It has been our thesis for a while that a big uranium SHORTAGE is coming in this decade
Uranium miners are likely to benefit from this trend and have been enjoying a strong run up over the last few months. Yet uranium miners ($URA $etf) have been diverging from Uranium spot price recently. One fundamental explanation for this is that the Uranium "large caps" which are over-represented in the URA ETF have long-term contracts which means there are not benefiting to a full extent from recent Uranium spot price. Source chart: Game of trades
The bull market none is talking about. Uranium prices are surging as nuclear is seen as one of the only "clean" energy source to move away from fossil fuels
Source chart: (((The Daily Shot)))
It looks like Germany is in for high electricity prices for quite some time...
Source: HolgerZ, Bloomberg
What powered the world in 2022?
Coal still leads the charge when it comes to electricity, representing 35% of global power generation, followed by natural gas at 23% and hydroelectric at 15%. Source: Elements, Visual Capitalist
Bank of America research:
"Industry research suggests that, after accounting for efficiency, storage needs, the cost of transmission, and other broad system costs, nuclear power plants are one of the least expensive sources of energy." Source: BofA Global Research, Gustavo Philippsen Fuhr
Mapped: Asia’s Biggest Sources of Electricity by Country
By Elements / Visual Capitalist
JP MORGAN is making a big bullish call on oil and energy stocks.
The largest US bank expects the global oil deficit hitting a record 7mmb/d in 2030, a staggering shortfall which would require prices to rise higher... much higher. In a nutshell: JPM is reiterating their $80/bbl LT target and their view framed in Supercycle IV that the upside risk to oil is $150/bbl over the near to medium term term and $100/bbl LT. The primary drivers of their structural thesis are : 1) higher for longer rates tempering the flow of capital into new supply, 2) higher cost of equity driving elevated Cash Breakevens of >$75/bbl Brent (post buybacks) as companies return structurally more cash to shareholders, in turn, pushing the marginal cost of oil higher, 3) Institutional and policy led pressures driving an accelerated transition away from hydrocarbons and peak demand fears. Taken together, their corollary is a self-reinforcing ‘higher-for-longer’ energy macro outlook as the industry struggles to justify large investments beyond 2030. Consequently, they forecast a 1.1mbd S/D gap in 2025 widening to 7.1mbd in 2030 driven by both a robust demand outlook and limited supply sources.
Long Nuclear short Windmills?
Source: Steno Research & Macrobond
