Republicans officially retain control of the U.S. House, giving the GOP a Trifecta; Control of both chambers of Congress and the Presidency.
The Republicans have won control of the U.S. House of Representatives after the party took 218 seats in national elections, according to a Decision Desk HQ projection on NewsNation. Source: @america
The US election doesn't change geopolitical truths facing the EU:
(i) China and Russia are allies - China is Putin's biggest enabler; (ii) the EU depends on the US for military protection, the US does NOT in any way depend on the EU. Strategic autonomy is a dangerous illusion... Source: Robin Brooks
Trump win over Harris in one map
Source: Michel A.Arouet
When Previous Presidential Election Results Were Called
Source: DeItaone (@*Walter Bloomberg)
Goldman has some potential reaction functions:
* Trump w/ Republican Sweep = 25% probability; S&P +3% * Trump w/ Divided Government = 30% probability; S&P +1.5% " Harris w/ Democratic Sweep = 5% probability; S&P -3% * Harris w/ Divided Government = 40% probability; S&P -1.5% Source: Carl Quintanilla on X, Goldman Sachs
Trump's odds are back on the rise.
🟥 Trump • 57.7% chance 🟦 Harris • 42.3% chance Tomorrow is election day. Source: Polymarket
When to expect swing state results (could take days)
Source: ian bremmer @ianbremmer
Pennsylvania is the key state to watch. The winner there might takes it all.
Volatility on this state in betting websites is huge and should not be overread. A few hours ago Trump is back on top (Polymarkets). That could flip again today.
