Anthropic just passed OpenAI in quarterly revenue for the first time more than doubling to $11.6B while OpenAI grew 18% to $6.7B.
Anthropic also reached a small operating profit making the gap even more notable as the two leaders scale on very different trajectories. Source: Shay Boloor
Average token costs have collapsed from a high of $2.07/mil tokens on May 28 to $1.02/mil tokens.
Main drivers are price cuts to OpenAI's models and new open-source models from Kimi & DeepSeek (which tend to be several multiples cheaper than closed-source models). Source: Liz Thomas Bloomberg
The Anthropic 20% distressed discount
Source: zerohedge
AI is driving up Treasury Yields (through the crowding out effect)
Source: Barclays, Bloomberg
The AI boom is becoming harder to stop
Alphabet, Amazon, Meta and Microsoft now have $2.4 TRILLION+ in future off-balance-sheet commitments, according to the WSJ. These aren’t hidden debts, but largely long-term commitments for data centers, energy, servers and compute capacity. The key point: a significant part of future AI spending is already locked in. That creates enormous momentum across the AI ecosystem — from Nvidia and Broadcom to memory, data centers, power equipment and utilities. It also accelerates the financialization of AI infrastructure: long-term Big Tech contracts can support debt, private credit and potentially securitization. ✅ Short term: this makes an abrupt AI capex slowdown less likely. ⚠️ Long term: it raises the stakes. If AI revenues fail to justify these massive commitments, overcapacity, falling compute prices and refinancing stress could turn today’s financial accelerator into tomorrow’s vulnerability.
All the AI revenue is fake. Really?
Source: Lance Roberts The Daily Shot
The new AI infrastructure stack
Piper Sandler mapped the new AI infrastructure stack across 8 layers from the power grid all the way to the agent as AI scaling creates bottlenecks across power, cooling, networking, storage, cloud & inference: Source: Shay Boloor Piper Sandler
Anthropic is now projected to IPO by October 31st
Source: Stocktwits, Polymarket
