Existing Home Sales Crash To Slowest Since 2010
Sales actually fell 4.1% MoM (far worse than expected and down for the 20th time in the last 23 months) with September's 2.0% MoM decline revised even lower to -2.2% MoM. That decline left existing home sales down 14.6% YoY... Fewer US existing homes are selling today than at any point since 2010. The 3.79 million annual rate is even below the lowest level of sales during the 2020 covid shutdowns (4.01 million). The chart below by Francois Trahan puts things in greater perspective and shows that when adjusting for population, this is one of the worse housing profiles we have seen in decades. On this "per household" basis October existing home sales data was worse than the lowest reading seen at the depths of the GFC. Source: François Trahan
Which countries have the most rate sensitive household sectors?
Source: BCA, The Longview
Property foreclosure filings have been increasing recently
This is the result of high interest rates resulting in rising mortgage defaults. Source: Game of Trades
US median home prices are contracting aggressively. In just 2 years, the % has gone from over 20% to -7.9%. This is THE sharpest collapse on record
Current levels have occurred ONLY 2 times in the last 60 years: 1. 1970 2. 2008 Both instances ended with equities declining more than 30%. Source: Game of Trades
Prospective California homeowners currently in the market would need to make $221,200 annually to qualify to purchase a median-price, single-story home in California, typically costing $843,600
The latest figures show that California’s housing affordability rates continue to decrease. The figures released during the third quarter are down from 16% in the second quarter of 2023. For comparison, about 56% of California home buyers could afford a home during the first quarter of 2012, the index’s peak high. Source: Wall Street Silver
From The Kobeissi Letter -> Bankruptcy documents show that WeWork, $WE, will immediately break 40 office leases in New York City
Documents also show that WeWork plans to break leases on 70 properties in New York City. Note that 40 of these locations are completely empty. Once a $47 billion company, WeWork still has 700 locations world wide. Could this bankruptcy worsen the commercial real estate crisis?
Mortgage demand is now down 50% from pre-pandemic levels and at its lowest level since 1994
From its peak in 2021, mortgage demand is down ~64%. Current mortgage demand is ~75% below the 2005 peak. The most incredible part of this? Mortgage rates are still only at their historical average. Housing market activity is coming to a halt. Source: The Kobeissi Letter
US Home Prices hit a new all-time high in August while affordability has plummeted to record lows...please explain...
Source: Charlie Bilello
