Syz the moment

Kharg Island handles about 90% of Iran’s oil exports, making it a critical but vulnerable target. Striking it could quickly cripple Iran’s oil economy. However, it has not been attacked because doing so could trigger retaliation against Gulf energy infrastructure and cause a surge in global oil prices. Some analysts suggest the strategy is to preserve Iran’s oil assets rather than destroy them. Source: FT, Mario Nawfal

Source: Nick Sortor @nicksortor

Despite promises of escalation “20× harder,” the military campaign against Iran has already been intense, with 3,000 targets struck, most air defenses degraded, and dozens of warships sunk. Further escalation would likely target civilian infrastructure. However, this would not reopen the Strait of Hormuz, whose closure stems from insurance withdrawals under Solvency II. Shipping remains constrained until insurers’ risk models normalize, regardless of military outcomes. Source: Shanaka Anslem Perera on X

The Strait of Hormuz is the world’s most critical energy passage. Daily, about 100 cargo vessels transit the strait, carrying around 20% of global oil consumption, 27% of seaborne oil trade, and 20% of global LNG. Asia is the most exposed, receiving 89% of crude and 83% of LNG shipments, while the U.S. imports only about 7% via the strait. Any closure could trigger a major global energy disruption. Source: Visual Capitalist, Global Markets Investor

Excluding energy, Bahrain faces ~62% of its total trade disrupted. The UAE is exposed at ~58%, and Qatar at ~46%. Gulf ports have become military targets, with the Strait effectively shut, sending shipping rates soaring and halting air cargo for a week. Source: Global Markets Investor @GlobalMktObserv

G7 finance ministers held an emergency call to discuss a coordinated release of strategic petroleum reserves led by the IEA. The U.S. and two other countries support releasing 300–400 million barrels—25–30% of reserves and more than double the previous record. WTI crude briefly spiked to $120 before dropping to $102.5, while U.S. gasoline rose to $3.45 per gallon. This would be the largest emergency release in history. Source: Global Markets Investor

With the aircraft carrier strike group to the Eastern Mediterranean to defend the region against the Iranian threat It will also use Rafale jets to defend allies and counter Iranian drones amid rising Middle East tensions. Source: Saturn World News @SaturnWorldNews

Source: Zineb Riboua on X