Europe is the energy sucker.
Chart shows SX5E vs oil (inverted). This does not mean SX5E must crash to close the gap, but it shows you clearly just how vulnerable Europe is. Source: The Market Ear
From Yardeni:
“.. in our short-war scenario, oil prices should fall in the coming weeks after a ceasefire .. boosting US consumer spending and benefiting global economies .. The weekend’s Middle East developments make us even more confident in our Roaring 2020s scenario.”
🚨 TTF +25% to ~€40/MWh Biggest day jump since Aug 2023. 8 month high.
Why? Hormuz risk = 15% of global LNG flows exposed, mainly Qatari cargoes. Europe replaced Russian pipeline gas with seaborne LNG. Now that LNG must pass the Gulf. Starting point isn’t comfortable: • EU storage ~31% vs ~40% last year • Germany ~20% • France ~21% Add: • Large speculative shorts • Forced short covering • Front-month panic buying If Qatari LNG is materially disrupted for weeks, analysts see €80–100/MWh possible. Source: Jack Prandelli
CHART OF THE DAY: European Gas prices are now up 45% after the Qatari LNG production halts
Using European benchmark TTF as a proxy, here's the price chart of the last few years. Source: Javier Blas, Bloomberg
Oil is pushing the massive trend line. We haven't closed here since August.
Source: TME
In Germany, gas storage levels have fallen below 24%
a record low for this time of year. Typically, storage levels average around 50.7% at this point. At 23.95%, inventories are also at their lowest level since May 2018. Source: Bloomberg, HolgerZ
For the first time in nearly five years, total US oil production is declining on a year-over-year basis.
After a roughly 30% drop in active rigs over the past three years, improved drilling technology has not been enough to compensate for reduced capital investment, proving that fundamentals ultimately prevail. Despite this tightening supply, oil remains one of the most heavily shorted assets in over a decade, raising the question of whether prices could be poised for an upward move. Source chart: Tavi Costa
From Ghost Industry to National Priority
This White House statement on critical minerals explicitly listed uranium as a critical mineral, and it looks like they’re actually considering a price floor guarantee. The US used to be a powerhouse in uranium, but the industry is basically a ghost of its former self now. The government seems to be stepping up and back producers with some real institutional support. Things like strategic stockpiling or a price floor could be a massive game-changer. Between the skyrocketing power demand and energy security needs, support seems to be coming. Source: JH @CRUDEOIL231
