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⚠️German economic outlooks remains DIRE:
In 2024 the world's 3rd largest economy FELL by 0.2% following a 0.3% decline in 2023. This is the 2nd time since 1950 that GDP contracted for 2 years in a row. German IFO Economic Research Institute expects just 0.2% growth in 2025. Source. Global Markets Investor
Americans expect credit application REJECTIONS at a higher rate than ever:
The perceived likelihood of credit application rejections: Auto loan: 34%, the highest on record Mortgage: 48%, the highest on record Credit card: 32%, the 3rd-highest ever Card limit increase: 39% Source: Global Market Investors, Bloomberg
Swiss Government Lowers Growth Forecasts Ahead of SNB Decision
The Swiss government has trimmed its economic growth outlook for 2025 and 2026, citing global trade tensions. SECO now expects: 📉 2025 GDP: 1.4% (previously 1.5%) 📉 2026 GDP: 1.6% (previously 1.7%) While growth remains below the long-term average of 1.8%, Switzerland is still expected to avoid a recession. This adjustment comes just before the Swiss National Bank’s policy decision on Thursday—a key event to watch. source : reuters
Riskier credit markets are starting to respond more significantly to the dislocation in US equity markets
Spreads on high-yield bonds rose the most since August yesterday. They're still relatively low on a historical basis, but the trajectory is catching many people's attention. Source: Lisa Abramowicz @lisaabramowicz1, Bloomberg
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