The supply chain / 3inflation risk ahead of 2024. Red Sea is now largely closed to traffic
That's 8.8 million bpd of daily oil transit, and nearly 380 million tons of daily cargo transit. Global traffic now will be rerouted around Cape of Good Hope, adding 40% to voyage distance (and even more to cost) Source: www.zerohedge.com
Global supply chain under threat after Iran-backed Houthi militants on ships in the Red Sea
We live in a world where geopolitical risks are playing a much higher role than during last decade. Current conflict in the Middle East is threatening global trade and suppy chain. These attacks by have already rocked global trade. And there could be more disruptions and price increases to come for shipments of goods and fuel. Several major shipping lines and oil transporters have suspended their services through the Red Sea as more than a dozen vessels have come under attack since the start of the Israel-Hamas war in early October.
The Pentagon said Sunday a U.S. warship and multiple commercial vessels are under attack in the Red Sea.
‘We’re aware of reports regarding attacks on the USS Carney and commercial vessels in the Red Sea and will provide information as it becomes available,’ the Pentagon said, according to the Associated Press.” Meanwhile, "Gulf of Tonkin" is trending on X in the US. Source: Fox News, www.zerohedge.com
Fiat money debasement does have some strong polical and economical consequences
Javier Milei has just won Sunday’s presidential runoff against Economy Minister Sergio Massa. Javier Milei, a 53-year-old far-right economist and former television pundit with no governing experience, claimed nearly 56% of the vote, with more than 80% of votes tallied. Voters in this nation of 46 million demanded a drastic change from a government that has sent the peso tumbling, inflation skyrocketing and more than 40 percent of the population into poverty. With Milei, Argentina takes a leap into the unknown. He has promised to fix Argentina’s perennial economic problems by making drastic budget cuts, replacing the battered peso with the US dollar and shutting down the central bank. He will take office on December 10th.
“Millions of my people will die, but that's a sacrifice I'm willing to make" - Egypt’s Prime Minister
Source: WSJ, Wall Street Silver
Will oil prices react to the Israel-Gaza conflict?
A probability tree by Alexandre Kateb, CFA
Nobody can predict at the moment how the Middle East situation will unfold, but if history is a guide market impacts of geopolitical scares are usually short lived
Will it be different this time? Source: Michel A.Arouet
Bloomberg analysis on war potential economic and market impacts
Source: Bloomberg
