US Commercial real estate sales volume have fallen to the lowest level in 13 years
Source: Green Street
US Housing | The National Association of Realtors’ index of contract signings tumbled 7.1% to 71.8 from July, the group reported Thursday
The decline was larger than all estimates in a Bloomberg survey of economists. *US AUG. PENDING HOME SALES FALL 7.1% M/M; EST. DOWN 1% *US AUG. PENDING HOME SALES FALL 18.8% FROM PREVIOUS YEAR Source: Bloomberg
Housing | According to Bankrate.com‘s data, US 30-Year fixed-rate mortgage reached 7.78%, the highest rate since August 2000
*This situation is expected to have a significant effect on closed sales from September to November. Source: C.Barraud
US Home Prices hit a new all-time high in July while affordability has plummeted to record lows
Source: Charlie Bilello
Home price to income ratios are now above 4.5x and at their highest levels since the 1950s
Even in the 2008 financial crisis, home price to income ratios did not cross 4.5x. This means that home price to income ratios are the same as the post-WW2 era in the US. The median home price to income ratio is 1.2x below current levels, at 3.2x. Either home values need to fall or income needs to rise. Source: The Kobeissi Letter
Is the German real estate bubble bursting?
The Europace House Price Index for existing homes crashed by 2% in August, and has now lost 16% from the top in Apr2022. Only the index for newly built homes has remained unch, this is due to the low level of new construction activity. Source: Bloomberg, HolgerZ
Median US home prices are now contracting at a level only seen 2 times in the last 60 years:
- 1970 - 2008 Both ended in severe recessions Source: FRED, Game of Trades
If you think housing in the US is not affordable anymore take a look at New Zealand, Canada and Sweden 👇
BCA research through Michael A.Arouet
