A Hong Kong court has ruled that Evergrande, China's largest real estate developer, must be liquidated
The stock is now down another 20% today on the news and trading has been halted. Evergrande is now considered the most indebted property developer in the world. This comes at a time when China's HY Real Estate Index is down 85% in 2 years. China is also preparing hundreds of billions in economic stimulus along with considering a ban on short selling. Source: The Kobeissi Letter
BREAKING: 14% of all commercial real estate (CRE) loans and 44% of office building loans are now in "negative equity."
In other words, the debt is now greater than the property value on all of these properties. Currently, US banks hold over $2.9 trillion of CRE debt, the majority of which is held by regional banks. Office building prices are down 40% from their highs and CRE as a whole is down over 20%. All as rates rise and many of these loans are due CRE is beyond bear market territory.
The median price of a new home sold in the US is down 17% from its peak in October 2022 (from $496,800 to $413,200)
After the last housing bubble peak the median new home price fell 22% nationally before bottoming. Source: Charlie Bilello
Real estate as inflation protection in one chart, updated
Source: Michel A.Arouet
Why are homes so expensive in Canada?
Source: Wall Street Silver, The Economist
44% of office loans carry outstanding loan balances higher than the property value and are at risk of default according to a paper from the National Bureau of Economic Research
Source: Barchart
A record 85% of Americans now say it's a bad time to buy a house, according to Reventure
Two years ago, just ~30% of Americans thought it was a bad time to buy a home. Even in 2008, during the worst housing crisis of all time, this metric did not top 85%. In a market with high rates and supply levels 40% below the historical average, affordability is at all time lows. Source: The Kobeissi Letter
Billions of commercial real estate debt mature this year
Unlike US home loans, CRE debt is almost entirely interest-only. Borrowers tend to have low monthly payments but face a balloon payment equal to original loan on maturity. Source: Dabiel Baeza, TS Lombard
