This is not a Trump trade but rather a "soft landing trade" => Stocks have rallied on the prospects of a soft landing for the economy
Source: Edward Jones
Stocks have rallied on the prospects of a soft landing for the economy">
Stocks have rallied on the prospects of a soft landing for the economy">
Interesting point of view by BofA:
"Fewer investors have focused on the inflationary effects of higher income. No other Fed hiking cycle in history occurred while government debt was so large ... interest payments flow to holders of Treasury securities and some portion will be spent." Source: BofA, Octavian Adrian Tanase
ECB leaves all rates unchanged as expected.
Main Refi at 4.25%, deposit rate at 3.75%. Guidance on interest rates also stays unchanged: Not pre-committing to particular path. ECB to follow data-dependent, meeting-by-meeting approach. Source: Bloomberg, HolgerZ
For US small caps, rates just as important as growth since 2022.
And as we know, March of 2022 is when the hiking cycle began... Source: GS, RBC
A large portion of Russell 2000 debt load is floating
It thus makes a lot of sense that small-caps were the most hot by monetary policy tightening / higher interest rates. Now the Street is anticipating rate cuts, small-caps underperformance might be coming to an end... Source: GS
Markets now have a BASE CASE of 6 FED interest rate cuts over the next year.
The base case shows rate cuts at every meeting remaining in 2024 starting in September. Discussions of a 50 basis point interest rate cut have even begun to emerge. This feels a lot like January 2024 when the market went from pricing-in 3 rate cuts in 2024 to 7 in a matter of weeks. Source: The Kobeissi Letter, CME
Q2 Fixed Income Review Chart: US Treasury Yields Resilient Amid Mixed Economic Signals!
As the second quarter of 2024 unfolded, a noticeable normalization of the US economy became evident, marked by a significant downturn in the US Citi Economic Index from 33 to -29, reaching its lowest level in nearly two years. Despite these economic headwinds, the 10-year US Treasury yields closed the quarter slightly higher at 4.30%, a 10-basis point increase. This apparent contradiction between economic normalization and rising yields can be largely attributed to substantial US Treasury issuances, necessary to fund the expansive US fiscal deficit. Furthermore, persistent inflationary pressures have prompted the central bank to delay the anticipated rate cut from July to November 2024, adjusting expectations amid changing economic conditions. As we approach a typically low-liquidity summer period, any shifts in interest rates could be magnified. Additionally, with the US presidential election on the horizon, market sentiments could be further influenced by electoral outcomes. The looming question is: Which will have a greater impact on third-quarter rates—the slowdown in the US economy, the ongoing inflationary and supply pressures, or the unfolding political landscape? #Finance #Economy #TreasuryYields #EconomicIndicators #Inflation #FiscalPolicy #InterestRates #USPresidentialElection #MarketAnalysis Source: Bloomberg
CAUTION: In the US, Credit card interest rates have skyrocketed to a shocking 21.47%
Moreover, credit card debt has crossed the $1 trillion mark. And personal interest payments have risen to over $500 billion. To make things worse, excess savings have now run out Source: Game of Trades
