Syz the moment

China buys roughly 90% of Iran’s oil exports, largely through independent refiners. Purchases are slowing — from around 823,000 barrels/day in July to 534,000 in August — but they haven’t stopped. Now the stakes are rising. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has warned that entities doing business with Iran could be cut off from the US dollar system. Beijing’s response? Sanctions are not the solution, and China will defend its economic interests. The potential escalation is significant: If China keeps buying Iranian crude, Washington could move against Chinese financial institutions facilitating those trades. At that point, this would no longer be just about Iran. It could become a direct financial confrontation between the US and China — with the dollar system at the center of it. Source: Bull Theory

Monday: • Treasury Secretary Bessent announces new Iran economic measures Wednesday: • 🇺🇸 US PCE inflation • 🇺🇸 US Q2 GDP revision • $NVDA earnings report Thursday: • Bank of Korea interest rate decision • Jackson Hole Symposium begins Friday: • Fed Chair Kevin Warsh speaks at Jackson Hole Source: CryptoTweets

• The US Treasury secretary announces an unprecedented campaign to impose “total financial isolation” on Iran, describing it as an “economic D-Day” following the degradation of Iran’s military and nuclear capabilities. • The strategy extends beyond Iran itself. Washington will target every country, company and financial institution that buys or transports Iranian oil, processes its payments, registers its ships or aircraft, or facilitates sanctions evasion. • Iran’s remaining partners face a binary choice: sever their links with Tehran and retain access to global capital, or risk secondary sanctions, financial isolation and treatment by Washington as “global pariahs”. • The objective is to eliminate every economic lifeline supporting the Iranian regime—potentially weakening it to the point of collapse—while avoiding further direct US military intervention. • The message is also a deterrent: American enforcement is no longer negotiable, and any Iranian attack against US forces or Gulf allies would trigger a rapid and decisive military response. Bottom line: This signals a major escalation from sanctions on Iran to a direct ultimatum against the entire network supporting it—with potentially significant consequences for oil flows, global trade, inflation and relations between the US and Iran’s economic partners.

Nate Silver thru Christophe Barraud

Source: Bull Theory

The call comes amid a domestic debate over the US weapons arsenal, following reports that the war in Iran has led to the country's stockpile of air defense missiles shrinking too quickly. Source: Sweden Herald

Saudi Aramco has built an alternative route that bypasses both the Strait of Hormuz and the Red Sea. Oil moves from Yanbu to Ain Sokhna, through the SUMED pipeline, exits via Sidi Kerir, and then sails around the Cape of Good Hope to reach Asia. The catch? That "safer" route now costs about $5 per barrel more once freight, insurance, and pipeline fees are included. On a typical cargo, that's roughly $10 million in additional costs. The impact is now so significant that Aramco is developing a separate pricing formula for these shipments because its standard Asia Official Selling Price (OSP) no longer reflects the true economics. The key takeaway: The market has been treating alternative routes as a free solution. They never were. Those costs are now becoming visible, and they're another reason why the true cost of oil is moving higher, even when headline crude prices don't fully reflect it. Source: Jack Prandelli on X

Iran has indicated it will stop carrying out attacks as long as the U.S. also refrains from striking, Reuters reported. There is now a 55% chance that the United States 🇺🇸 and Iran 🇮🇷 will sign a ceasefire this month, according to Polymarket traders Source: Evan, CNBC