BREAKING: 14% of all commercial real estate (CRE) loans and 44% of office building loans are now in "negative equity."
In other words, the debt is now greater than the property value on all of these properties. Currently, US banks hold over $2.9 trillion of CRE debt, the majority of which is held by regional banks. Office building prices are down 40% from their highs and CRE as a whole is down over 20%. All as rates rise and many of these loans are due CRE is beyond bear market territory.
The median price of a new home sold in the US is down 17% from its peak in October 2022 (from $496,800 to $413,200)
After the last housing bubble peak the median new home price fell 22% nationally before bottoming. Source: Charlie Bilello
Real estate as inflation protection in one chart, updated
Source: Michel A.Arouet
Why are homes so expensive in Canada?
Source: Wall Street Silver, The Economist
44% of office loans carry outstanding loan balances higher than the property value and are at risk of default according to a paper from the National Bureau of Economic Research
Source: Barchart
A record 85% of Americans now say it's a bad time to buy a house, according to Reventure
Two years ago, just ~30% of Americans thought it was a bad time to buy a home. Even in 2008, during the worst housing crisis of all time, this metric did not top 85%. In a market with high rates and supply levels 40% below the historical average, affordability is at all time lows. Source: The Kobeissi Letter
Billions of commercial real estate debt mature this year
Unlike US home loans, CRE debt is almost entirely interest-only. Borrowers tend to have low monthly payments but face a balloon payment equal to original loan on maturity. Source: Dabiel Baeza, TS Lombard
Homelessness in the US has grown to the highest level since the Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) started tracking the figure back in 2007
With a record 653,104 people experiencing homelessness at the latest annual count. The number of people experiencing unsheltered homelessness — those living on sidewalks or in abandoned buildings, bus stations, etc. — was up around 47k from last year, while the figure for people staying in emergency shelters, transitional housing programs, or safe havens grew 23k in the same period. Source: Chartr
