Housing | According to Bankrate.com‘s data, US 30-Year fixed-rate mortgage reached 7.78%, the highest rate since August 2000
*This situation is expected to have a significant effect on closed sales from September to November. Source: C.Barraud
US Home Prices hit a new all-time high in July while affordability has plummeted to record lows
Source: Charlie Bilello
Home price to income ratios are now above 4.5x and at their highest levels since the 1950s
Even in the 2008 financial crisis, home price to income ratios did not cross 4.5x. This means that home price to income ratios are the same as the post-WW2 era in the US. The median home price to income ratio is 1.2x below current levels, at 3.2x. Either home values need to fall or income needs to rise. Source: The Kobeissi Letter
Is the German real estate bubble bursting?
The Europace House Price Index for existing homes crashed by 2% in August, and has now lost 16% from the top in Apr2022. Only the index for newly built homes has remained unch, this is due to the low level of new construction activity. Source: Bloomberg, HolgerZ
Median US home prices are now contracting at a level only seen 2 times in the last 60 years:
- 1970 - 2008 Both ended in severe recessions Source: FRED, Game of Trades
If you think housing in the US is not affordable anymore take a look at New Zealand, Canada and Sweden 👇
BCA research through Michael A.Arouet
US commercial real estate prices prices are down sharply this year with offices building prices down ~30%
On top of declining prices, there are nearly $1.4 TRILLION of commercial real estate loans coming due by 2025. Meanwhile, rates on the commercial real estate loans have more than doubled since they were issued. Last but not least, vacancies in commercial real estate are skyrocketing (which means rent revenue is down). The coktail of rising rates on loans that need to be refinanced and declining income looks like a rather toxic one. Source: The Kobeisi Letter
Rice likely to get even more expensive as India imposes additional restrictions
India further tightens rice exports as the government sets a floor price of $1,200 per tonne for basmati rice exports. India also imposes a 20% tax on rice sales abroad. Rice is a staple food for half the world. Source: Barchart, Bloomberg
