BREAKING: A record 447,000 Americans are now working 2 full-time jobs, per Joe Consorti
Source: Barchart, Bloomberg
Bank credit has now entered contraction territory. After witnessing one of sharpest declines on record
Since 1974, this has only happened ONCE: → The Financial Crisis. Back then, this metric reached levels as low as -5%. At the current rate, the risk of a credit event is on the rise. Source: Game of trades
Prices paid to US producers rose by more than forecast in September
The PPI for final demand advanced 0.5% from a month earlier, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The cost of gasoline increased 5.4% The biggest driver of today's PPI beat: a near record surge in PPI Deposit Services. In other words high rates (and inflation) lead to higher rates (and inflation) Source: www.zerohedge.com
In the last 8 decades, savings as a percentage of national income has ONLY contracted three times:
2008 - Great Recession. 2020 - Covid Pandemic Crash. 2023 - The Everything Bubble. Source: Whalewire
Looking at the September US payroll numbers through another lens
Unadjusted total payrolls rose by 585K and yet private payrolls dropped by 399K. All of the unadjusted jobs in September came from the government, which added a whopping 984K jobs (mostly teachers). What if all the mess in Washington (shutdowns, political gridlock in Congress, etc.) and rising cost of debt put a cap on the fiscal support? Where are the jobs going to come from? Source: www.zerohedge.com, Bloomberg
Is ADP the start of something big or an anomaly, knowledge_vital asks as ADP report for September saw a huge drop in new jobs to just 89k vs. 150k forecast, & down from +180k in Aug
The 89k is the softest number since Jan 2021. Large comps drove downside, they shed 83k jobs in September. Souce: HolgerZ, Bloomberg
In case you missed it:
The past few months have brought a very significant tightening of US financial conditions; the Goldman Sachs Financial Conditions Index is now at the most restrictive point since November 2022. (HT GS) Source: HolgerZ, Bloomberg
In case you missed it...
The credit default swap (CDS) prices for the US rose sharply during the small banks crisis back in spring, and then went down as the crisis subsided quickly. These prices have been rising steadily since early summer. US CDS are now above Spain, which is considered a higher risk country from a sovereign credit risk perspective. Source: Bloomberg
