Markets do not like interest rate uncertainty: Stocks and long-term bonds have declined for 5-straight weeks, the longest streak in at least 13 months.
During this period, the S&P 500 ETF, $SPY, has fallen 4.2% to the lowest since November 6th, a day after the Presidential election. At the same time, the popular bond tracking ETF, $TLT, has dropped 9.1% to the lowest since May 2024. Source: The Kobeissi Letter, Bloomberg
It’s Shorts Weather
A basket of 50 heavily-shorted stocks tracked by Goldman Sachs with market caps of at least $1 billion apiece is down 3.2% on the day as of 1:30 p.m. ET, undoing what had been a very strong start to the year. source : gs, bloomberg
BREAKING: Prediction markets now see inflation rising as high as 4.1% in 2025.
Heading into 2025, expectations showed the inflation rate peaking at 3.6% in 2025. Prediction markets are saying inflation is back. Source: The Kobeissi Letter
U.S. Dollar vs. World Currencies in 2024
Source: Barchart, Visual Capitalist, Voronoi
Howard Marks, Co-Chairman of Oaktree Capital and one of the world's most respected value investors, is cautioning about froth in the market and believes we are due for either:
1) a large correction in the market OR 2) 10-year returns of between +2 and -2% Source: Barchart
US CORPORATE INSIDERS BUYING HAS RARELY BEEN SO LOW
US executives' buys of their companies stocks dropped to near the lowest on record. This coincides with insiders selling the most stocks ever. Are they saying that stocks are expensive? Source: Sentimentrader and Bloomberg data thru Global Markets Investor
A brief history of asset bubbles.
Source: @thedailyshot, Lance Roberts @LanceRoberts
The $VIX spiked 74% higher yesterday, the 2nd biggest 1-day % increase in history
Volatility is back. Source Charlie Bilello
