One of the biggest fears on Wall Street right now? That the surge in IPOs and equity issuance could trigger a market sell-off.
But history says the opposite. According to Deutsche Bank’s Jim Reid and strategists Binky Chadha & Parag Thatte, issuance waves usually happen because markets are strong — not because they’re about to crash. Companies raise capital when: • Investor demand is high • Earnings momentum is strong • Risk appetite is elevated Since early 2023, US equity issuance has jumped from ~$30bn to ~$120bn per quarter. Mega-IPOs are coming. Yet even the largest deals are only ~0.1% of the S&P 500 market cap. Past issuance cycles? Median returns were: • +8% over 3 months • +20% over 12 months The only major exception: 2008. Bottom line: strong demand is absorbing new supply. This market still feels a lot more like 1999 than 2008. Source: Zerohedge, DB
ProShares issued press release indicating it plans to launch 2x leveraged SpaceX ETF on *same day* as IPO.
Source: Nate Geraci
Active large-cap equity managers are struggling to keep pace with a technology-led market rally, with only 20.5% outperforming the S&P 500 this year.
Source: Bloomberg, The Daily Shot
Breaking: Hyperscaler Bond Issuance Soars
In 4+ months in 2026 it is already more than in 2025, and several times more than the average of previous years. Their Free Cash Flow is dropping to 0. -> They must sell stocks, or slow down AI CAPEX. Source: BraVoCycles Newsletter
Any retail investor who bought Cerebras after the IPO got decimated.
What about SpaceX?
Stock returns since IPO
Source: Stocks World
Asset class total returns since 2011
Winners: Commodities +30.7%; Convertibles +18.7%; Nasdaq 100 +14.9%; US Small Caps +12.8% Losers: IG bonds 0%; Gold 0%; US Total bonds markets 0%; Long duration Treasuries -0.6%; Bitcoin -30.3% Source: Charlie Bilello
Just for reference the market cap of the entire stock markets
• UK: ~$3.94 trillion • France: ~$3.45 trillion • Germany: ~$3.04 trillion Europe is becoming really poor. Source: Michel A.Arouet
