Syz the moment

After an early post-Nvidia rebound, markets reversed sharply on Thursday, and the demand for hedges became obvious. Goldman reported “a massive bid for puts,” with option activity staying extremely elevated. As the chart shows, total put volume hit its third-highest level of the year, while overall option volume climbed to one of the highest readings on record. The scramble for downside protection has pushed normalized put/call skew to one of its highest levels in the past three years. Another way to illustrate the sheer surge in activity: average daily trading volume in SPX options has now reached $3.5 trillion. That’s an all-time high—and, remarkably, larger than the entire market capitalization of the Russell 2000 (RTY). Source: zerohedge

Today the S&P 500 opened up +1.4%… and finished deep in the RED (-1.5%). That move has happened only twice in modern history: Apr 7, 2020 — Post-COVID crash volatility Apr 8, 2025 — Post-Liberation Day shock Today just became the third. So what actually drove the reversal? Goldman’s trading desk points to a perfect storm: 🔥 1) NVDA -7% fade Yes, they beat. Yes, they raised. But the “clear all” bull case didn’t show up. ⚠️ 2) Private credit risk can’t be brushed aside Fed’s Cook literally flagged “potential asset valuation vulnerabilities.” 📉 3) September NFP = fine… but not decisive December rate-cut odds barely nudged higher (now ~35%). 💥 4) Crypto cracked below the $90K psychological line 📊 5) CTA supply hit the gas Positioning was crowded long… and we just crossed short-term triggers. Medium-term supply looms at 6456. 🐻 6) Shorts are waking back up 🌏 7) Weak global price action SK Hynix, SoftBank… not helping. 💧 8) Liquidity? Nearly nonexistent Top-of-book S&P liquidity ~$5mm vs ~$11mm YTD average. 📈 9) ETF-driven market ETFs were 41% of the tape today (YTD avg: 28%). When passive flows dominate, macro > fundamentals. Here’s the kicker: NVDA’s results were good. Objectively good. But as Goldman’s John Flood put it: 👉 “When really good news isn’t rewarded, that’s usually a bad sign.” So the real question: Is the market pricing in a Fed policy mistake? (No December cut → forced tightening → equity stress?) Or is this the market’s way of dragging the hawks back to the dovish table? Either way… Volatility is back. And the macro tape is driving the bus. 📡 Stay tuned. Source: zerohedge

Source: zerohedge

We’re talking $3.1 TRILLION worth of options contracts expiring all at once. Source: StockMarket.news

April 7: Tom Lee issues apology to investors Signs of time? 🤔 Source: The Market Stats @TheMarketStats

He is planning something massive on Nov 25th...

The Hindenburg Omen, an indicator that correctly detected the 1987 and 2008 stock market crashes, has been triggered for the 5th time over the last month 👻😱 ➡️ What is a Hindenburg Open? The Hindenburg Omen is a technical stock-market indicator that attempts to predict increased probability of a market crash. It triggers when several conditions occur at the same time on a stock exchange (usually the NYSE), such as: A high number of new 52-week highs and 52-week lows on the same day A rising 50-day moving average Worsening market breadth Other internal market divergences It’s named after the Hindenburg disaster because it is meant to signal potential “market instability.” Source: Barchart

"America’s surging stockmarket has been driven, most of all, by old investors.... Americans aged 70 and above now own 39% of all stocks and mutual funds (which mostly invest in equities), almost twice as much as was common from 1989 to 2009. The trend reflects a shift in outlook. Elderly Americans’ risk tolerance has shot up."