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BREAKING: The dollar dropped and stocks surge after the Washington Post reported that Donald Trump’s aides are exploring tariffs that would apply to every country, but only cover critical imports
See the kink to our 10 surprises 2025 (surprise #1: Trump 2.1 "(...) What if concerns over the inflationary effects of tariffs prompt him to pivot, adopting a more conciliatory approach with trading partners—a shift from Trump 2.0 to Trump 2.1): https://lnkd.in/eKXRsc58 Source: MenthorQ, Bloomberg
BREAKING: The Canadian dollar is flying after reports that Prime Minister Trudeau is to announce resignation as early as Monday
Source: Reuters, Bloomberg
USDollar is now the most overvalued in history according to Bank of America.
Bank of America uses a "behavioral equilibrium exchange model (BEER)", an economic concept used to estimate the equilibrium exchange rate of a currency based on fundamental macroeconomic factors and behavioral relationships. BEER models derive the equilibrium exchange rate from observable economic fundamentals such as Terms of trade, Productivity differentials, Net foreign assets, Interest rate differentials and Trade balances Source: Barchart
This is EM currency performance versus the Dollar in 2024. The 3 worst performers are: (i) Argentina's Peso; (ii) Brazil's Real; (iii) Russia's Ruble.
Source: Bloomberg, Robin Brooks
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