Syz the moment

It's not about the current earnings—it's about the Capex future. And if that future changes, the market is in for a shock. Goldman Sachs just dropped a massive warning. The Core Risk: AI Spending Reversal They say that our current S&P 500 valuation is priced for an incredible, long-term AI Capex boom (spending on AI infrastructure). What if that boom stalls? If AI capex growth expectations revert to early 2023 levels, GS estimates the S&P 500 valuation multiple could see a 15-20% DOWNSIDE. That's a huge potential correction driven only by multiple compression. The Extreme Scenario (The Nightmare Fuel) -> Imagine the Hyperscalers slamming the brakes on spending. 🔴 The expected Capex for 2026 is approximately $433 billion. A reversion to the 2022 Capex level of $158 billion would result in a massive reduction of $275 billion—the "Lost Capex." 🔴This $275 billion shortfall represents a 30% reduction to the consensus estimate of $1 trillion in S&P 500 sales growth. Consequently, the expected S&P 500 revenue growth rate would drop sharply from the consensus of 6% to approximately 4%. ➡️ Ultimately, this decrease in spending would pose a substantial downside risk to both the AI investment trade and the broader S&P 500 market. The Takeaway for investors: This isn't about today's P&L. It's about the market's perception of tomorrow's AI-driven growth. A dramatic cut in capex would signal the long-term AI earnings thesis is broken, leading to a much steeper decline in stock valuations than a simple revenue reduction would suggest. 🔑 Don't miss this point: Near-term revenues might only drop modestly, but the hit to long-term earnings growth expectations will crush valuations. Source: Goldman Sachs, Neil Sethi @neilksethi

Source: Markets & Mayhem

Source: NYT thru unusual_whales

*AMAZON SAYS NEW CHIPS ARE MORE COST EFFECTIVE THAN NVIDIA'S Source: ©️redit From Ⓜ️acro to Ⓜ️icro @Credit_Junk Bloomberg

The AI race just got a lot hotter, and the early leader is feeling the heat. 🔥 OpenAI CEO Sam Altman has declared a "code red" to completely refocus the company's efforts on its flagship product, ChatGPT. Here's the critical breakdown you need to know: The Threat: Rivals like Google (Gemini 3) and Anthropic (Opus 4.5) have recently leapfrogged OpenAI's GPT-5 on key industry benchmark tests. The lead is shrinking FAST. The Fix: A "surge" effort is underway to significantly improve speed, reliability, and personalization of ChatGPT. The Sacrifice: OpenAI is delaying other ambitious projects—like AI agents for shopping/health, advertising products, and personalized news (Pulse)—to dedicate resources to the core chatbot. The Stakes: This is a "critical time" for the $500bn start-up, grappling with intense competition, soaring data center costs, and the non-stop battle for top AI talent. Stats That Matter: ChatGPT still has a dominant market share with over 800 million weekly users. BUT, users are now spending more time chatting with Google's Gemini than with ChatGPT (per Similarweb data). ChatGPT already accounts for roughly 10% of global search activity and is growing quickly. The Bottom Line: The AI frontier is moving at warp speed. As Google integrates its powerful, bespoke-chip-trained Gemini 3 models immediately, OpenAI is forced to pause future innovations to defend its core product. The fight for the AI crown is officially on! Who do you think wins this high-stakes race? 👇 Source: FT

In the 2 weeks since the Gemini launch, ChatGPT unique daily active users (7-day average) are down -6%. Source: Deedy @deedydas

So the ~100 GW of announced capacity implies roughly $8T of capex & “no way you’re going to get a return on that,” since you’d need “about $800B of profit just to pay for the interest” Source: Wall St Engine

https://lnkd.in/eMkGJKyi Source: Jack Farley @JackFarley96, FT