced in yesterday as well as we went up 1% and continued the best stretch of momentum since October 2025. Source: amitisinvesting
US Warships that are actively in the Middle East or in transit - 23 ships.
Source: Negligible Capital
Weekend negotiations in one cartoon
Source: Guy Venables
