Syz the moment

Source: RBC, Bloomberg

Wow. OpenAI not only missed their 2025 revenue target, but they also missed their goal of reaching 1B weekly active users according to WSJ CFO Sarah Friar also reportedly told company leaders that she’s worried the company won’t be able to meet their spending commitments if revenue doesn’t grow faster. “OpenAI missed an internal goal of reaching one billion weekly active users for ChatGPT by the end of last year, according to people familiar with the goals. The company still hasn't announced that milestone, unnerving some investors. It also missed its yearly revenue target for ChatGPT as well after Google's Gemini saw massive growth late last year and ate into OpenAI's market share, the people said. The company has also struggled with defection rates among subscribers, according to people familiar with those figures.” Source: Bloomberg, Negligible Capital, WSJ, B,oomberg

Our EPS forecasts this year and next are close to the top-down strategist consensus. Risks to our forecasts are two-sided, but AI skews those risks to the upside. Source: Neil Sethi

This graphic explores the share of U.S. businesses paying for AI models from different providers, with the data from Ramp. Source: Visual Capitalist

Here's what changes: ➡️ Microsoft will no longer pay a revenue share to OpenAI ➡️OpenAI can now serve its products to customers across any cloud provider ➡️Microsoft continues to participate in OpenAI's growth as a major shareholder and retains a license to OpenAI IP through 2032 ➡️Revenue share payments to Microsoft continue through 2030 Source Reuters / Evan on X

Once a go-to platform for homework help and textbook rentals, it’s now in steep decline—its stock has collapsed nearly 99%, trading under $1 with a market cap around $100 million. Revenue has fallen dramatically from its 2022 peak, signaling a rapid unraveling of its core business. The shift is simple: tools like ChatGPT didn’t just compete with Chegg—they made it obsolete. When students can get instant, high-quality answers for free (or far less), the old model struggles to survive. This isn’t just one company’s story—it’s a turning point where AI disruption became real, fast, and unforgiving. So the real question is: who’s next?

OpenAI's pre-IPO valuation has officially hit a record $1 trillion. Pre-IPO instruments trading onchain, backed 1:1 by SPV exposure on Jupiter, are providing a real-time proxy for the company’s implied IPO valuation. OpenAI’s implied valuation is now up +163% since October 2025. This comes as Anthropic is also nearing a potential $1+ trillion IPO and SpaceX is reportedly targeting $1.7+ trillion. The world has never had this many trillion-dollar private companies... Source: The Kobeissi Letter

His message is clear: Al is no longer just software. It's becoming foundational infrastructure, similar to electricity or the internet. The 5 Layers of the Al Economy 1) Energy - The Power Behind Al Al requires massive electricity to run data centers and train models. This is why nuclear, renewable energy, and power infrastructure are becoming critical to the Al race. 2) Chips - Turning Power Into Compute Al chips convert electricity into computing power. Leaders like NVIDIA, TSMC, and Broadcom. dominate this layer with GPUs, advanced semiconductors, and high-bandwidth memory. 3) Infrastructure - The Al Factories Massive GPU clusters and cloud data centers coordinate tens of thousands of chips to "produce intelligence." Neo-Cloud leaders like Oracle, Nebius, Coreweave and Iren are building the backbone of Al compute. 4) Models - The Al Brain Large models process data and generate intelligence across language, science, robotics, and simulations. Competition is intensifying between companies like Meta, Microsoft, Amazon and Alphabet. 5) Applications - Where Value Is Created The top layer is where Al transforms industries: autonomous driving, Al agents, robotics, enterprise software, and more.