US Economic Surprises are starting to roll out.
See below yesterday macro numbers - majority of them missed estimates (hard & soft data) *ADP Payrolls: Miss 🔴 *S&P Services PMI: Miss 🔴 *ISM Services PMI: Miss 🔴 *ISM Services Employment: Miss 🔴 *Factory Orders: Miss 🔴 Source: Jessie Cohen
GLOBAL DEBT HIT A NEW RECORD
Global debt rose by over $12 trillion in Q1-Q3 and hit a MASSIVE $322.9 trillion, a new all-time high. Over the last 2 decades, world's debt has TRIPLED. Debt-to-GDP fell to 326%, ~30 percentage points below 2021 record but remains above 2019. Source: Global Markets Investor @GlobalMktObserv
GS: Chart of the Week
Global MAP (economic) Surprise Index Has Fallen Sharply, Driven by Weak Euro Area PMIs and a Plummet in US New Home Sales Source: Mike Zaccardi, CFA, CMT @MikeZaccardi, GS
⚠️US QUITS RATE IS FALLING QUICKLY⚠️
The quits rate, the % of workers voluntarily exiting their jobs fell to 1.9% in September, the lowest since June 2020. Americans are increasingly depending on their current jobs as the hiring pace has declined. Data for October is due today. Source: Global Markets Investor
Office CMBS Delinquency Rate Spikes to 10.4%, Just Below Worst of Financial Crisis Meltdown. Fastest 2-Year Spike Ever.
Office-to-residential conversions are growing, but are minuscule because not many towers are suitable for conversion. Source: www,wolfstreet.com, Wolf Richter
Citi U.S. Economic Surprise Index is starting to roll over again
Source: Bloomberg
US Fed officials see interest rate cuts ahead, but only ‘gradually,’ meeting minutes show - CNBC
Federal Reserve officials expressed confidence that inflation is easing and the labor market is strong, allowing for further interest rate cuts albeit at a gradual pace, according to minutes from the November meeting released Tuesday. The meeting summary contained multiple statements indicating that officials are comfortable with the pace of inflation, even though by most measures it remains above the Fed’s 2% goal. With that in mind, and with conviction that the jobs picture is still fairly solid, Federal Open Market Committee members indicated that further rate cuts likely will happen, though they did not specify when and to what degree.
BREAKING: October PCE inflation, the Fed's preferred inflation measure, RISES to 2.3%, in-line with expectations of 2.3%.
Core PCE inflation RISES, to 2.8%, in-line with expectations of 2.8%. The Fed's preferred measure of inflation hit its highest reading since April. Core CPI, PPI, and PCE are all back on the rise. Source: Charlie Bilello
