Is ADP the start of something big or an anomaly, knowledge_vital asks as ADP report for September saw a huge drop in new jobs to just 89k vs. 150k forecast, & down from +180k in Aug
The 89k is the softest number since Jan 2021. Large comps drove downside, they shed 83k jobs in September. Souce: HolgerZ, Bloomberg
In case you missed it:
The past few months have brought a very significant tightening of US financial conditions; the Goldman Sachs Financial Conditions Index is now at the most restrictive point since November 2022. (HT GS) Source: HolgerZ, Bloomberg
In case you missed it...
The credit default swap (CDS) prices for the US rose sharply during the small banks crisis back in spring, and then went down as the crisis subsided quickly. These prices have been rising steadily since early summer. US CDS are now above Spain, which is considered a higher risk country from a sovereign credit risk perspective. Source: Bloomberg
One key development of the week (beyond brent hitting $90) has been stronger than expected macroeconomic data - e.g the ISM services (see data table below from Markets & Mayhem)
Indeed what we are seeing in the last ISM Services PMI reading may not be the best news for the inflation situation: 1) New orders growing faster 2) Employment growing faster (from being nearly flat m/m) 3) Prices rising faster And the market reaction - stocks pulling back - means that good macro news is bad news for the market again. Indeed, while a growing economy supports rising corporate profits (which is a positive), a too strong economy would imply a more hawkish FED than it is currently anticipated by the market.
European stocks are becoming very disconnected from macroeconomic data
Source: Cheddar Flow, Bloomberg
6 Potential Problems for China’s Economy
Source: Barchart
Total Global Debt is now estimated to be over $300 Trillion and has been rising exponentially since 1971
Source: TheBTCTherapist
The percentage of US workers quitting their jobs has moved down to 2.3%, the fewest since January 2021
The 1.5 job openings per unemployed person in the US is lowest since September 2021. Labor market continues to loosen... Source: Charlie Bilello
