Interesting point of view by Dr. Ed Yardeni:
"28 days since the 1st rate cut and 10-Yr. yield is up nearly +60bps. The 1995 Soft Landing rate cut cycle is almost a mirror image, as it also started its descent a few days later, a potential post-election outcome". There is one big difference though: the fiscal 6 debt situation in the US now vs. 1995... Source: Seth Golden @SethCL
US employment numbers are out... and what a miss... 😱
🚨 It is indeed a confusing US jobs report with ugly headline numbers. US economy added just 12k jobs, according to Establishment Survey, far below consensus forecast of +100k and down from +223k in September. 🚨 Private payrolls were negative 28k, below the Street’s +70k forecast and down from +192k in September. 🌪 August was revised down by 81,000, from +159,000 to +78,000, 🌪 September was revised down by 31,000, from +254,000 to +223,000 👉 Odds of a 25 bps Fed cut next week increase per SOFR. Source: HolgerZ, Bloomberg
UNEMPLOYMENT IN GERMANY SPIKED TO THE 2ND-HIGHEST IN 10 YEARS
The number of unemployed people in the world's 3rd largest economy has risen for 22 STRAIGHT MONTH. There are now 2.86 MILLION unemployed people in Germany, the most since the COVID CRISIS. Chart: Global Markets Investor, @AugurInfinity on X
JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon just said the American 🇺🇸economy is still booming and inflation may not go away so quickly
Source: Evan on X
Just in 🔉 Reuters sources: China's leading legislative body weighs approval of new fiscal package exceeding 10 trillion yuan ($1.4 trillion dollars) on November 8
Sources: China intends to approve raising new 10 trillion yuan debt through special treasury and local government bonds in upcoming years. fiscal plan to allocate 6 trillion yuan for local government debt and up to 4 trillion yuan for idle land and property acquisition. China could unveil enhanced fiscal measures if trump secures U.S. presidency.
🚨US FEDERAL DEBT IS SKYROCKETING🚨
The US public debt just hit another RECORD of $35.8 TRILLION. In less than a month, the total debt SPIKED by $700 BILLION. This is $23 BILLION A DAY. To make things worse, these forecasts assume lower interest rates over the next year... Source: Global Markets Investor
The US public debt situation is going to get worse:
US net interest payments as a share of GDP are expected to reach a record 4.6% next year. That would more than DOUBLE World War 2 levels and exceed the all-time highs seen in the 1990s. This is also much higher than net interest as a % of GDP in all 38 OECD countries. Countries with relatively high interest such as Greece, Ireland, Spain, and Portugal are expected to reach interest-to-GDP ratios that are HALF the size of the US. To make things worse, these forecasts assume lower interest rates over the next year. Source: The Kobeissi Letter, OECD, Tavi Costa
⁉️IS THE US DOLLAR RESERVE CURRENCY STATUS STRENGTHENING⁉️
The US Dollar share in global payments jumped to 49% in 2024 the highest since 2012. This is up from ~40% at the beginning of 2022. The Euro share has plummeted to ~21%. The US dollar fall does not look so imminent. Source: Global Markets Investor
