Total unsold US (single family) new homes for sale now at its highest level since...December 2007.
The increase in unsold homes takes place as housing affordability is near all-time low (mortgage rates AND prices are too high). A few remarks though: -There is a lack of inventory in some states while in other states inventory is building up due to population loss. - The chart is NOT normalized by population. The US population is about twice that compared to 1960. If you normalize the number from today compared to 1960, they might actually be the same. Source: Don Johnson @DonMiami3
82% of Americans say it's a bad time to buy a house in late 2024.
That's the most pessimistic homebuyers have ever been about the housing market. Helps explain why homebuyer demand is so low. Source: Nick Gerli, re:venture
US HOUSING AFFORDABILITY HAS NEVER BEEN WORSE
84% of US consumers believe it is a bad time to buy a home, near the most on record. The share is greater than in the 1980s when rates were sky-high and as much as 20% versus 4.5% now. House prices are also near record highs. Source: Global Markets Investor
Between 2000 and 2024:
US Income +24% US House prices +140% Source: Trend Spider
One of the reasons mentioned by many analysts to explain the aggressive rate cut (50bps) by the Fed in September was the following:macr
Shelter is the sticky component of inflation. If the Fed cut rates, we should see a drop in the mortgage rate which will enable more real estate supply and thus lower shelter inflation. Well, the Fed cut rates but mortgage rates are not declining. They are even moving higher? Has the Fed lost control of the bond market?
Miami tops a global list of cities most at risk of a housing bubble.
The annual UBS Global Real Estate Bubble Index for 2024, which analyzes residential property prices in 25 major cities worldwide, revealed that Miami’s soaring housing market had the highest bubble risk with an index score of 1.79 — beating Tokyo and Zurich for the top spot. Source: Chartr, UBS
Buying a rental property in America is no longer profitable.
Because the current mortgage rate (6.1%) is significantly higher than the profit/cap rate (4.4%) of rentals. This means that any investor who uses debt to finance their purchase is likely losing money on cash flow from Day 1. Note how from 2012-2022, the opposite was true. Cap Rates were higher than mortgage interest. Which is why so many people piled into single-family rentals. This is no longer the case... Will the Fed jumbo rate cut start to fix this? Source: Nick Gerli, re:venture
There are now 476,000 new homes for sale in the US, the highest inventory since February 2008.
Source: Charlie Bilello
