For those who wonder why the German economy is so important for global Macro...
As shown below, their weakening economy will impact the rest of Europe. Source: Michel A.Arouet, The World in maps
China keeps giving. Another rate cut today >>>
*PBOC CUTS 14-DAY REVERSE REPO RATE TO 1.65% FROM 1.85% Meanwhile, Chinese stocks going vertical Source: Bloomberg, David Ingles
BREAKING: The Richmond Fed Manufacturing Employment Index plummeted to 21 points in September, its lowest level since April 2009.
The index has been in contraction for the majority of 2024 and even sits below pandemic lows. Furthermore, employment expectations for the next 6 months fell to -12 points, the lowest since April 2020. Overall business conditions are now at their worst since May 2020 and second-worst since 2008. Source: The Kobeissi Letter, Bloomberg
The US Money Supply grew 2.2% over the last year, the biggest YoY increase since September 2022.
The return of money printing? Source: Charlie Bilello
😱 The "shocking chart" of the day !!! 😱 US CPI index since the 1970's vs its trend line.
In order to 'average' out the recent period of high inflation at 2%, the fed would have to tolerate a period of time of deflation. But can they really afford deflation with $33T of debt and persistently high budget deficit? As mentioned by Peter Boockvar on X, once purchasing power is lost, it is lost forever because central bankers won't let you get it back... Last week, Federal Reserve Governor Chris Waller inadvertently made that perfectly clear when he spoke on Friday. He told CNBC in an interview that "What's got me a little more concerned is inflation is running softer than I thought."... Bottom-line: It is very unlikely that inflation will come back to trend line in the foreseeable future. Perhaps the jumbo rate cut was also about making sure that the US economy doesn't fall into a deflationary trap... Welcome to the era of fiscal dominance Source chart: Bloomberg
Live look at JP Morgan after being the only ones who correctly predicted a 50bps cut:
Source: Trend Spider
Amazing to see the effect of 818K downward jobs revision on the fed dots...
Source: www.zerohedge.com
Among the reasons why the Fed cut 50bps this week:
1) Inflation risk is LOWER than Employment and Consumer risk 2) The sticky component of inflation is shelter. For shelter inflation to go down we need to see more housing supply and for this we need to get lower mortgage rates = jumbo rate cut does help 3) They MUST get front-end rates lower as this colossal wall of debt matures (source: Lawrence McDonald, Bloomberg)
