A decisive election in the United States, a summit to radically change economic policies in Europe, and another stimulus package in China: the early days of November will possibly set global economic trends for the coming months and beyond. As the three major areas of the global economy are experiencing diverging dynamics, the upcoming events could help lower the elevated level of uncertainty surrounding 2025’s prospects.

Will the US shift toward a more pro-business stance coupled with trade protectionism, or vote to keep things the way they were during the Biden presidency? Equally significant, will the next US President have the support of the two chambers in the Congress to implement the most ambitious parts of her or his agenda? Will European leaders manage to overcome their national specificities and divergences to embrace the path for reforms paved by Mario Draghi’s report? Will China complement the first part of its stimulus plan with a large-scale plan to support consumption? These are all key questions that will be answered in November and shape the dynamics of the global economy in 2025. Geopolitical risks will also remain prominent, with intensifying diplomatic efforts to lower the level of tensions in the Middle East, and a potential change of the US approach if Donald Trump is elected as the US President. In this heavy-loaded context, economic data release and companies’ earnings publications shouldn’t be forgotten. Several central banks will hold monetary policy meetings, especially the Fed, which will decide whether the result of the US election changes its plan for a continuation of the rate cut cycle initiated in September. Not to forget, Nvidia’s results will be eagerly awaited as a barometer for AI and tech-related global capex. Only by then will investors know whether they can be thankful for the month of November at the Thanksgiving table.

The first week of November will see major political events in the world’s three largest economic areas that will have important implications for economic developments in the coming months. The US Presidential and Congress election (5/11) will finally bring answers to questions that have increasingly influenced markets in the past weeks. The two candidates have radically different agendas, with key implications for the future of the US and the global economy. Donald Trump appears to enjoy favourable momentum in the last stretch of the campaign, but the Presidential election will depend on votes in a handful of swing states. The outcome will likely remain uncertain until the election, and uncertainty could also persist for some days or weeks in case of very close results.

Additionally, the elections for the House of Representatives and the Senate will define the capacity of the new President to implement some the most emblematic measures of their agenda. While the Senate appears very likely to be held by Republicans, the uncertainty prevails on the future majority in the House of Representatives. A Trump presidency with a Republican majority in both chambers would likely be more disruptive for economic policies in the coming years than a Trump or Harris presidency with a split Congress (Republican Senate and Democrat House of Representatives).

Interestingly, in the days following the US election, European and Chinese leaders will hold talks that may also have important impacts on future economic policies. EU heads of states will hold an “informal meeting” in Budapest (8/11) to discuss the recommendations of the Draghi report on the future of EU competitiveness. Coordinated actions and joint European financing for large investment spendings are required to improve the European growth outlook, but this debate arises in a difficult political context where recent elections have shown a diminishing popular support for European policies. The Budapest meeting will signal whether Europe is ready to radically change its economic policies going forward. At the same time, China’s NPC standing Committee will gather and might announce a significant fiscal support to domestic demand, to complement the first part of the stimulus package announced in September. All those events will have important implications, especially on the public debt front as fiscal policy will likely be the dominant feature of economic policies in the years ahead.