There is now a 70% chance of a 25 bps interest rate cut at this month's FOMC meeting 🚨
Source: Barchart
US Economic Surprises are starting to roll out.
See below yesterday macro numbers - majority of them missed estimates (hard & soft data) *ADP Payrolls: Miss 🔴 *S&P Services PMI: Miss 🔴 *ISM Services PMI: Miss 🔴 *ISM Services Employment: Miss 🔴 *Factory Orders: Miss 🔴 Source: Jessie Cohen
GLOBAL DEBT HIT A NEW RECORD
Global debt rose by over $12 trillion in Q1-Q3 and hit a MASSIVE $322.9 trillion, a new all-time high. Over the last 2 decades, world's debt has TRIPLED. Debt-to-GDP fell to 326%, ~30 percentage points below 2021 record but remains above 2019. Source: Global Markets Investor @GlobalMktObserv
GS: Chart of the Week
Global MAP (economic) Surprise Index Has Fallen Sharply, Driven by Weak Euro Area PMIs and a Plummet in US New Home Sales Source: Mike Zaccardi, CFA, CMT @MikeZaccardi, GS
⚠️US QUITS RATE IS FALLING QUICKLY⚠️
The quits rate, the % of workers voluntarily exiting their jobs fell to 1.9% in September, the lowest since June 2020. Americans are increasingly depending on their current jobs as the hiring pace has declined. Data for October is due today. Source: Global Markets Investor
Office CMBS Delinquency Rate Spikes to 10.4%, Just Below Worst of Financial Crisis Meltdown. Fastest 2-Year Spike Ever.
Office-to-residential conversions are growing, but are minuscule because not many towers are suitable for conversion. Source: www,wolfstreet.com, Wolf Richter
Skiflation in the US
Source: Kyle Asay
Citi U.S. Economic Surprise Index is starting to roll over again
Source: Bloomberg
