🚨 There is now a 99% chance of a 25 bps interest rate cut at next week's FOMC Meeting 🚨
Source: Barchart
Interesting point of view by Dr. Ed Yardeni:
"28 days since the 1st rate cut and 10-Yr. yield is up nearly +60bps. The 1995 Soft Landing rate cut cycle is almost a mirror image, as it also started its descent a few days later, a potential post-election outcome". There is one big difference though: the fiscal 6 debt situation in the US now vs. 1995... Source: Seth Golden @SethCL
In case you missed it... Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic is okay with skipping rate cut in November 🚨
Source: Barchart
US credit card interest rates hit 23.4% in August, a new record.
Over the last 2 years, rates have soared by 7 percentage points. US consumers now have a record $1.36 trillion in credit card debt and other revolving credit meaning they pay a massive $318 billion annual interest. To put this into perspective, Americans paid just half of that in 2019 at ~$160 billion. Meanwhile, credit card serious delinquency rates are at 7%, the highest level since 2011. Source: The Kobeissi Letter
Market pricing for another 50 bps rate cut at the Fed's next meeting two days after the election is now up to 60%.
@CMEGroup
US CREDIT CARD INTEREST RATES ARE AT ALL-TIME HIGHS
US credit card rates remain at record highs of ~22%. US credit card debt is now ~$1.14 trillion, also at an all-time high. This means Americans pay ~$250 billion in average interest payments on credit cards a year. Source: Global Markets Investor
US yieldcurve keeps steepening...
Source: Bloomberg, HolgerZ
🚨WHAT? US stocks fell after a 0.50% rate cut?🚨
Markets were very mixed after the Fed 'Jumbo' reduction. Big cuts are not usually a good sign BUT... Day 1 is usually not the REAL reaction. We need to wait 2 more trading sessions to see what's really going on. Market performance today: S&P 500 -0.3% Nasdaq -0.3% Russell 2000 +0.0% Dow Jones -0.3% Bitcoin +0.1% Bank Index +0.4% VIX +4%, front month futures VIX -1% Gold -0.6% WTI Crude Oil -1.3% Source. Global Markets Investor
