Syz the moment

Goldman Sachs sees AI winners in hardware, cloud, infrastructure, and security (e.g., Nvidia, TSMC, Microsoft, Cloudflare), while traditional software and consulting (e.g., Salesforce, SAP, Accenture) lose as AI commoditizes code and cuts billable hours. The key: compute, power, and security beat software and platforms, reshaping the tech stack. Source: Michael Fritzell (Asian Century Stocks) @MikeFritzell

The most exposed are in the high/right corner, and most of these have a negative YTD return. Source: Credit From macro to micro @Credit_Junk

OpenAI is projected to spend $218B from 2026–2029—far more than Uber, Netflix, and Tesla combined (~$39B)—while top AI researchers note that more compute now yields marginal gains (Source: Hedgie). Unlike companies with clear revenue paths, OpenAI is losing money on $200/month plans, chasing scale in a field with diminishing returns, driving GPU shortages and higher costs. Meanwhile, AI’s actual contribution to U.S. economic growth was minimal, raising questions about sustainability once investor optimism fades.

Markets are reacting for a reason (Source: Bull Theory). Visa (-4.6%), Mastercard (-5.7%), AmEx (-7.2%), and Capital One (-8.8%) fell as AI-driven payments and stablecoins threaten traditional card economics. While cards charge 2–3.5% fees and higher cross-border costs, stablecoins offer near-zero fees and instant settlement. With $33T in 2025 volume (+70% YoY) and projections up to $4T supply by 2030, capital is shifting. Even incumbents are integrating stablecoin rails. Source: Bull Theory

AI code translation directly competes with IBM's legacy modernization consulting.

The piece, co-authored by Citrini Research and guest Alap Shah, managing partner at Lotus Technology Management, is written as a lookback from June 2028, when the unemployment rate has just risen to 10.2% and the S&P 500 is down 38% from its Oct. 2026 highs around 8,000. It starts with software-as-a -service companies losing sales as client demand falls, but AI usage quickly this year becomes the default among consumers and businesses constantly finding the cheapest and best option, reducing margins and profits. This leads to a collapse in white-color hiring (white-collar workers represent 50% of employment and drive roughly 75% of discretionary consumer spending), but the downturn will be secular as companies lean into AI, "a feedback loop with no natural break". Initial jobless claims spike to 487,000 by next February, the S&P 500 drops, and by the second quarter of 2027 there’s a recession when “the daisy chain of correlated bets” will start to fracture rippling through the economy impacting everything from house prices to elections. "This isn’t bear porn or AI doomer fan-fiction. The sole intent of this piece is modeling a scenario that’s been relatively underexplored,” they say. Source: Citrini Research, Neil Sethi @neilksethi

A Citrini blog post titled “The 2028 Global Intelligence Crisis” triggered another AI-driven selloff in US equities on Monday. The Goldman Sachs Software At Risk Basket fell 6% yesterday and is now down 33% year to date. Source: Bloomberg, HolgerZ

exacerbated by a note from Citrini Research that was passed around getting over 20mm views, saying nothing new but re-highlighting the potential impact on jobs and tech firms in the next few years... “The sole intent of this piece is modeling a scenario that’s been relatively underexplored,” a preface to the article, which was published Sunday, said. “Hopefully, reading this leaves you more prepared for potential left tail risks as AI makes the economy increasingly weird.” Investors, once again, dumped shares of any company seen at the slightest risk of being displaced which lead Goldman's AI-at-Risk basket fell to its lowest since Nov 2016... Since: Bloomberg, zerohedge