Syz the moment

Bloomberg estimates ➡️ the Iran war accounts for about a third of the price

Trump told reporters in the Oval Office on Monday afternoon that he wanted to delay the summit by a month as he grapples with the war in Iran. He had been scheduled to leave for Beijing in just over two weeks. “I’d love to but because of the war, I want to be here,” Trump said, adding the White House had requested Beijing “delay” the visit by “a month or so”. “It’s very simple. I have got a war going on,” he added. Trump’s push to delay the summit comes as the White House deals with the dramatic fallout from the ongoing conflict in the Gulf, including the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. The closure of the strait, through which 20 per cent of the world’s oil passes, has had a major impact on the price of crude, sending the cost of petrol soaring in the US just months before critical midterm elections. Source: FT

When Trump asked the world to send warships, here’s what each country said: France officially rejected, China gave no response and called it a “sovereign right,” the United Kingdom said it was “discussing options with allies” with no commitment, Japan remained silent despite 70% of its Middle East oil passing through Hormuz, South Korea gave no confirmation, Germany and Norway rejected convoy support, Qatar stopped gas production and declared force majeure, the UAE noted Gulf states tried to stop the war, and Iran continued attacking ships, laying mines, and blocking the strait. Ten countries. Zero warships. Source: Whale.Guru, @Whale_Guru

Donald Trump warned NATO allies that the alliance could face a “very bad” future if they refuse to help the US reopen the Strait of Hormuz, which Iran effectively closed after the US–Israel war began two weeks earlier. The strait is crucial for global energy, carrying about 20% of the world’s oil, and oil prices have surged to about $106 per barrel since the conflict started. Trump is urging European allies and China—who rely heavily on Gulf oil—to contribute military support such as minesweepers and special forces to secure the waterway and counter Iranian drones and mines. He criticized allies, particularly the UK, for responding slowly and questioned whether NATO partners would support the US as the US has supported them (e.g., Ukraine). Trump also suggested he might delay an upcoming summit with China’s President Xi Jinping if Beijing does not help reopen the strait. The US claims it has severely weakened Iran’s military, but Iran can still disrupt shipping using mines and drones. Trump warned the US could launch further strikes on Iran’s oil infrastructure, including Kharg Island, if tensions escalate. Bottom line: Trump is pressuring NATO allies and China to join US efforts to reopen the Strait of Hormuz during the Iran conflict, warning that their response could affect NATO’s future and hinting at further military escalation. Source: FT, CNBC

The U.S. is currently allowing Iranian oil tankers to pass through the Strait of Hormuz to keep global markets supplied. Iran is still exporting around 1.5 million barrels per day, though tanker traffic in the region has dropped sharply due to attacks. Some ships supplying India and China are still moving through. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent says the priority is preventing a global supply shock while tensions remain high. The Strait of Hormuz normally carries about 20% of the world’s oil, and oil prices have jumped roughly 40% since the conflict began, with Brent crude hovering around $102 per barrel. The expectation is that once the conflict stabilizes and shipping protection increases, oil prices could fall well below $80. The U.S. denies intervening in oil futures markets. For now, the strategy is simple: keep the oil flowing, stabilize global supply, and avoid a bigger crisis. Source: U.S. Treasury, market reports

The KOSPI “VIX” currently trades more like an oil volatility proxy than a traditional equity vol index. Latest note on Korea here. Source: LSEG Workspace, TME

The IEA proposes releasing 400 million barrels—the largest ever—to ease crude prices amid the U.S.-Israel–Iran conflict. Yet with 18–20 mb/d of disrupted supply through the Strait of Hormuz, even coordinated G7 releases (~2.2 mb/d over six months) can only partially offset the shock, cooling but not stopping the oil rally. Source: WSJ, Bloomberg, Joumanna Bercetche

Only a few dozen mines are confirmed so far… but that’s the appetizer. Analysts say Iran has thousands more ready to go, enough to turn the strait into a long-term maritime death maze. Clearing it could take months, and that’s if no one’s shooting during the process. Source: Map Narratives, Mario Nawfal on X