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12 Aug 2024

Tax Revenue vs. GDP for Major Countries

Source: Visual Capitalist

7 Aug 2024

A very important chart which goes AGAINST hard landing scenario

"The source of the rise in the us unemployment rate is not job cuts but a rise in labor supply because of rising immigration. That is the reason why the Sahm rule doesn’t work. The Sahm rule was designed for a decline in labor demand, not a rise in immigration." - Torsten Slok (Apollo) Source: Mike Z. on X

5 Aug 2024

Deutsche Bank: "Why the BOJ has no choice and is merely prolonging the inevitable*

"at a gross balance sheet value of around 500% GDP or $20 trillion, the Japanese government's balance sheet is, simply put, one giant carry trade."

2 Aug 2024

The recessionary trade was in full effect yesterday following weak ISM data.

Cyclicals underperformed Defensives by 429bps, one of the worst days in the last 16+ years. The only other comparable days were during the March 2020 Covid crash and 2008 GFC. $SPY $QQQ $IWM Source: David Marlin, Bloomberg

2 Aug 2024

BREAKING: US job openings declined to 8.18 million in June, down from 8.23 million in May, near their lowest level since 2021.

Year-over-year, job openings fell 10.3%, marking the 23rd consecutive monthly decrease, the longest streak since the 2008 Financial Crisis. The ratio of vacancies per unemployed worker, a metric the Fed follows closely, fell to 1.20, the lowest since June 2021. At the same time, the private sector hiring rate declined to 3.7%, the lowest level since April 2020. The private quits rate, measuring the number of people who voluntarily leave their jobs, fell to 2.3%, the lowest since August 2020. This means that Americans are the least confident that they will find a new job since the 2020 Pandemic. => The US labor market is weakening. Source: The Kobeissi Letter

2 Aug 2024

ISM PMI Employment came in at 43.4.

Only time lower: 1) the internet bubble popping. 2) the GFC. 3) Covid-19. Source: James E. Thorne, Bloomberg

2 Aug 2024

Delinquency rates on Office building loans hit 8.11%, the highest in more than a decade 🚨

Source: Barchart

31 Jul 2024

Total US Federal debt has officially hit $35 trillion for the first time in history.

Since 2020, the US has now added ~$12 TRILLION in Federal debt. In other words, the US has added an average of ~$280 BILLION of Federal debt EVERY MONTH since January 2020. This means that the US now has ~$105,000 in Federal debt for every person living in the country. All while deficit spending as a percentage of GDP is currently at World War 2 levels. Source: The Kobeissi Letter

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