*TACO: “Trump Always Chickens Out” - **WACO: “World Always Chickens Out”

Electric vehicles were surging, until Washington abruptly hit the brakes. Now the US faces a precipice in its adoption curve. Will it recover or fall behind?

At the end of 2024, we identified 10 potential events and surprises likely to impact financial markets and the global economy this year. These are not forecasts, but potential macro-economic, geopolitical or market events that are not anticipated by the financial markets. As these developments unfold, their implications could ripple across asset classes, reshaping investor expectations and global economic dynamics.

Tesla robotaxis are now common in Austin, but frequent mishaps show the tech still lags behind Alphabet’s safer, fully driverless Waymo, already operating in multiple US cities.

The first half of 2025 proved that nothing in crypto is ever business as usual. A newly crypto-friendly US administration brought easier regulations, meme tokens like TRUMP made headlines and Circle’s IPO broke industry records. This outlook reflects on the highlights of 2025 before presenting potential scenarios for the second half.

H2 2025

Circle’s rapid rise as a stablecoin issuer, highlighted by a record-breaking IPO and expanding institutional adoption, mirrors a broader shift toward regulated digital finance. The GENIUS Act, passed in June 2025, reinforces this momentum by introducing strict standards for transparency, reserves, and consumer protection, positioning stablecoins as core components of the future financial system.

Visa and Mastercard dominate credit card transactions, charging US merchants significantly higher fees than elsewhere. Unsurprisingly, US merchants are desperate to escape these hundreds of billions in costs.

As global competition intensifies, China’s dominance over rare earth elements has become one of the most potent tools in its geopolitical arsenal. By controlling the extraction, refining, and global supply chains of these critical materials, Beijing holds extraordinary leverage over key sectors like defence, clean energy, AI, and electric vehicles, forcing the West into a high-stakes race to reduce its dangerous dependency.

On 23 June 2025, Holcim will separate into two distinct entities: Amrize and Holcim. Shareholders will receive one share of Amrize for each share of Holcim held (1:1 ratio). Amrize will comprise Holcim’s North America operations, while the remaining company—Holcim (RemainCo)—will retain all assets and operations outside the United States and Canada.