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Here's one illustration of the US commercial real estate market meltdown: values of commercial real estate continues to get destroyed in Chicago...
A 155k SF office building in Chicago just sold for $17 million, or $109 per SF The seller took a huge 61% loss, paying $44 million for the building in 2017 Here's a worrying snippet from Crain's: "Thanks to remote work and higher interest rates, real estate investors can buy downtown office buildings on the cheap these days. Add a motivated seller trying to unload all of its office stock and the discount gets even steeper. Many office properties in the heart of the [Chicago] are now worth less than the mortgages tied to them, fueling a historic wave of distress." It will be interesting to see how bad the US commercial real estate meltdown gets (particularly in office) but it's certainly a story to keep an eye on in 2024 as big opportunities emerge". Source: TripleNetInvest
As highlighted by The Kobeissi Letter, the US housing market is having its historical moment
The US housing market is having its historical moment. Indeed, Real home prices in the US are currently almost 10% MORE expensive than they were in 2008. In fact, real home prices are now 80% ABOVE the 130-year historical average, according to Reventure. This means that even on an inflation adjusted basis, home prices have never been more expensive. Meanwhile, housing supply is 40% below the historical average. All while mortgage demand is at its lowest since 1994 and the median homebuyer now has a $3000/month payment. Source: The Kobeissi Letter, Reventure
Buying a home is now 52% more expensive than renting, the highest premium on record (note: the premium peaked at 33% during the last housing bubble in 2006)
Source: Charlie Bilello
THE US REAL ESTATE MARKET IS MAKING HISTORY...
As highlighted by The Kobeissi Letter -> For the first time since 2005, new home prices are set to drop below existing home prices. In other words, new will be selling for LESS than old. The median new home price is down to ~$410,000 while the median existing home prices is nearing $400,000. Why is this happening? ~90% of mortgages outstanding currently have an interest rate that is below 5%. Many mortgage rates are BELOW the current inflation rate. A mortgage issued in 2020 or 2021 is effectively an asset now. Truly historic. Source: The Kobeissi Letter
The US population has increased 87% since 1960 but fewer homes are being built today than back then
Source: Charlie Bilello
Global Property Guide
Q2 2023 gross rental yields for apartments/condos in over 250 cities across 60+ countries: Dublin: 7.70% Istanbul: 6.21% Dubai: 6.13% Warsaw: 6.02% Madrid: 5.27% Athens: 5.25% Amsterdam: 5.00% Singapore: 4.78% Vienna: 3.29% Zurich: 3.11% Hong Kong: 3.08% Source: https://lnkd.in/eTaAkcHM
Compared to a year ago, the CPI for rent spiked by 8.2% in October, up from 7.3% in September, and the biggest year-over-year spike since April 1983
Soure: Wolfstreet.com, WallStreetSilver
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