Global manufacturing is contracting:
The Global Manufacturing PMI index fell to 48.8 points in September, down from 49.6 in August, marking the 3rd straight monthly contraction. 4 of the 5 index components shrunk last month including output, new orders, employment, and stocks of purchases. Furthermore, new export orders declined at the fastest rate in 11 months. This implies that global trade volumes could be decreasing now by 3-4% year-over-year. Meanwhile, manufacturers' business optimism fell to a 22-month low, suggesting a grim outlook for the next few months. Source: JP Morgan, The Kobeissi Letter
BREAKING: The number of people working MULTIPLE jobs in the US hit 8.66 million in September, a new record.
This is ~300,000 above the peak seen before the pandemic and ~600,000 above the 2008 peak. Furthermore, the number of part-time jobs has jumped by ~3 million over the last 3 years to a near-record 28.2 million. Concerningly, full-time employment has declined by 1 million since November 2023. Multiple jobholders have been rapidly rising over the last few years as Americans are fighting record-high prices. Millions of Americans are working multiple jobs to afford basic necessities. Source: The Kobeissi Letter
Goldman: to escape deflation and for the rally to be sustainable, China's M1 has to overtake its M2.
For that to happen, China will need to unleash a historic credit impulse (record new debt creation, launch QE) and global inflationary shockwave. Source: zerohedge
‼️IN REALITY US JOB MARKET SHED 458,000 PRIVATE JOBS IN SEPTEMBER‼️
Not seasonally adjusted private sector workers FELL by 458,000 in Sep. Government jobs SPIKED 918,000 This largely came as young people left summer jobs and returned to school while teachers went back to work. Source: Global Markets Investor
US job market is cooling down...
US Private businesses added 143,000 workers to their payrolls in September. Adjustment was almost 2x prior Septembers elevating the print,!!! On a non-seasonally adjusted basis payrolls FELL 260,000, the worst September in history. Source: Global Markets Investor
WHAT IS HAPPENING IN GERMANY ???
Most economic data in the world's third-largest economy has come below average economists' expectations over the last 2 years. Germany is also on track for 2nd straight year of SHRINKING GDP, for the 1st time since 2003. Chart: @AugurInfinity thru Global Markets Investor
Total US debt explodes to $35.7 trillion on Oct 1, up $345 billion from Sept 27.
Source: www.zerohedge.com
😱 The shocking chart of the day: US PUBLIC DEBT GROWTH HAS BEEN MASSIVE 😱
In 2008, the US federal debt was $9.4 trillion while the US GDP was $14.7T with the debt-to-GDP ratio at 64%. Now, the public debt is $35.7 TRILLION (Total US debt added another $345 billion between Sept 27 and October 1st...) and the US GDP is $29.0 TRILLION with the debt-to-GDP ratio at 122%... What is the pain thresold for the bond market ??? Source: Global Markets Investor, FRED
