Mortgage demand is now down 50% from pre-pandemic levels and at its lowest level since 1994
From its peak in 2021, mortgage demand is down ~64%. Current mortgage demand is ~75% below the 2005 peak. The most incredible part of this? Mortgage rates are still only at their historical average. Housing market activity is coming to a halt. Source: The Kobeissi Letter
US Home Prices hit a new all-time high in August while affordability has plummeted to record lows...please explain...
Source: Charlie Bilello
The US housing market conundrum ->
New home sales just surged 12.3% month-over-month in September, the largest jump since August 2022. Even as mortgage rates push above 8% for the first time in 23 years, new home sales are surging. The gap between new home sales and mortgage rates has never been wider. Why is this happening? Explanation by The Kobeissi Letter: -> Homebuilders are taking on some of the cost of higher mortgages AND existing home sales are at their lowest since 2010. New homes are the only option for buyers and homebuilders are helping pay for it. Source: The Kobeissi Letter, www.zerohedge.com
The premium to buy a home vs. rent one has soared to 52%, the highest level ever recorded
Even in 2008, the premium to own peaked at 33%. Source: barchart
As mortgage rates hit 8% for the first time in 23 years, affordability continues to fall off a cliff
The Housing Affordability Index just hit a fresh record low, at ~90. This means that housing affordability is officially down 50% since 2021. Since then peak in 2012, housing affordability is down nearly 70%. Buying a home has become a luxury. Source: The Kobeissi Letter, www.zerohedge.com
Amazing chart about Canada housing market (on the right) vs. US housing market (on the left).
Source: Michel A.Arouet
JUST IN: The Value of US Distressed commercial real-eestate is approaching $80 billion, the highest level in a decade Now less than HALF the 2008 financial crisis levels
Blackstone, Brookfield and Goldman Sachs have defaulted or relinquished offices to lenders this year. Today, Pimco walked away from 20 hotels with +$240MM in debt. Over $1.5 trillion of commercial real estate loans will mature over the next 3 years. Source: Bloomberg, Genevieve Roch-Decter, CFA, Barchart
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