BREAKING: Prediction markets are now showing a 53% chance of Kamala Harris winning the 2024 election, according to Polymarket.
These markets are different than polls in that the probabilities are based on real money wagers. In 2016, polls put odds of Hillary Clinton beating Trump at 70%, with some as high as 98%. Trump's victory in 2016 ended up resulting in one of the largest polling and election forecaster failures in history. Will prediction markets prove to be more or less accurate? Source: The Kobeissi Letter
The European Commission has denied that its internal market commissioner had approval from Ursula von der Leyen to send the letter
one EU official saying, 'Thierry has his own mind and way of working and thinking'. Source: FT
BREAKING: For the first time ever, Kamala Harris is leading Donald Trump in Polymarket's 2024 election odds.
At one point, prediction markets saw a 10+ percentage point lead by Donald Trump. Source: The Kobeissi Letter
Donald Trump said the Fed has "gotten a lot wrong," and "US Presidents should have a say in Fed actions."
“I think I have a better instinct than, in many cases, people that would be on the Federal Reserve or the chairman" What do you think? Source: Stocktwits
JP Morgan's Jamie Dimon pushes for private-sector representation in next cabinet
Source: Bloomberg
Are markets now pricing in a Kamala victory?
Source: PredictIt
Goldman: Harris Trails by Around 3pp in the State Currently Most Likely to Decide the Election—Pennsylvania
Source: Mike Z., Goldman Sachs
US Presidential elections >>> Are we back to square one?
Source: PredictIt, Bloomberg, www.zerohedge.com
