Desynchronisation of global macro trends

Chinese authorities have intensified support for the struggling economy as slowing growth makes the 5% GDP target unrealistic.

As we approach the US Presidential election, the race remains highly uncertain, with both candidates neck and neck in the polls. The upcoming debates, along with recent events like Joe Biden's health issues and an assassination attempt on Donald Trump, have added to the unpredictability of this election, which could significantly impact the US economy and financial markets. Let's explore the key issues at stake and how the election outcome may affect equity and bond investments.

The Fed joins the global rate cut cycle.

No summer break for US politic and central bankers

Economic growth is soft, external challenges rise, but China stays the course. This is essentially the conclusion that can be drawn after the Third Plenum and the most recent economic data. The focus of Xi Jinping is not on trying to maximize short-term economic growth, but rather on continuing the transformation and modernization of the economy. As Donald Trump looks set to return to the White House with a new set of tariffs in his MAGA cap, as Europe eventually raises trade barriers of its own, as sanctions on Russia redefine energy and commodity trade flows, China is central to the ongoing emergence of a new world economic order.

Brace for elections in Europe and keep a close eye on inflation.

At the end of an eventful year, the Swiss economy has lived up to its reputation as the European continent's pole of stability in 2023. When the rest of Europe went into recession, Switzerland saw only a moderate slowdown in activity. While inflation in the eurozone reached levels not seen for decades, the pace of price increases in the Swiss Confederation remained largely contained.

As we look toward 2023, the global economic environment continues to be shaped by the aftermath of the pandemic shock. We are still in the midst of a peculiar economic cycle that started with a sudden stop in global economic activity and an unprecedented support from governments and central banks. Inflation has surged this year to levels not seen in decades and has prompted central banks to raise rates in a hurry. Rising prices and higher rates are expected to weigh on global economic activity next year, prompting global growth to cool down further. Some factors support the view that this slowdown will remain contained and that an economic “soft landing” is the most likely scenario after the wild ride of the past three years. However, risks remain clearly tilted to the downside on the economic front for the year to come.

The strength of the greenback is one of the major economic developments of 2022. The US dollar index, which measures the value of the dollar against other major world currencies, is at its highest level in twenty years.