Trump's 7 steps maximum pressure
Source: Marko Papic
The US naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz is now in effect:
The US military began enforcing a blockade of all vessels entering or departing Iranian ports and coastal areas at 10 a.m. Eastern on Monday, while allowing non-Iran-bound traffic to transit the strait freely. Strait transits have collapsed to single digits per day, from ~135 in peacetime, and a full blockade could reduce that further. Asian nations, which rely on more than 80% of the energy that usually transits the strait, are bearing the brunt of the disruption, with downstream industries from fertilizers to packaging also taking a hit. The ceasefire expires on April 22, and the window for diplomacy is shrinking fast. Source: Global Markets Investor, Bloomberg
This could be among the reasons the market rallied yesterday
NEW YORK TIMES: Iran offered to suspend their nuclear enrichment program for 5 years. JD Vance asked for 20. While Trump rejected the 5 year offer, a second round of talks are likely, potentially in Pakistan again, by the end of this week. ⚠️ Why is this BULLISH? The fact that Iran even offered a 5-year suspension means they are WILLING to talk. The US obviously wants more years, but all the market cares about is that a deal is reached. Maybe we settle at 10 years, maybe 20. The point is…this might now become a question of WHEN a deal is reached vs. IF it is reached. Seems like that’s what the market priced in yesterday as well as we went up 1% and continued the best stretch of momentum since October 2025. Source: amitisinvesting
US Warships that are actively in the Middle East or in transit - 23 ships.
Source: Negligible Capital
Weekend negotiations in one cartoon
Source: Guy Venables
Trump accuses Iran of violating the ceasefire agreement over the Strait of Hormuz.
Six hours ago Trump warned Iran to stop charging fees to tankers or face consequences. 1 hour later he escalated, saying "that is not the agreement we have." Source: TS
Headline relief is not the same as physical normalization.
2-week ceasefire announced. Brent dropped $13 instantly. But the market is missing the real bottleneck: 172M barrels still sitting on 187 tankers in the Gulf Those cargoes must unload first — that alone could take 14+ days Qatar LNG may not restart for 2+ weeks And even then, will tankers actually enter? Iran still controls the process Saudi + UAE still have ~4M b/d shut in UBS expects only a gradual resumption through Q2 2026. A ceasefire does not equal an open Hormuz. A ceasefire does not equal restored supply. The physical dislocation is still there. Source: UBS, Qasem Al-Ali
Why an Attack on Iran’s Power Grid Would Ripple Across the Region
Iran’s electricity grid is interconnected with several neighboring countries, so disruptions wouldn’t stay contained—they could spread beyond its borders. Key links include: • Iraq, Afghanistan, Pakistan — import Iranian power • Turkey — two-way grid connection • Armenia, Azerbaijan, Turkmenistan — tied through energy networks A major disruption could: Cause blackouts or shortages in connected countries Disrupt regional energy trade and markets Increase instability in states relying on Iranian electricity Power grids are interconnected systems, not isolated assets—so impacts are often regional, not just domestic. Source: Dr. Taimoor Zaman Khan, wikipedia
