BRENT CRUDE OIL JUST JUMPED BACK OVER $90 PER BARREL
Source: Evan @StockMKTNewz Bloomberg
The U.S. will impose 25% tariffs on imports from Brazil, the world's 10th-largest economy.
The U.S. cited Brazil's unfair trade practices, including weak anti-corruption enforcement and trade barriers, despite running a goods trade surplus with the country for years. Some products include Beef, chicken meat and coffee will be exempt from the new tariffs. The tariffs will take effect on July 22. Source: Bull Theory
Her's why crack spreads are surging everywhere... Russia's refining system is showing real signs of strain.
Russian refinery throughput fell to just 3.8 million barrels per day in June, down 1.5 million bpd from the start of 2026. For comparison, refinery runs during 2023–2025 were consistently around 5.0–5.7 million bpd at this point in the year. Then came April 2026. Throughput collapsed—and has yet to recover. The key driver? Ukrainian drone strikes appear to have inflicted more immediate damage on Russia's refining capacity than years of Western sanctions. The impact extends far beyond Russia. With fewer Russian refined products reaching global markets, diesel and other fuel supplies have tightened, helping drive crack spreads sharply higher. Sometimes the clearest signal isn't the price of crude—it's what refiners can no longer produce. Source: Jack Prandelli on X
Update (7/12 PM): The tape keeps thinning
7 commercial crossings in the last 24h (5 E→W / 2 W→E), down from 11 yesterday and barely ~6% of the Jan–Feb run-rate. Brent's grinding higher, ~$78.79 and climbing as the closure prices in. Flow down, crude up Source: @TheTerminal Michael McDonough
Amid the sharp military escalation, odds of a full Iran blockade by July 13 jumped 50% since the last update 4 days ago
Source: zerohedge, Polymarket
BREAKING: President Trump just ordered to immediately halt all trade with Spain.
Trump made the remarks during a NATO meeting while standing next to NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte. Trump's core complaint is that Spain refuses to pay its NATO defense spending commitments. While Germany, France, the UK, and Italy have all been contributing, Spain has openly resisted meeting the 2% GDP defense spending target that NATO members are required to hit. Trump said he tested NATO members during the Iran conflict to see which ones would show up and support the US. Spain did not. "Spain is a terrible partner in NATO. They don't participate, they don't pay." "Cut off all trade with Spain immediately. Don't even talk to them. Including visits." Spain is one of the US's significant trading partners in Europe. The US exports roughly $16 billion worth of goods to Spain annually. Trump is threatening to end that entirely over NATO non compliance. "They make so much money with us and we are going to see that they make a lot less." Source: Bull Theory @BullTheoryio
🚨 Donald Trump has escalated pressure on Europe, warning that the US could withdraw all American troops from the continent unless allies do more on defense.
He also renewed his demand for US control of Greenland, arguing the Arctic island is strategically vital against growing Chinese and Russian influence. The remarks revive one of the biggest sources of tension within NATO, as European leaders fear a weakening of the US security commitment. With around 80,000 US troops stationed across Europe, any significant withdrawal would mark a historic shift in transatlantic security and reshape the continent’s defense landscape. Source: FT
Traffic through Strait of Hormuz continues to ramp up
Source: Bloomberg
