Two clear indications yesterday that the US economy is (finally) slowing down:
1) ISM Manufacturing New Orders rolling back over to 45.4 vs survey of 49.4; 2) Atlanta Q2 GDPNow dropped to 1.8% from 2.7% last week. And down from 4.2% in mid May... Source: Bloomberg, AtlantaFed
Germany has the shortest average working hours of any advanced economy, with the annual figure falling 30% in the past 50 years and now a quarter below US levels, per FT.
Source: unusual_whales, FT
At 8.17 U.S. dollars, Switzerland has the most expensive Big Macs in the world, according to the January 2024 Big Mac index.
Concurrently the cost of a Big Mac was 5.69 dollars in the U.S., and 5.87 U.S. dollars in the Euro area. What is the Big Mac index? The Big Mac index, published by The Economist, is a novel way of measuring whether the market exchange rates for different countries’ currencies are overvalued or undervalued. It does this by measuring each currency against a common standard – the Big Mac hamburger sold by McDonald’s restaurants all over the world. Twice a year the Economist converts the average national price of a Big Mac into U.S. dollars using the exchange rate at that point in time. As a Big Mac is a completely standardized product across the world, the argument goes that it should have the same relative cost in every country. Differences in the cost of a Big Mac expressed as U.S. dollars therefore reflect differences in the purchasing power of each currency. Source: Tavi Costa, Crescat Capital, Statista, The Economist
Japan currently owns the highest share of public debt outstanding.
They will most likely move even higher... and everybody else will follow. There is no other option left. This chart also means there is still a lot of firepower for the Fed to keep treasuries interest rates under control if needed. Source: Michel A.Arouet
US Q1 GDP growth was slower on soft consumer spending.
The US economy expanded at 1.3% pace versus initial estimate of 1.6%. Consumer spending was lower on outlays for goods like autos. Source: Bloomberg, HolgerZ
Foodflation! Prices at McDonald's $MCD have doubled over the last decade.
Source: Barchart
Shocking stat of the day: US net interest payments as a share of GDP are set to reach 3.9% by 2034, the highest in history.
This exceeds the all-time record percentage seen in the 1990s as well as World War II levels. Net interest is expected to account for 75% of the budget deficit increase over the next decade, according to the CBO. All as interest expense has already DOUBLED in just 3 years and now costs the US ~$2 billion per day. The worst part? This project assumes no recession hits within the next 10 years. What happens if we enter a recession? Source: The Kobeissi Letter
The US money supply is back in line with the size of the economy, after the excesses of the pandemic period
Time for the Fed to take its foot off the brake pedal regarding liquidity Source: US Federal Reserve, BEA
