The Nikkei's 12.4% decline today was the 2nd largest in its history, trailing only the 14.9% fall during the October 1987 crash.
What happened in the year after the 1987 crash? The Nikkei 225 rose 26.5%. Those who embraced panic were rewarded. Source: Charlie Bilello
JPY FX positioning is finally NET LONG (per GS).
The yen is now free to crash again... Source: www.zerohedge.com, Goldman Sachs
Japanese stocks are now up 9.4% overnight.
They are on track for biggest gain since October 2008 Source: Markets & Mayhem, CNBC
The $VIX spiked 65% higher today, the 2nd largest 1-day % increase in history
(note: $VIX data goes back to 1990). Source: Charlie Bilello
Cost of hedging using outright puts nears YTD highs
Source: BofA, Mike Z.
The signal for Market Bottom?
A Follow Through Day (FTD) is a concept developed by William J. O’Neil to identify an important change in general market direction, from a definite downtrend to a new uptrend. Follow Through Days occurs during a market correction when a major index closes significantly higher than the previous day, and on greater volume. It happens Day 4 or later of an attempted rally. Leading up to a FTD, an attempted rally takes place during a downtrend when a major index closes with a gain. The rally attempt continues intact as long as the index doesn’t make a new low. Follow Through Day Characteristics: Characteristics of a follow-through day include an index closing at least 1.7 – 2% higher on increased volume, positive behavior of leading stocks, and improved market action regarding support vs. resistance levels. The most powerful follow-through days often happen Day 4 through Day 7 of an attempted rally. Day 1 of an attempted rally is the first up day after a new low. Source: True market Leader @TmarketL, TraderLion
What does he know about Apple and the stock market that we don't?
Also interesting to see that Warren Buffett and Berkshire Hathaway now own 4% of all T-Bills issued to the public… Buffett has ~$277 Billion. The Fed has $195 Billion. Warren Buffett is now a larger holder of US Treasury Bills than the Federal Reserve. Source: FT, Geiger Capital
Loose policy = Bull market
Even if the BOJ hikes a few more times, real rates will remain deeply negative, a sign of accommodate policy. Chart tracks Japan real rates & market performance ➡️ 2009 -2013: period of high real rates, languishing stock market🔻 ➡️2013-2021: BOJ floors rates, pushes rates negative and fuels stock rally ✅ ➡️ 2021-2024: inflation picks up, real rates drop even further negative, Topix rallies 50% ✅✅ Source: David Ingles, Bloomberg
