After yesterday jumbo Fed rate cut (days after core CPI MoM reaccelerarting), who doesn't have this chart in mind???
The Second Wave of Inflation. This is what the Fed is thinking but isn't saying out loud. If you expand the dataset to the CPI's of Western economies, 87% of the time there's a second wave. Source. TS Lombard, Eric Hale
Soft landing? Hard landing? Or no landing?
Atlanta Fed Q3 Real GDP growth Nowcast model just hit 3%...
Safe is risky. #DF24
Source: Vala Afshar @ValaAfshar on X, marketoonist.com
The US yield curve continues to steepen.
Yields on 10-year Treasuries are the highest vs 2-year yields going back to 2022. Source: Lisa Abramowitz, Bloomberg
BREAKING: Prediction markets are now pricing-in a 48% chance of a 50 basis point Fed rate cut this week.
Odds of a 50 basis point rate cut have gone from 2% to 48% in just 5 days, according to Kalshi. This will be the first Fed policy decision without a 90%+ consensus since 2020... Source: The Kobeissi Letter
BREAKING: The Restaurant Performance Index (RPI) fell -1.3% in July to 97.7 points, the lowest level since the 2020 lockdowns
This index tracks the health of the restaurant industry in the US by measuring sales, customer traffic, labor, and overall business conditions. Since 2021, this metric has fallen by ~8.0%, marking the largest drop since it was launched in 2002. Such a low level in the index has only been seen during recessions. Americans are pulling back on dining out as prices have been sharply rising and recently hit new all-time highs. Since 2020, food prices away from home have increased by 27.0%, and fast food prices have jumped by 31.0%. Eating out is becoming a luxury... Source: The Kobeissi Letter, Trahan Macro Research
US fiscal stimulus: no surprise, we haven't seen any slowdwn in terms of spending ahead of the elections...
Source: Bloomberg, www.zerohedge.com
🚨US BANKRUPTCIES ARE ON THE RISE🚨
The number of bankruptcy filings hit 452 year-to-date, the 2nd largest in 13 YEARS. In August alone, 63 companies went under, the 4th LARGEST since the COVID CRISIS. Most bankruptcies have been seen in the consumer discretionary sector. Source: Global Markets Investor
