Excellent tweet by Otavio (Tavi) Costa on how money debasement looks like and why the BoJ is "trapped” in one chart.
"Japan is experiencing increasing inflation expectations alongside a continuous devaluation of the yen, exhibiting an almost perfectly negative correlation. This reflects the dilemma of an economy burdened by excessive debt, necessitating continuous accommodative monetary policies in the face of structural inflationary pressures. While this might be more pronounced in Japan, this trend is reflective of a global fiat debasement phenomenon". Source: Crescat Capital, Tavi Costa
The YEN is COLLAPSING and Abenomics has taught us some lessons:
After years of money printing, Yen now trades to 155 against USD: -32% against USD since 2021, -50% since 2012 The Bank of Japan has been buying over half of the national debt with freshly created yen, plus a bunch of other securities. But there is a price to pay after all: the destruction of the currency: Source Wolfstreet
If technical analysis works on this chart, the yen might see considerable more weakness againt dollar in the coming weeks...
Source: Ole S Hansen
Bearish Bets against the Japanese Yen reach highest level in 17 years
Source: Barchart, Bloomberg
SNB cut rates against market expectations
Swiss National Bank cut the policy rate by 25 BPS to 1.50%. USDCHF and EURCHF both jumped by more than one figure to 0.8970 and 0.9780 respectively. Market was only pricing in a 35% probability of this cut.
FED holds benchmark rate, May cut remains unlikely
The US Federal reserve holds benchmark rate in 5.25-5.5% target range. Jerome Powell prepared remarks and Q&A answers were more dovish than during the January meeting. FOMC median forecast remains at 75 BPS rate cuts for 2024, but the forecast increased from 3.6% to 3.9% in 2025.
Gold reacted to Powell's dovish tone by jumping to a new record high and breaking the 2200 level.
Source: Bloomberg
Nice one by Barclays...
The CNY's share of cross-border payments has overtaken the USD Source: Ronnie Stoeferle, Barclays, Bloomberg
Japan | Yen Gains With Bank Stocks as Wages, BOJ Remarks Boost Hike Bets – Bloomberg
The yen climbed to a one-month high and Japanese bank shares rose after wage data and a Bank of Japan board member’s remarks bolstered speculation the authority will raise interest rates this month. Japanese government bonds extended their drop as data from an auction of 30-year debt indicated weak investor demand for long-maturity securities ahead of the expected BOJ shift. Policy-sensitive two-year notes also fell, with their yield climbing to 0.195%, the highest level since 2011.
