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Carnage in hyperscaler bond land:
Investment Grade bond spreads for hyperscalers are exploding every day, as credit investors refuse to fund memory chip purchases any longer. CDS (inverted in red on the chart below) are following. How long will it take for the hyperscaler stocks (in blue) to follow ? Source: zerohedge
Prediction markets sharply lowered the perceived odds of a ground invasion, helping fuel a strong rally in the S&P 500.
Following conciliatory remarks from Iran and President Trump's announcement of a bombing pause earlier this year, investors concluded that neither side had the appetite for a prolonged ground conflict. Those odds have started to climb again, however, even as equities remain relatively resilient. Source: TME, Bloomberg/Authers
Momentum coming back to life:
"The GS High Beta Momentum Pair (GSPRHIMO) is up 9.3%, marking its strongest one day rally in the last five years following a 33% drawdown in the factor. Our sector specific TMT Unconstrained Momentum Pair (GSTMTMOM) is also posting its best day on record (+11.5%) and the GS Broad AI Pair (GSPUARTI) is up 7.3%, its best day since the launch of ChatGPT." - GS Source: Negligible capital
After gaining nearly 11% this year, the S&P 500 paused this week, slipping more than 1%.
But beneath the headline move, a broader rotation is underway, both across sectors and within them. Since early June, AI-driven sectors such as Technology have lost momentum, while cyclical and defensive sectors have steadily outperformed. The shift extends well beyond this week's pullback, suggesting investors are broadening exposure rather than simply reducing overall market risk. Source: Edward Jones
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