🚨WHAT? US stocks fell after a 0.50% rate cut?🚨
Markets were very mixed after the Fed 'Jumbo' reduction. Big cuts are not usually a good sign BUT... Day 1 is usually not the REAL reaction. We need to wait 2 more trading sessions to see what's really going on. Market performance today: S&P 500 -0.3% Nasdaq -0.3% Russell 2000 +0.0% Dow Jones -0.3% Bitcoin +0.1% Bank Index +0.4% VIX +4%, front month futures VIX -1% Gold -0.6% WTI Crude Oil -1.3% Source. Global Markets Investor
Regardless of what is happening in the world, or who happens to be President, the market finds a way forward.
Source: Peter Mallouk
JP Morgan now owes the MOST derivatives at $57 Trillion
Source: PHIL 4 REAL @StretchItSomeMo
⚠️GLOBAL OIL DEMAND GROWTh FELL TO THE LOWEST SINCE THE COVID CRISIS⚠️
World consumption rose by 800,000 barrels a day in H1 2024, a 1/3 of the growth seen in H1 2023. THE LOWEST rate since demand crashed in 2020... Source: Global Markets Investor
The global bond rally has regained momentum due to econ concerns in the US and weak figures in the Eurozone.
Value of global bonds rose 0.3% this week to $69.29tn, almost a fresh ATH. Source: HolgerZ, Bloomberg
31 Years of Stock Market Returns in one chart offering a different perspective.
The past cannot predict the future. However, studying the past can provide a baseline to help set expectations when it comes to risk and a potential range of outcomes. Here’s a different way to look at returns over various time horizons for the S&P 500 going back to 1993, courtesy of awealthofcommonsense.com This is how to read this chart: 1) Pick a starting year. 2) Then, go down the number of years and the corresponding square will tell you the annualized return from that starting point. For example, the 9-year annual return starting in 1993 was 14% per year. You can see there’s been more green than red since 1993 but there were some painful periods for investors. There were no losses going out 11 years or more but starting in 1999 or 2000 led to a lost decade. You also had multiple time frames with losses going out 2, 3, 4 and 5 years into the future. Five years can feel like an eternity in the stock market. The range of outcomes is also interesting to consider. - The 10 year annual returns ranged from -1% to 17%. Over 15 years there was a high of 14% and a low of 4%. - On a 5 year time horizon the range was -2% to 29% annualized. Bottom-line: Your experience in the stock market can vary drastically depending on your timing. The good news is that the long term removes a lot of variation from the equation. Look at the returns in the bottom left — they’re all in a fairly tight range. The 31-year annual return from 1993 through 2023 was around 10% per year, right at the long-term averages. Not bad. Link to full article: https://lnkd.in/eutSyyYQ Source: Ben Carlson @awealthofcs
Another Japanese Yen market shock is coming warns T. Rowe Price 🚨
Source: Barchart
Asset class returns as of end of August and since 2011
Source: Charlie Bilello
