Trump's odds are back on the rise.
🟥 Trump • 57.7% chance 🟦 Harris • 42.3% chance Tomorrow is election day. Source: Polymarket
When to expect swing state results (could take days)
Source: ian bremmer @ianbremmer
Pennsylvania is the key state to watch. The winner there might takes it all.
Volatility on this state in betting websites is huge and should not be overread. A few hours ago Trump is back on top (Polymarkets). That could flip again today.
🚨 US ELECTION UPDATE >>> The "Trump trade" took a hit yesterdy (see bitcoin now trading below $70k).
One of the reasons could be this: Yesterday saw a big jump in Kamala's Michigan odds where she is again back on top; Wisconsin is also on the cusp of going back blue. After Trump had a comfortable lead in all swing states over the past week (he still leads comfortably in AZ, NC, PA, NV, GA) there has been a reversal in MI and WI. Thuis makes the race tighter hence some profit taking. Source: zerohedge
An agreement would mark the most significant de-escalation of the war since Russia invaded Ukraine in early 2022.
Source: FT
This graphic, via Visual Capitalist's Kayla Zhu, visualizes the share of exports and imports that move through the Taiwan Strait, broken down by the G7 and BRICS countries.
With China continuing to conduct military drills near Taiwan, as well as recently reaffirming that use of force will always remain an option to bring Taiwan under its control, concerns have grown over how potential Chinese actions in the region could impact global trade through the Taiwan Strait.BRICS countries overall are more exposed to disruptions to trade routes in the Taiwan Strait, specifically China, the United Arab Emirates, and Iran. The latter two have 24% or more of its exports pass through the strait. China and Japan are the most reliant on the Taiwan Strait for both imports and exports, specifically imports. Almost a third of both countries’ imports pass through the Taiwan Strait. Source: Visual Capitalist, www.zerohedge.com
JUST IN: Chinese President Xi Jinping says BRICS must promote a new financial system.
"There is an urgent need to reform the international financial architecture, and BRICS must play a leading role in promoting a new system that better reflects the profound changes in the international economic balance of power."
BREAKING: Donald Trump now leads in all swing states in the 2024 election with a 60% chance of winning the election.
With over $100 million traded on Kalshi, election markets continue to suggest Trump's lead is widening. The election is now 11 days away. Source: The Kobeissi Letter
