😎 ALMOST NO GLOBAL INVESTORS EXPECT A RECESSION 😎
Only 8% of investors from the BofA survey* expect a hard landing for the global economy within next 12 months, second-lowest reading in 2 years. 76% expect a soft landing. *Survey of 195 participants with $503 billion asset Source: BofA, Global Markets Investor
Are investors underestimating just how behind the curve China is in stimulating its economy?
Looking at the chart below (courtesy of BCA), it seems that a 5% of GDP stimulus package is the minimum needed just to prevent growth from weakening further...
BREAKING: The US money supply hit $21.17 trillion in August, the highest level since January 2023.
This also marks a fifth consecutive monthly increase for the US money supply. Over the last 10 months, the amount of US Dollars in circulation has jumped by a MASSIVE $484 billion. In effect, the money supply is now just $548 billion below a new all-time high. After a brief decline, the quantity of money in the financial system is surging again raising concerns about another inflation wave. Source: The Kobeissi Letter
Turkey is running the narrowest current account deficit since 2021.
Kudos to Finance minister Mehmet Simsek and his economic team for this turnaround. This is an impressive adjustment! Source: Robin Brooks
Food inflation is accelerating
Source: @Kurtsaltrichter on X, www.tradingeconomics.com
😱 The shocking chart of the day: US consumers' inflation expectations for the next 5-10 years skyrocketed to 7.1% in October, the highest in over 40 years.😱
This metric has DOUBLED in just several months, according to the University of Michigan Consumer Survey. To put this into perspective, median inflation expectations have been at ~3% for the last 3 years. Consumer sentiment has been severely damaged by rising prices of necessities, and expectations are getting worse. This comes as core CPI inflation has been above 3% for 41 months, the longest streak since the early 1990s. Inflation is still a major concern for Americans. Source: The Kobeissi Letter
In case you missed it: US September CPI inflation falls to 2.4%, ABOVE expectations of 2.3%.
Core CPI inflation RISES to 3.3%, above expectations of 3.2%. For the first time since March 2023, Core CPI inflation is officially back on the rise. Same story on CPI as previous month: Total is “ok” at +2.4% because energy is collapsing, but core is still +3.3% and Services remain HOT & STICKY at +4.7%. Transport +8.5% Indeed, while September CPI inflation is at 2.4%, inflation is much higher in many basic necessities: 1. Car Insurance Inflation: 16.3% 2. Transportation Inflation: 8.5% 3. Homeowner Inflation: 4.9% 4. Car Repair Inflation: 4.9% 5. Rent Inflation: 4.8% 6. Hospital Services Inflation: 4.5% 7. Food Away From Home Inflation: 3.9% 8. Electricity Inflation: 3.7% Source: Bloomberg, HolgerZ, The Kobeissi Letter
JUST IN 🚨 : China expected to announce a new stimulus package of $283 Billion
Investors are on tenterhooks as Beijing prepares to deliver fresh policies over the weekend that could jumpstart its economy. China’s Finance Minister Lan Fo’an is set to hold a press conference at 10 a.m. on Saturday local time on “intensifying” fiscal stimulus policies, the country’s State Council Information Office said. With Beijing at risk of missing its full year economic growth target of 5%, some analysts are confident that authorities are ready to deliver major fiscal stimulus at the highly anticipated event, while others remain skeptical. Most economists expect some sort of additional stimulus, but there are many differing views on its size as well as the priorities of the package. Some have floated a figure between two and three trillion yuan (the equivalent of $282.8 billion to $424.2 billion), while others have suggested 10 trillion yuan ($1.4 trillion). Source: Barchart, CNBC
