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👉 A very important chart about global liquidity...
While the fed is still in qt mode (it has decreased the size of its balance sheet by $200B between May and September), the PBOC is in qe mode having increased its balance sheet by $560B between May and September... Ne-net liquidity is increasing. With global central banks cutting rates at the most aggressive pace since the pandemic and with the PBOC expanding the size of its balance sheet almost 3x more than the Fed is reducing it, it will be interesting to see the consequences on inflation + on gold, silver, etc. Source chart: Jeff Weniger
⁉️WHO OWNS THE US PUBLIC DEBT⁉️
~33% of the $35.7 trillion federal debt is held by government funds, including Social Security and the Fed. Over 25% is owned by foreign governments with the most held by Japan and subsequently China. ~15% is held by mutual investment funds. Source: Global Markets Investor
😱 The shocking chart of the day: CHINESE DEBT SIZE IS ABSOLUTELY MIND-BLOWING😱
China's debt-to-GDP ratio hit a MASSIVE 366% in Q1 2024, a new record. Since 2008, the ratio has more than DOUBLED. Breakdown: Non-Financial Corporates: 171% Government: 86% Households: 64% Financial Corporates: 45% Even with this huge debt, China cannot achieve a 5% GDP growth target. How much additional leverage do they need to boost growth? And at what cost? Source: Global Markets Investor, IIF, Wells Fargo
China's Q3 GDP hits weakest pace since early 2023, backs calls for more stimulus
China's economy grew at the slowest pace since early 2023 in the third quarter, and though consumption and factory output figures beat forecasts last month a tumbling property sector remains a major challenge for Beijing as it races to revitalise growth. See below key China GDP data: Q3 GDP 4.6% y/y [Est.+4.5%] Q1-Q3 GDP 4.8% y/y [Prev.+5.0%] Sept retail sales 3.2% y/y [Est.2.5%] Sept industrial growth 5.4% y/y [Est.4.5%] Jan-Sept fixed asset investment 3.4% y/y [Est.3.3%] Sept Unemployment 5.1% [Prev. 5.3%] Source: Reuters, MacroMicro
ECB cut the key rates by 25bps as expected.
Depo rate to 3.25%, Main Refi to 3.4%. Guidance is unchanged: ECB to follow data-dependent, Meeting-by-Meeting approach. • Even after this third rate cut of the year, monetary policy remains restrictive in Europe, with the real short-term rate still at a level not seen over the past 15 years. Given the ongoing dynamics in economic activity and inflation, this implies that the ECB will have to continue to lower rates in the coming months, in order to bring its monetary policy to a neutral stance at minimum. Rate cuts at the coming meetings are therefore to be expected, in December and in the course of 2025. Given the worrying trend in economic activity data, an acceleration in the pace of rate cuts, with a possible 50bp cut at the December meeting, cannot be ruled out. If growth in the Eurozone stalls, a faster pace of rate cuts to remove the restrictiveness of the monetary policy, or even to move it into supportive territory, might prove to be warranted. Source chart: Bloomberg
👉 A SYNCHRONIZED GLOBAL MONETARY POLICY EASING
71% of major central banks are now easing their monetary policy, the most since the 2020 CRISIS. This is also in line with the Financial Crisis and the 2001 recession. Source: BofA
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