The cost of both buying and renting a house in America has skyrocketed since 2020
Buying a house now costs $2,700/month on average, up an alarming ~86% in 3 years. Renting a house now costs $1,850/month on average, also up ~25% in 3 years. Owning a home has become a luxury. Source: The Kobeissi Letter
Property values in commercial real estate are beyond bear market territory
- Office buildings are down nearly 30% over the last year ALONE. - Apartments down 15% and underperforming malls. - Hotels are flat as markets await a potential drop in consumers spending. - Real estate markets are feeling the effects of higher interest rates. Source: The Kobeissi Letter, Bloomberg
US Property loans are so unappealing that banks want to dump them
Lenders including GS and JPM. have been trying to sell debt backed by offices, hotels and even apartments in recent months, but many are finding that tidying up loan books is no easy feat when concerns about commercial real estate have surged.
Maturing loans that will need to be refinanced is a major concern in a high-interest-rates environment. Source: Bloomberg, Green Street
US housing -> Lots of US Homeowners Want to Move. They Just Have Nowhere to Go
Locked into cheaper borrowing costs and unable to find a new place that fits their budgets, countless people are opting to remain in their current homes, adding to an acute shortage of available properties Source: Bloomberg
The median sales price of a home in the US is now 560% of the median household income.
In 2008, it was 360% of the median household income. This is the least affordable housing market in history. Source: The Kobeissi Letter
Housing is becoming unaffordable!
Over the last decade, property prices have steadily increased in many regions The index in the UK is lower than the global average, whilst the US is substantially higher. Source: Genuine Impact
The median price of an existing home sold in the US is up 14% from the January low, now less than 1% below its all-time high from June 2022.
How could it be? Consider the #chart below courtesy of Charlie Bilello: The US Population is 19% higher than where it was in January 2000 while the inventory of Existing Homes for sale in the US is 37% lower. Economics 101 -> higher demand and lower supply drive prices higher.
Distressed US Offices Jump to $24.8 Billion, More Than Malls
Source: Bloomberg, C.Barraud
