Syz the moment

Andy Burnham now positioned as a potential successor, setting Britain on track for its seventh prime minister in just a decade.

➡️ Who is he? Andy Burnham, 56, is the Labour mayor of Greater Manchester, the "King of the North," who built his profile on regional regeneration ("Manchesterism"). ➡️ How can he become the UK new PM? On June 19 he won the Makerfield by-election with nearly 55%, clearing his path to challenge PM Keir Starmer for the Labour leadership. Under party rules he needs 81 MPs to trigger a contest; the UK system would let him become PM without a general election. ➡️ How his policy could diverge from Starmer? Burnham sits left of the Starmer–Reeves administration. He has vowed to put energy, housing, water and transport under "stronger public control" and backs nationalising Thames Water. The market-relevant point: he previously said the UK must stop being "in hock to the bond market" and floated ~£40bn of extra borrowing, with defence spending outside the fiscal rules. The core divergence is a looser fiscal stance versus Reeves's self-imposed rules. ➡️Could the UK face another fiscal crisis? This is a real tail risk, partly priced, but most analysts see a Truss-style blowup as unlikely rather than negligible. Bear case: the UK has the G7's highest borrowing costs, long gilts above 5%, and minimal headroom; the by-election win push 10-year yields up, and some warn markets underestimate the risk of Burnham testing the rules. The 2022 Truss episode is the reference point. A drawn-out contest adds a risk premium, and the chancellor pick (Number 11) matters more than Number 10. Mitigants: Burnham is walking back his rhetoric, now backing the fiscal rules; the Truss episode itself disciplines any successor; and oil, not politics, is currently the main gilt driver. Net: not a base-case crisis, but a credible left-tail — most likely triggered by a disorderly transition plus an unfunded Autumn Budget. Watch items: long-end gilts, the gilt-Bund spread, and sterling on escalation. Key markers ahead: whether 81 MPs line up, transition speed, and the prospective Treasury team.

Iran has reportedly suspended the entire 60-day negotiation process with the U.S., citing Israeli strikes on Lebanon, according to Fars and Al-Mayadeen. Vice President JD Vance has reportedly postponed his planned trip to Switzerland, where U.S.-Iran talks were set to begin Friday, per Axios. Both delegations were preparing to depart before the talks were called off. Note that is barely moving Source: Coin Bureau

in response to steps on its nuclear program after the US and Iran reached a deal to end their war. Source: Al Jazeera Breaking News @AJENews

After 107 days of war, the US and Iran have now officially reached a peace deal, with the signing set for June 19th in Switzerland.

Shehbaz Sharif said both sides have declared the immediate and permanent termination of military operations on all fronts, adding that the signing ceremony would take place in Switzerland. “Following intensive talks, we are pleased to announce that the Peace Deal between the United States of America and Islamic Republic of Iran has been REACHED,” he said on X. “With the agreement now in place, mediators will facilitate a series of meetings this week. These pre-implementation discussions will lay the foundation for the technical talks and the official signing ceremony.” Source: FT

- Oil is tumbling, as the Hormuz Risk Premium unwinds. Oil fell to its lowest level since March - Nikkei 225 surges and hit 69,000 for the 1st time ever - Nasdaq futures are up +1.8% - Precious metals and cryptos soar - US 10 year yield drops 5bps to 4.42%

Deal pretty much wrapped up' sparking a plunge in oil (ignoring denials), spike in stocks, and big drop in yields (shrugging off hot headline PPI and ECB rate-hikes). CNN reports that this is the 38th time that President Trump has declared a peace deal is imminent... Source: zerohedge