The U.S. government shutdown is now in its third week after the Senate again rejected a temporary funding bill.
Polymarket odds now show a 73% chance the shutdown lasts over a month. Source: Cointelegraph, Polymarkets
Not really a signal of appeasement...
US Treasury secretary Scott Bessent has accused China of trying to hurt the world’s economy after Beijing imposed sweeping export controls on rare earths and critical minerals, hitting global supply chains. Bessent told the FT that China’s introduction of the controls, three weeks before US President Donald Trump is expected to meet his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping in South Korea, reflected problems in its own economy. “This is a sign of how weak their economy is, and they want to pull everybody else down with them,” Bessent said on Monday. https://lnkd.in/e2YHBgxP
When geopolitical & socio-economic tensions rise, both people & nations turn to hard assets.
One big buyer in particular has been Beijing. China has been swapping Treasuries for gold for years, lifting reserves to over 74m ounces. 👉 This is a reflection of both state policy and popular sentiment: hedging against dollar risk, sanctions, and China’s own shaky property and stock markets. Source: Chamath Palihapitiya @chamath, Steno Research, Bloomberg
France changes its Prime Ministers more often than some people buy new underwear...
Source: Connexion VisActu
Kalshi is currently pricing in a 57% chance that the 🇺🇸 Government shutdown will last more than 10 days
Source: Kalshi
Historically, shutdowns have not been the market killer many fear.
The last 6 shutdowns all saw the S&P 500 rise from start to finish. Even the 35-day freeze in 2018–19 saw the index surge nearly 10%. Yes, Powell’s dovish pivot helped then but the bigger takeaway is clear: markets shrugged off the shutdown and rallied. Why? Because markets hate uncertainty, but they also know every shutdown will eventually be resolved. Source: Stockmarket.news
StockMarket.news >>> Shutdowns don’t mean every federal worker goes home.
In fact, the majority keep working but many do so without pay. Defense alone accounts for over 800,000 employees, with nearly half exempt to maintain readiness. Veterans Affairs and Homeland Security also keep most staff on the job. By contrast, agencies like Treasury, Agriculture, and Commerce see heavier furloughs, meaning critical services like tax processing, farm programs, and trade oversight grind to a halt. All told, nearly 900,000 workers could be directly furloughed this time, while millions more are forced to work without pay, highlighting just how disruptive a full shutdown really is. Source: stockmarket.news
The federal government has officially shut down after Congress failed to pass short-term funding
Source. ABC News
