Hard landing - Energy leads. Soft landing - energy lags. What will be the message from Mr Market?
Source chart: 3Fourteen, Warren Pies
European gas spikes on market jitters over LNG strike risk
European natural gas futures spiked for the second time in less than a week, with market tensions running high over the possibility of strikes in Australia that could severely tighten the global market.
Source: Bloomberg
Amazon is the largest corporate purchaser of clean energy in 2022 at 12,415MW
They are closely followed by other large tech companies such as Meta, Google, and Microsoft. Source: Genuine Impact
In a stunning move, reminiscent of the first few months of Putin's invasion of Ukraine, European NatGas prices exploded a stunning 40% higher YESTERDAY ALONE
This comes as the possibility of worker strikes at some LNG plants in Australia threatens global supply..... This is the biggest daily increase since March 2022. Citigroup estimates EU natural gas prices could double. Meanwhile, oil hit 9 months high and coal is rising as well. The surge of energy prices will make the job of central-bankers more difficult. Source: The Kobeissi Letter, ICE, Bloomberg
Energy continues performing very well. The $XLE (energy stocks etf) is breaking above big levels, and the 50 day is crossing the 100 day...while the crowd gave up on energy longs at recent lows
Source: TME
Last week was a painful one for multi-assets portfolios: it was the worst week in four for Treasuries, the worst for commodities since June and the worst for stocks since March
Over the week, the 2s10s curve steepened by 19 bps, a 2.3 standard deviation move. As a consequence, the sectors that slid the most were those that are most exposed to bond yields, ie the long-duration stocks (Communications & Tech despite earnings beats by Apple and Amazon but also Utilities). Energy gained as Saudi Arabia said it would extend production cuts to prop up prices. Source: Bloomberg, J-C Gand.
Energy is the least expensive sector in the S&P 500 but generates the most cash.
Perhaps this explains why Warren Buffett continues to increase his position in Occidental Petroleum - source; Barchart, Bloomberg
