US ASKS G-7 TO CONSIDER SANCTIONS ON RUSSIAN PALLADIUM, TITANIUM
Palladium will soar if this goes through: Russia makes 40% of the world's palladium
Emancipation from the West and the quest for multipolarity is one one of the megatrend we are currently following.
The BRICS Summit in Kazan is one illustration of this trend. Narandra Modi on X: "With fellow BRICS leaders at the Summit in Kazan, Russia. This Summit is special because we welcomed the new BRICS members. This forum has immense potential to make our planet better and more sustainable". The “BRICspansion” is part of a plan to “reshape global governance into a ‘multipolar’ world order that puts voices of the Global South at the center of the world agenda. This megatrend have important consequences on the geopolitocal, macro and markets side. Among them: - De-dollarization and lower demand for US Treasuries - Reshoring, friendshoring, nearshoring - From "just-in-time" inventory to "just-in-case" inventory - Higher demand for commodities including precious metals - Structurally higher inflation
Tuesday humour
Source: Wall Street Silver
A fascinating chart by James Bianco ->
The 10-year yield (blue) and Trump's Political Betting probabilities (orange). The chart starts the day Biden dropped out. Coincidence, or are these series related? If they are related, what happens to 10-year yields if the orange line (man) goes to 100 in 14 days? Source: Bianco Research
What could be the tax effects on SP500 EPS based on a Trump or Harris win? Here's what BofA projects:
- They said a Harris administration would be a 4.7% headwind to overall S&P EPS growth and a Trump administration would be a 4% tailwind to S&P earnings. - The only caveat here is if we have a split congress. If so, Kamala may win but not be able to pass sweeping tax policies. Given current market action, it seems the market is currently pricing in those 2 scenarios: 1) Either Trump wins 2) or if Kamala does, she can’t pass her new tax policies because of a divided congress. Source: amit @amitisinvesting on X, BofA
Polymarket: Trump's odds are up 2.5% after Kamala Harris' Fox News interview.
He now has a 24% lead.
There it is: Trump now leads in every battleground state, according to Polymarket
(chart via BBG ECAN) Source: www.zerohedge.com
BREAKING: Donald Trump is now 10 percentage points ahead of Kamala Harris in the 2024 election, according to @Kalshi's prediction markets.
Since October 10th, election odds have gone from 50-50 to sharply favouring Donald Trump. Source: Kalshi
