Red Sea Transit Volume
Source: BofA, Win Smart
Iran seizes oil tanker involved in U.S. dispute off coast of Oman. Crude oil is up 2% on the news
-> Iran has captured an oil tanker previously involved in a Washington-Tehran dispute over carrying U.S.-sanctioned crude, state media said. -> Earlier on Thursday, the U.K. Marine Trade Operations said an unnamed tanker was boarded by armed individuals near the Gulf of Oman and appeared to change course toward Iranian waters. .> The tanker is embroiled in a dispute between Iran and the U.S. and previously surrendered Iranian crude to U.S. authorities following allegations of sanctions violations. -> Bloomberg confirmed that the Marshall Islands-flagged tanker "St Nikolas" is the vessel that was hijacked. A previous report says that St Nikolas was seized by the US last year, sailing under a different name, "Suez Rajan," for transporting unauthorized Iranian cargo. -> Empire Navigation, the vessel's operator, said the tanker was loaded with 145,000 tons of crude from the Iraqi port of Basra and was en route to Aliaga in western Turkey through the Suez Canal. It noted all communication with the vessel had been lost. -> The hijacking incident was near another chokepoint: the Hormuz Strait between Oman and Iran.
The "multipolar world" will remain a major topic in 2024 as the rewiring of the global commerce system creates geopolitical risks & business model shifts that will last decades
The Dollar’s & Euro's share in global CenBank reserves dropped. Greenback accounted for 59.2% of globally allocated FX reserves in Q3 2023, down from a revised 59.4% in Q2, lowest since Q4 2022. Euro’s share in reserves also fell to 19.6% from 19.7%, while the participation of Japan's Yen rose to 5.5% from 5.3%. Source: HolgerZ, Bloomberg
Oh boy... Container shipping rates skyrocket 173%
Carriers diverted +$200 billion in trade from the red sea due to Houthi militant threats. shipping a 40-foot container from Asia to northern Europe now costs over $4,000, up +173%. Supply-chain issues are back.. Have markets been celebrating the end of inflation too soon? Source: Genevieve Roch-Decter, CFA, Bloomberg
MAP OF THE DAY: Sometimes, a picture is worth a thousand words. Container ships heading toward Europe and/or North America, with almost all avoiding the Red Sea (red)
More than two weeks after the launch of US-led 'Prosperity Guardian', the Houthis still rule in the Red Sea. Source: Javier Blas
Net effect of slowbalization is growing stagflation risk
Update "slowbalization" chart by IMF.
Ocean Freight
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MAP OF THE DAY: The number of ships that have diverted from the Red Sea and instead taken the 10/14-day longer route around Africa has risen to >100.
The map shows **container ships** declaring European ports as destination, with one only left in the Red Sea | Red Sea Source: Javier Blas
