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4 Mar 2024

High global cost of capital hurts weak global balance sheets

Pakistan, Nigeria, Ethiopia, Egypt, DRC, Iran, Türkiye, Argentina account for 12% of world population (>1bn people) and they are all hit by inflation rates >30% (Argentina 250%, Türkiye 60%, DRC 50%), interest rates >20% & pressure of currencies. Source: BofA

1 Mar 2024

NEW: Bitcoin just passed the Russian ruble and is now the 14th largest currency in the world 🔥

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19 Feb 2024

Pound Bulls Stand Their Ground

source: bloomberg

12 Feb 2024

The U.S. Dollar is currently used in more than 48% of international payment transactions, the highest level in more than a decade.

USD isn’t going away anytime soon 🇺🇸. Source: Barchart, Macrobond

12 Feb 2024

The negative correlation between the us dollar with stocks (and other risk assets) has been strong for quite some time.

Meanwhile, US Dollar Index Futures are up every single week this year. Has this relationship now changed, or is the unwind about to come? Source: JC Parets

31 Jan 2024

Egypt: The currency is in free-fall

Black market rate: 1 dollar = 70 pounds Official rate: 1 dollar = 30.9 pounds The pounds has weakened by nearly 24% in the market in 2024. Egyptian billionaire Naguib Sawiris criticized delays in enacting a long-awaited devaluation of the pound, suggesting authorities match the spiraling black market rate to end the nation’s chronic foreign-currency shortage. Postponing reforms is “a disaster that will increase the extent of the critical situation we are in,” Sawiris said in an Arabic-language post on social media platform X. Egypt’s pound has plunged on the parallel market to 68-70 per dollar in recent days, leaving it more than 50% weaker than the official rate of about 30.9. Source: Bloomberg, Ziad M Daoud

30 Jan 2024

🇯🇵 Hedge Funds, Asset Managers Take Opposite Yen Bets Amid BOJ Talk - Bloomberg, C.Barraud

Hedge funds and asset managers were split on their yen views as the Bank of Japan laid the ground for an end to its negative-rate policy. Leveraged funds cut net yen shorts to the lowest level since February 2023 in the seven days ended Jan. 23 when BOJ announced its last policy decision, according to a report from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. In contrast, asset managers, such as pension funds and insurance companies, boosted net shorts by the most since May when the investors switched to shorts from longs.

25 Jan 2024

German manufacturing had been in crisis well before Russia invaded Ukraine

Putin's invasion only made this structural decline worse. Europe has an easy offset to this: a weaker currency. Euro needs to fall well below parity to offset the crisis in European manufacturing... Source: Robin Brooks

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