ADP Yesterday -- "We use social security numbers and we process paychecks. Private sector lost -33,000 jobs in June."
NFP Today -- "You're wrong! We do phone survey. Sometimes they answer, sometimes they don't. We show private sector created +74,000 jobs in June." Source: Jaguar Analytics
▶️ A "pro-growth" job report ‼️stocks surged and bonds sold off after the US economy blew past expectations, adding 147,000 jobs in June (vs 106k expected).
▶️The unemployment rate fell to 4.1% from 4.2% as the private-sector survey showed 93,000 new jobs created, and labor force participation rate dipped slightly to 62.3%, suggesting fewer people are actively working or looking for work. ▶️Meanwhile, wage growth came in softer than expected, with average hourly earnings rising 3.7% year-over-year. Source: HolgerZ, Bloomberg
Beijing Braces for US Trade Deals That Aim to Shut Out China - Bloomberg
The US-Vietnam trade deal is aimed at isolating China primarily by targeting the use of Chinese components in goods exported from Vietnam to the US. The deal imposes a tiered tariff system where Vietnamese exports containing Chinese inputs face higher tariffs—20% generally, and up to 40% on goods suspected of being transshipped from China through Vietnam with minimal processing. This is designed to prevent Chinese products from bypassing US tariffs by routing them through Vietnam, a practice that increased after earlier US-China trade tensions led companies to relocate production to Vietnam. The US strategy behind this deal is part of a broader effort to reshape global supply chains into "trusted" networks that exclude Chinese firms and reduce China's role in international trade. The Trump administration has pushed trading partners like Vietnam to cut back on imports from China and control their supply chains more tightly to avoid facilitating Chinese goods entering the US market indirectly.
Huge ADP miss… the trend is clear.
*ADP PRIVATE PAYROLLS: -33K vs 98K exp. First negative print since March 2023. Private sector hiring unexpectedly contracted in June, payrolls processing firm ADP said Wednesday, in a possible sign that the economy may not be as sturdy as investors believe as they bid the S&P 500 back up to record territory to end the month. Private payrolls lost 33,000 jobs in June, the ADP report showed, the first decrease since March 2023. Economists polled by Dow Jones forecast an increase of 100,000 for the month. The May job growth figure was revised even lower to just 29,000 jobs added from 37,000. To be sure, the ADP report has a spotty track record on predicting the subsequent government jobs report, which investors tend to weigh more heavily. May’s soft ADP data ended up differing significantly from the monthly jobs report figures that came later in the week. Source: Zerohedge, Bloomberg, CNBC
The bill’s passage through Congress’s upper chamber now leaves its fate in the hands of the House of Representatives, where it could still face considerable opposition
Donald Trump’s landmark tax and spending legislation moved a step closer to becoming law on Tuesday after the US Senate ended days of haggling and narrowly passed the so-called big, beautiful bill. The bill’s passage through Congress’s upper chamber now leaves its fate in the hands of the House of Representatives, where it could still face considerable opposition ahead of a looming July 4 deadline. The Senate approved the sweeping legislation, 51-50, after vice-president JD Vance cast the tiebreaking vote. The president celebrated the legislation’s progress and turned up the pressure on the House to approve it by the end of the week. He urged Republicans in the lower chamber to ignore “GRANDSTANDERS” and do “the right thing, which is sending this Bill to my desk” to be signed into law. Source: FT
Huge ADP miss… the trend is clear.
*ADP PRIVATE PAYROLLS: -33K vs 98K exp. First negative print since March 2023. Private sector hiring unexpectedly contracted in June, payrolls processing firm ADP said Wednesday, in a possible sign that the economy may not be as sturdy as investors believe as they bid the S&P 500 back up to record territory to end the month. Private payrolls lost 33,000 jobs in June, the ADP report showed, the first decrease since March 2023. Economists polled by Dow Jones forecast an increase of 100,000 for the month. The May job growth figure was revised even lower to just 29,000 jobs added from 37,000. To be sure, the ADP report has a spotty track record on predicting the subsequent government jobs report, which investors tend to weigh more heavily. May’s soft ADP data ended up differing significantly from the monthly jobs report figures that came later in the week. Source: Zerohedge, Bloomberg, CNBC
⚠️US money supply is re-surging:
US M2 money supply jumped 4.5% year-over-year in May, to a record $21.94 TRILLION. This has now surpassed the March 2022 record of $21.86 trillion For perspective, the 2000-2025 annual growth rate has been 6.3%. Chart @econovisuals thru Global Markets Investor
In May, US personal income dropped by 0.4%, the first month-over-month decline in almost 4 years.
Source: Steven Rattner @SteveRattner
