Spring is not here yet, but new uncertainties already emerged for investors after a start to the year that has disrupted the established order in many ways. For his first weeks in office, President Trump has lived up to his promises of disruption, on international relations and geopolitics, trade or federal administrations and budgets. Meanwhile, Europe is coming to terms with a shifting global order, where it must swiftly take control of its own destiny—whether in defence, security, or economic reforms. Crucial decisions will have to be made in the coming months, that will require the leadership of Europe’s largest economy, Germany. After February’s elections, the future Chancellor Friedrich Merz must build a coalition and form a government swiftly, while finding ways to finance higher defence spending and to revive the economy after two years of recession. China has been suffering from sluggish growth in the past years as well, and a much-awaited plan to support domestic consumption is still to be announced to balance the impact of rising US tariffs. 

In this context, the month of March opens with four major interrogations:
•    After all the talks, will US tariffs be finally effectively imposed on Mexican, Canadian, Chinese and European goods? Or will the threat of tariffs remain a bargaining tool for President Trump to push US trade partners to efforts and concessions in other domains?
•    Are the recent tentative signs of economic slowdown in the US the beginning of a concerning trend, or merely a temporary soft patch in the robust growth trajectory of the US economy?
•    Will Friedrich Merz make progress in forming a coalition and manage to free up some fiscal room for manoeuvre?
•    Will China finally announce a significant fiscal policy package to spur domestic consumption?

Answers to these key questions could all come within the coming weeks and will have the potential to influence decisively the trajectory of financial markets. As if it were not enough, all major central banks will hold monetary policy meetings in March, with further rate cuts expected in the Eurozone and Switzerland, and an update of the Fed’s economic and rate projections. We review below the key events and data to watch for not being caught off guards over the month. Meanwhile, don’t forget to switch to Daylight Saving Time (9/03 in the US, 30/03 in Europe) as, regardless of all the uncertainties, spring is coming!

After three years of continuous slowdown and weaker economic activity, the Chinses authorities had decided to act in September last year. A policy package designed to facilitate the access to credit, stop the slump of the real estate market and support the equity market was introduced, that has helped economic activity to stabilise China’s economic growth around the 5% rate targeted by the authorities. However, to complement those “supply-side” measures, significant measures to support domestic demand have been expected since then, in vain up to now. The government has hinted several times at some economic policy easing in 2025, but nothing concrete has been announced yet.

This month might be the occasion. In the first week of March, (4/03 and 5/03), China’s 2025 “Two Sessions” will kick off with the aim of setting economic priorities, and more specifically to announce growth, inflation and public spending targets. In a context of rising trade tensions with the US, this might be an occasion for the Chinese government to eventually unveil the long-awaited fiscal stimulus to households and domestic consumption.

The release of the usual monthly data should be taken with a pinch of salt as February data are often affected by the Chinese New Year holiday period. For the record, industrial production, house prices and retail sales data will be released on 17/03, CPI and PPI inflation on 9/03 and the Government PMI for March on 31/03.