U.S. Margin Debt Hits Record $1.3 Trillion in April 2026
U.S. margin debt climbed to a record $1.3 trillion in April 2026, marking a 53% increase from a year earlier. The sharp rise reflects growing investor risk appetite and increased leverage amid surging equity valuations and strong stock market momentum. Historically, rapid expansions in margin borrowing have coincided with periods of elevated market optimism and heightened speculative activity. Source: Econovis
Year-to-date performance of the main asset classes
Source: Finviz
Since the start of the war, gold has been negatively correlated to oil. Oil up, gold down. Why? Because the marginal gold buyer is not the West, it is EM Asia and Turkey.
Higher oil prices crush import-dependent economies like India: Oil ↑ → Growth ↓ → Currency ↓ → Import costs ↑ → Gold demand ↓. That’s why gold has been weak despite geopolitical chaos. India is curbing gold imports to defend the Rupee. Turkey already burned reserves. China is temporarily balancing the system by cutting crude imports. The real story isn’t “gold vs fear.” It’s commodities, FX, and EM liquidity transmission. Mental flexibility > rigid macro views. Source: Alexander Stahel on X Bloomberg
We've officially reached the "brutal" stage in the global bond market sell-off. The 10y10y forward yield (red) is making new highs all over the place.
Japan's 10y10y forward has risen 30 basis points in just a few days. Even Swiss 10y10y forward is rising. Source: Robin Brooks
Cross asset returns as of 15/5/2026
Source: Charlie Bilello
The dispersion of public market returns between sellers and buyers of AI.
Note however it feels weird to find Alphabet $GOOGL in the "loser" camp as the stock is up 130%+ over the last 12 months. Some buyers of product shortage are able to perform well as long as investors see clear evidence that its AI investments are turning into real revenue and profit growth — not just hype. Alphabet's cloud computing business has been delivering much better than expectations. Source: Tanay Jaipuria
India hikes bullion import duties as the world’s second-largest gold market faces a declining rupee.
India has increased import duties on gold and silver from 6% to 15% (including basic customs duty and a 5% Agriculture Infrastructure Cess), significantly raising domestic prices by roughly ₹12–13 lakh per kg for gold and ₹24,000–25,000 per kg for silver. The move is aimed at curbing a sharply rising import bill, with gold imports reaching a record $71.98 billion in FY26 and silver imports surging 162%, amid broader macro pressures such as higher crude prices, a weaker rupee, and geopolitical uncertainty. Authorities expect a potential 15–20% reduction in imports, saving $10–15 billion in foreign exchange outflows, though past patterns suggest possible offsets through smuggling, unofficial premiums, and higher recycling. The policy may also be part of a broader effort to shift household wealth away from physical gold holdings toward financial assets, but it remains unclear whether this is a temporary measure or a structural shift. Source: CR
The Roundhill Memory ETF $DRAM is up 98% since launching 5 weeks ago, easily the best perf ETF out of the gate (while also being the fastest growing ETF- at least to $6.5b).
Source: Bloomberg, Eric Balchunas
